PECOTA standings predict Reds to win NL Central

[RedsFanInMS]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

[M2]

Ladies and gentlemen, I present your 2020 NL central PECOTA champions.

[RedsManRick]

It doesn't count for anything but it does feel good. If only the error bars on even the best projection systems weren't like 10ish games.

[DocRed]

Hope they are right but I just looked at their 2019 predictions and they were off by 10 or more games on 10 of the teams (2 by 20+ games)

[scotly50]

This is the same system that picked the Royals to finish last in their division, the back-to-back years they were in the World Series.

[GADawg]

This is the same system that picked the Royals to finish last in their division, the back-to-back years they were in the World Series.

I don’t know anything at all about how all that works but it looks like it’d be hard to factor in that bullpen they had and it’s usage

[Powel Crosley]

I'd feel pretty comfortable with taking the over on wins.

[Falls City Beer]

I don’t know anything at all about how all that works but it looks like it’d be hard to factor in that bullpen they had and it’s usage

My guess is this happens a lot though. It’s not even a problem with the “system.” Just too many black swans.

[BCubb2003]

My guess is this happens a lot though. It’s not even a problem with the “system.” Just too many black swans.

The Black Swans could surprise some people this year.

[Strikes Out Looking]

Cubs and Pirates won't win as many as that projection.

[kaldaniels]

The same PECOTA that has Shogo with the 2nd best BA in baseball?

[Bob Sheed]

:koolaidman:

[M2]

The same PECOTA that has Shogo with the 2nd best BA in baseball?

I'm loving PECOTA this year.

[Roy Tucker]

Bill Pecota publishes predictions?

[Powel Crosley]

Just looked up that they had us winning 84 games last year, with a 0 run differential.