When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

[UPRedsFan]

Essential employers are doing things now to protect their workforce (ex. food manufacturers who are keeping our grocery stores stocked).They are taking temps of employees at the door, quarantining anyone with symptoms and doing case management before they are allowed to return to work, quarantining anyone who has a family member at home with COVID19, quarantining anyone who tests positive and quarantining their close co-workers, requiring wearing of masks, enforcing social distancing (no meetings, no grouping together in break rooms or at the smoke shack), regular disinfecting protocol, travel restrictions, restricting visitors/vendors access, enhanced paid leave to keep people out of the workplace who shouldn't be there, etc. etc.

There have to be smart ways to gradually lift restrictions while still protecting the vulnerable population. We can't continue to sit on our couches all summer or longer and wait for the government to take care of us. I'm not saying lift all restrictions now. I'm saying begin to plan for gradual, targeted, regional, lifting and soon. Baseball playing games initially without fans seems like a reasonable example of that.

[Wonderful Monds]

Correct. The projection of 100,000 - 240,000 included social distancing.

Are we doing social distancing better than they thought we would? Or did the experts over-estimate or base their model on imperfect data from other countries? I’m guessing 60,000 will not be the projection either as more data comes in.

That’s what they’ve said yeah. They expected about 50% would comply with social distancing and we’ve apparently done much better than that.

[UPRedsFan]

That’s what they’ve said yeah. They expected about 50% would comply with social distancing and we’ve apparently done much better than that.

Yea, I've heard that theory. I just don't know how they have data to support it. Regardless it's good news and gives hope that we'll see some change this summer.

[Wonderful Monds]

Yea, I've heard that theory. I just don't know how they have data to support it. Regardless it's good news and gives hope that we'll see some change this summer.

They analyzed people’s movement based on cell phone tower data and Ohio had one of the biggest differences pre and post quarantine. I know that was one of the things they used.

[Falls City Beer]

Another thing lending greater obscurity than clarity is not just the social distancing assumptions being inaccurate but also the wide variations in modeling. Long story short: they just didn’t and don’t know. And at least they’re being honest about that. They don’t know.

[UPRedsFan]

They analyzed people’s movement based on cell phone tower data and Ohio had one of the biggest differences pre and post quarantine. I know that was one of the things they used.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...s-us-by-state/

Look at the death rates by state. Such a huge variance and yet most states have been doing social distancing for roughly the same length of time. Look at California or Texas vs. New York. 32 per 100,000 vs. 1 per 100,000. Social distancing explains all of that? Californians did social distancing that much better than New Yorkers? You would expect a higher death rate in NY and NJ just because of the population density. But 32 to 1? Maybe it does. But that's just a huge difference that deserves more explanation. If their model projections were reduced this week entirely due to social distancing success, then what explains NY vs. California? Did the original model really predict that big of a difference between those two states? Perhaps there was more wrong with their original model like maybe they didn't account for the wide variance in population density across the country or they overestimated how lethal the virus was.

[BuckeyeRed27]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...s-us-by-state/

Look at the death rates by state. Such a huge variance and yet most states have been doing social distancing for roughly the same length of time. Look at California or Texas vs. New York. 32 per 100,000 vs. 1 per 100,000. Social distancing explains all of that? Californians did social distancing that much better than New Yorkers? You would expect a higher death rate in NY and NJ just because of the population density. But 32 to 1? Maybe it does. But that's just a huge difference that deserves more explanation. If their model projections were reduced this week entirely due to social distancing success, then what explains NY vs. California? Did the original model really predict that big of a difference between those two states? Perhaps there was more wrong with their original model like maybe they didn't account for the wide variance in population density across the country or they overestimated how lethal the virus was.

All that matters is did you swamp the medical system? New York did. Wuhan did. Northern Italy did. Iran did. California didn't.

[JohnnyRed]

A man can only watch so many pre season games from early march before they itch for real live regular season games!!!! Argh. I'm all for the games in Arizona and if maybe Florida without crowds, give me baseball!!! Lol

[Captain Hook]

Essential employers are doing things now to protect their workforce (ex. food manufacturers who are keeping our grocery stores stocked).They are taking temps of employees at the door, quarantining anyone with symptoms and doing case management before they are allowed to return to work, quarantining anyone who has a family member at home with COVID19, quarantining anyone who tests positive and quarantining their close co-workers, requiring wearing of masks, enforcing social distancing (no meetings, no grouping together in break rooms or at the smoke shack), regular disinfecting protocol, travel restrictions, restricting visitors/vendors access, enhanced paid leave to keep people out of the workplace who shouldn't be there, etc. etc.

There have to be smart ways to gradually lift restrictions while still protecting the vulnerable population. We can't continue to sit on our couches all summer or longer and wait for the government to take care of us. I'm not saying lift all restrictions now. I'm saying begin to plan for gradual, targeted, regional, lifting and soon. Baseball playing games initially without fans seems like a reasonable example of that.

This has to be the approach that is adopted. It’s lazy and irresponsible to say “everyone needs to stay home” and that’s it, end of story. I’m not saying we need to force the issue but let’s start being as proactive at getting life moving again as we were a month ago when all the restrictions were put into place.

[UPRedsFan]

All that matters is did you swamp the medical system? New York did. Wuhan did. Northern Italy did. Iran did. California didn't.

An explanation of the huge difference between NY and California matters if we're going to accept continued shutdown orders until June for the whole country (including the large swath that hasn't swamped their medical systems). We deserve more explanation and data.

[BuckeyeRed27]

An explanation of the huge difference between NY and California matters if we're going to accept continued shutdown orders until June for the whole country (including the large swath that hasn't swamped their medical systems). We deserve more explanation and data.

Yes we need a ton more testing. That’s really the whole thing, both backwards and forward looking. It’s a big big problem.

[marcshoe]

We can still have fans in the stadium, one per row. Staggered on opposite ends, of course.

[Chip R]

I know MLB said that they won't come back until the local and state officials say that it is OK but I just hope MLB doesn't strongarm these officials into saying everything is OK when it might not be.

On the other hand, baseball has been kind of a whipping boy over the past few years. The game's too slow, the players cheat, it's anti-fun, etc. Now people are pining for it to come back. I don't deny baseball has problems but people are really wanting it to come back no matter what.

[Ron Gant]

I know MLB said that they won't come back until the local and state officials say that it is OK but I just hope MLB doesn't strongarm these officials into saying everything is OK when it might not be.

On the other hand, baseball has been kind of a whipping boy over the past few years. The game's too slow, the players cheat, it's anti-fun, etc. Now people are pining for it to come back. I don't deny baseball has problems but people are really wanting it to come back no matter what.

Lol, MLB is not going to strong arm anyone. They don't have anywhere near that type of power. The NFL? Well that's a different story.

[NebraskaRed]

We can still have fans in the stadium, one per row. Staggered on opposite ends, of course.

In the industry, this is known as Average Cincinnati Reds Attendance 2015-2019