I have anxiety for sure, I’m hanging in there but I have moments where I am just struggling. Thank god for my wife and kids.Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds
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Science is saying this will probably go on for 18 months.
What would you say.....ya do here?
18 months isn't a lifetime.
It’ll be around in the sense that the virus will be around for that long, but we’ll have ways of dealing with it before then that’ll help immensely even before we get a vaccine. There’s those couple of anti-virals that have been pretty successful in certain areas, we’ll end up building some kind of herd immunity during that time as well. Things like that.
They’re already playing baseball in Korea. China is opening their stores back up and things like that. Japan has been trucking along mostly as normal the entire time. We’ll get it together sooner than later.
I知 no expert, but I figure baseball痴 best chance is a half season beginning about July 1, and we値l know that by June 1. Otherwise, maybe some odd late summer getting-ready-for-expanded-playoffs series of games. If not one of those, then wait till next year.
The number of unknown unknowns is staggering. This stuff could (though probably won’t) wrap up in 4 weeks. It could come in waves and intermittently haunt us for over a year (seems fairly likely given lax response overall). Anyone acting as if they know is a charlatan. That’s the source of the anxiety. Understandably.
Yeah nobody knows and it’s uncomfortable, but I’m gonna push back against the “so therefore the pessimistic scenario is more likely” conclusion you’ve drawn here. There are reasons to believe we’ll be able to address this fairly effectively at some point at the very least sooner than that. Beyond that, the whole point of all this was never to make it go away or contain it, we’re basically releasing it in a controlled manner through the population so the hospitals can deal with it.
And a lax response would lead to it being over more quickly anyway, it would lead to more deaths and we’d end up like Italy, but it would run its course more quickly and the curve would come all at once basically.
I’m not drawing the worst case conclusion. There are much worse. Mine is pretty likely given the facts—slow response—and the underlying desire to return the economy to normality. I suspect they’ll try to get some of the season in. But that the disease will rebound some later in year. I think they’ll probably do a shortened season and finish it. But I’m just spitballing.
It is two seasons of baseball
What would you say.....ya do here?
It’s only pretty likely if you selectively pick the evidence that suggests that’s our most likely outcome. Like I said earlier, there’s a lot of equally compelling evidence to suggest we’ll end up with the most preferable result. Beyond what I already mentioned, if it does rebound we’ll have much greater testing capabilities and therapies to deal with it at that point. Even putting that aside, Fauci and multiple other doctors and researchers have stated that a major recurrence is unlikely anyway.
I think there will be a clamor to end the lockdowns sooner rather than later, and that might not be necessarily such a good thing. It seems like it値l be a bumpy reopening: some signs of progress, open up a little, relief but the return of cases, tighten up until more progress, etc. It also seems like baseball and other entertainments will be later to come on line than other social needs. (Trying to keep a baseball theme in my answers here.)
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Some choose to sit firmly on the left, some choose to sit firmly on the right
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I don’t think there’s enough evidence to say either way. That’s my point. I have *my* spitballing guess but I don’t have any clue if it’s likely. Anyone saying this or that is more likely is shooting in the dark. Entirely too many unknowns.
I agree. They are going to open restaurants and bars entirely too early and get a bunch of at risk people killed.
What would you say.....ya do here?
I feel you. I would say that while there are a lot of unknowns, there is enough evidence to make a somewhat educated guess. We can see what is working in other countries. Researchers who know more than I do about it are making these kind of projections. That’s all I’m saying. I don’t believe we are completely 100% in the dark.
I think at some point we’re going to have to have a mixed quarantine guideline. The elderly and at risk will be directed to maintain social distancing, while things like that reopen for everyone else. There are a few epidemiologists advocating for that approach. The economy is going to kind of demand that though otherwise we’ll be looking at Great Depression levels of unemployment.
KYExtemper (03-23-2020)
I think you're right Monds. This country won't lay down for 18 months waiting on a vaccine or even 6 months. We can't. People won't. They need to work, our kids need to be educated, and businesses and manufacturers need to produce. Slow the spread for awhile (a month or two?) and then we've gotta get going again with caution for the vulnerable.
Falls City Beer (03-22-2020),westofyou (03-22-2020),Wonderful Monds (03-22-2020)
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