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Thread: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

  1. #286
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I'm not trying to be an ass in pointing this out but everywhere (granted it's just the main articles that come up on Google) I read the number was in the 900's today, not 1000.
    I didn't say "1,000 Americans died yesterday". I said....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    1,000 Americans will die in a couple days.
    And 3 days after that we'll have 2,000 die a day, and 3 days after that it'll be 4,000. The numbers will continue to climb as new cities start getting ravaged by it.

    What's happening in NYC is coming to Detroit, Chicago, LA, New Orleans, Miami as we speak. And it will continue to break out in every other major city. Why is that the case? Because, we have tens of thousands (probably hundreds of thousands) of Americans infected with the virus in those cities. Many of those people did not go into self isolation a month ago - so they spread it.

    At the moment the CDC is estimating that every infected American is spreading it to 2.5 non-infected Americans every 3 days, then those 2.5 are each spreading it to 2.5 other non-infected Americans every 3 days, and so on.

    We'll continue to see the numbers climb until we've either tested and found all those who have the virus and isolate them from continuing to spread it, or we'll continue to see the numbers climb until our healthcare system becomes too overwhelmed, or we'll continue to see the numbers climb until a vaccine arrives (or hopefully the heat of summer stomps on it - which is double edged, because it would likely return in the fall).
    Last edited by Kinsm; 03-28-2020 at 08:09 AM.


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  3. #287
    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Yesterday was Day #12 of the Executive Branch's 15-day social-distancing plan:

    COVID Tracking Project ---> Official Figures (tallied from each state's health department)

    Day# - Date 2020 DofW - Positive - Negative - Pos + Neg - Pending - Hospitalized - Deaths - Total Tests

    Day 12 - 27 Mar 2020 Fri - 99,447 - 527,220 - 626,667 - 60,094 - 12,036 - 1,530 - 686,761
    Day 11 - 26 Mar 2020 Thu - 80,735 - 438,603 - 519,338 - 60,251 - 10,131 - 1,163 - 579,589
    Day 10 - 25 Mar 2020 Wed - 63,675 - 355,135 - 418,810 - 14,735 - 6,136 - 887 - 433,545
    Day 9 - 24 Mar 2020 Tue - 51,970 - 292,758 - 344,728 - 14,433 - 4,468 - 675 - 359,161
    Day 8 - 23 Mar 2020 Mon - 42,164 - 237,321 - 279,485 - 14,571 - 3,325 - 471 - 294,056
    Day 7 - 22 Mar 2020 Sun - 31,888 - 193,463 - 225,351 - 2,842 - 2,554 - 398 - 228,193
    Day 6 - 21 Mar 2020 Sat - 23,203 - 155,909 - 179,112 - 3,477 - 1,964 - 272 - 182,589
    Day 5 - 20 Mar 2020 Fri - 17,038 - 118,147 - 135,185 - 3,336 - unk - 219 - 138,521
    Day 4 - 19 Mar 2020 Thu - 11,723 - 89,119 - 100,842 - 3,025 - unk - 160 - 103,867
    Day 3 - 18 Mar 2020 Wed - 7,731 - 66,225 - 73,956 - 2,538 - unk - 112 - 76,495
    Day 2 - 17 Mar 2020 Tue - 5,723 - 47,604 - 53,327 - 1,687 - unk - 90 - 54,957
    Day 1 - 16 Mar 2020 Mon - 4,019 - 36,104 - 40,123 - 1,691 - unk - 71 - 41,714
    ~16% of those tested thus far are testing positive.
    ~14% of those who are reporting positive are serious enough (at the moment - have to assume some will get worse) to enter a hospital or a morgue.


    NOTE: These figures are through 4 pm EST Friday.
    Last edited by Kinsm; 03-28-2020 at 08:05 AM.

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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    We still aren't clamping down though, are we? Even right here in SW Ohio (which has been a leader in shutting down things) you can go hit up your local golf course with your friends.

    If that doesn't float your boat, you can hit up a packed Kroger at noon.
    What do you do about food then, if you feel going to the grocery store is too big a risk? I have followed the guidelines of the social distancing protocol, but I can't go without food. I was not one of the lucky ones that got 30 dozen eggs, and hoarded all supplies. It is a necessity for some businesses to remain open especially grocery stores. At some point common sense has gotta take over. IMO you should respect peoples space,wash and sanitize your hands, stay inside as much as possible, and use common sense as to when you go out.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    I really hope your are correct, I disagree with you though. I see zero reason for the comments about a multi billion $ business opening back up in May or June, I find them to not just be optimistic but foolish.

    And FYI: If you want to come back in a couple of months and say I told you so if the virus does dissipate. I'll be ecstatic, because that means it didn't get worse and the hodgepodge of "social distancing" orders that have been put in place across the country worked. It means, my family and friends will be okay.

    For the record, I think the social distancing orders have been a joke in this country from the beginning, and still are in most places..
    I may be being optimistic because none of us really no much about this disease. There are so many unanswered questions. Will it go away as it gets hotter? How long has it been in the United States? How many people have already had it? Will people favor the economy over peoples lives if things aren't any better? I for one agree that social distancing guidelines have been a joke.

    I have no more an idea then anyone else, but choose to remain positive to not go insane.
    Last edited by Rdirtypirates; 03-28-2020 at 08:28 AM.

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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    I didn't say "1,000 Americans died yesterday". I said....



    And 3 days after that we'll have 2,000 die a day, and 3 days after that it'll be 4,000. The numbers will continue to climb as new cities start getting ravaged by it.

    What's happening in NYC is coming to Detroit, Chicago, LA, New Orleans, Miami as we speak. And it will continue to break out in every other major city. Why is that the case? Because, we have tens of thousands (probably hundreds of thousands) of Americans infected with the virus in those cities. Many of those people did not go into self isolation a month ago - so they spread it.

    At the moment the CDC is estimating that every infected American is spreading it to 2.5 non-infected Americans every 3 days, then those 2.5 are each spreading it to 2.5 other non-infected Americans every 3 days, and so on.

    We'll continue to see the numbers climb until we've either tested and found all those who have the virus and isolate them from continuing to spread it, or we'll continue to see the numbers climb until our healthcare system becomes too overwhelmed, or we'll continue to see the numbers climb until a vaccine arrives (or hopefully the heat of summer stomps on it - which is double edged, because it would likely return in the fall).
    Wait - "but we aren't doing nothing" .... So you say the models are accurate, but they are models if we did nothing. But now you use the same infection rates, use the geometric doubling as if nothing is nothing is being done that those models were based on.

    CAKE AND EAT TOOOO .....

  6. #290
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Wait - "but we aren't doing nothing" .... So you say the models are accurate, but they are models if we did nothing. But now you use the same infection rates, use the geometric doubling as if nothing is nothing is being done that those models were based on.

    CAKE AND EAT TOOOO .....
    I really, don't have any idea what you are saying right now. One figure was from an earlier model. Another figure is from what is actually happening right now.

  7. #291
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rdirtypirates View Post
    What do you do about food then, if you feel going to the grocery store is too big a risk? I have followed the guidelines of the social distancing protocol, but I can't go without food. I was not one of the lucky ones that got 30 dozen eggs, and hoarded all supplies. It is a necessity for some businesses to remain open especially grocery stores. At some point common sense has gotta take over. IMO you should respect peoples space,wash and sanitize your hands, stay inside as much as possible, and use common sense as to when you go out.



    I may be being optimistic because none of us really no much about this disease. There are so many unanswered questions. Will it go away as it gets hotter? How long has it been in the United States? How many people have already had it? Will people favor the economy over peoples lives if things aren't any better? I for one agree that social distancing guidelines have been a joke

    I have no more an idea then anyone else, but choose to remain positive to not go insane.
    I assume the first question was rhetorical. Yes, you have to go to the grocery store right now (or hoard - which I don't recommend). The only way around that would be to do what China did, where every citizen was isolated in their homes for 8 weeks - a shrouded gun toting soldier brought you canned goods to your door, if you or someone in your household got sick - they removed you from your residence - took you to the hospital (I hope).

    Respecting people's space, washing hands, staying inside, common sense ---- ALL GREAT RECOMMENDATIONS. All advice that our best educated medical professionals are giving us.

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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    And all major cities will continue to get hit with a lot of stuff, the question is whether or not this new thing makes it unbearable on the healthcare system.

    Rubbish? First of all, the study you are referencing is from the CDC, it estimated that as many as 2 million Americans could die (by Christmas 2020) if we had done absolutely nothing. That means no closing of restaurants, no sports teams closing, no beaches closed, no social distancing orders, no ordering of more medical equipment, no shutdown of the airline system, etc..

    We didn't do nothing, now did we?

    If you are able to get in a time machine, go back a month, and prevent all of our politicians from doing anything and see what happens then you can come tell us if that model from the CDC was rubbish. I for one, believe that if 160 million Americans had continued to go to work everyday, had 80 million kids kept going to school, had tens of millions packed amusement parks, beaches, and stadiums, had we not emergency ordered millions of kits, gloves, masks, swabs, ect... that number seems more than reasonable. Because in that scenario you can bet your rear end our healthcare system would have become exhausted due to the sheer number of those infected.

    I have no idea where you're getting that NY infection rate. Thus far 15% of all those tested have come up positive, there are probably tens of thousands of New Yorkers infected right now we don't know about.
    You talk about the 15% of those tested come up positive - fine. But not everyone is getting tested.

    The numbers epidemiologists are using currently in NY is that 1 in 1000 are infected. That is far different than 15%. So if the health officials in Ohio saying 100K are infected 2 weeks ago, with a population of a little over 10 million, that is about one percent for easy of argument. But even in a state that is heavily urbanized like NY they are talking 1 in 1000 or .1%. That is a factor of 10.

    When asked about where they came up with the 100K number, the Ohio health officials said that - 1% of the population was the number they were using because that is what the stats showed in other countries. So Ohio's regulations and recommendations were based on 1% of the population being already infected. But if the overall infection number is a scale of 10 less, the numbers they shot out are just way off. Just like the mortality rate of 4% to 5% is showing to be way off.

  9. #293
    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    You talk about the 15% of those tested come up positive - fine. But not everyone is getting tested.

    The numbers epidemiologists are using currently in NY is that 1 in 1000 are infected. That is far different than 15%. So if the health officials in Ohio saying 100K are infected 2 weeks ago, with a population of a little over 10 million, that is about one percent for easy of argument. But even in a state that is heavily urbanized like NY they are talking 1 in 1000 or .1%. That is a factor of 10.

    When asked about where they came up with the 100K number, the Ohio health officials said that - 1% of the population was the number they were using because that is what the stats showed in other countries. So Ohio's regulations and recommendations were based on 1% of the population being already infected. But if the overall infection number is a scale of 10 less, the numbers they shot out are just way off. Just like the mortality rate of 4% to 5% is showing to be way off.
    1 in 1000 would equate to 336,000 Americans infected....we are already at 99,000 with only 626,000 results been done thus far.

    Now you tell me again if that 1 in 1000 figure seems realistic to you.

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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    I really, don't have any idea what you are saying right now. One figure was from an earlier model. Another figure is from what is actually happening right now.
    Well maybe I wasn't real clear, so lets try again.

    The transmission rate they are using is 2.5 infected per person that is a carrier. Then those 2.5 infect and the those infect and on and on. a geometric progression. But the 2.5 is based on normal life happening. But mitigation isn't normal life.

    So in one post you claim the numbers are accurate because they were based on no mitigation, but now we are doing something and then turn around and use no mitigation numbers to prove your point after just saying the numbers are currently off because we are doing something.

    You can't defend numbers based on non mitigated and then use those same non mitigated numbers to hype how bad it will be. That is having your cake and eating it to.
    Last edited by Kinsm; 03-28-2020 at 08:48 AM.

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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    1 in 1000 would equate to 336,000 Americans infected....we are already at 99,000 with only 626,000 results been done thus far.

    Now you tell me again if that 1 in 1000 figure seems realistic to you.
    We don't really know. That is my point.

    But those are the numbers coming out of NY. And that is the place where the most testing has been done. So if anyplace has a chance to be accurately represented - that is the place currently.

  12. #296
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Well maybe I wasn't real clear, so lets try again.

    The transmission rate they are using is 2.5 infected per person that is a carrier. Then those 2.5 infect and the those infect and on and on. a geometric progression. But the 2.5 is based on normal life happening. But mitigation isn't normal life.

    So in one post you claim the numbers are accurate because they were based on no mitigation, but now we are doing something and then turn around and use no mitigation numbers to prove your point after just saying the numbers are currently off because we are doing something.

    You can't defend numbers based on non mitigated and then use those same non mitigated numbers to hype how bad it will be. That is having your cake and eating it to.

    Those figures from the CDC are based on current mitigation. I assume those figures will drop in their models as we; A. Weed out and isolate those infected and B. Continue to shut things down (I'll point out that many states still aren't on an "essential" only basis).

    It's called MATH.

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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Just went to look up some numbers - NY has approx 45K confirmed as of this morning. 20 million population. Looks like a .225% when you do the math. Heavily urbanized with the bulk of those results coming out of the most densely populated area.

    Is it possible that the overall rate in less urbanized areas could be half of that or about .112% - yeah it is reasonable.

    Ohio is not NY - thank god

  14. #298
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    NY has found everyone infected - they've stopped the spread, well that's good to know. <----Sarcasm, if you didn't catch that.

    And I'm not sure why you removed the thousands of confirmed cases in the surrounding areas from your figures but included those areas total population, but too each his own.

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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    And for the record, for anyone who may be confused, this virus doesn't care about urban density....all it takes is 1 infected person to have traveled to Lebanaon Ohio (as an example) to take root and spread. The spread will just be slower, but it will spread (assuming non compliance with a total 100% lockdown).

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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    NY has found everyone infected - they've stopped the spread, well that's good to know. <----Sarcasm, if you didn't catch that.

    And I'm not sure why you removed the thousands of confirmed cases in the surrounding areas from your figures but included those areas total population, but too each his own.
    Are you trying to tell me that NY doesn't have approximately 20 million people???

    Guess Google's 19.54 million in 2018 is just a bad number. 45K confirmed in NY state. 20 million population. Apples to Apples. Nothing removed nothing added


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