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Thread: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

  1. #301
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    I didn't say "1,000 Americans died yesterday". I said....



    And 3 days after that we'll have 2,000 die a day, and 3 days after that it'll be 4,000. The numbers will continue to climb as new cities start getting ravaged by it.

    What's happening in NYC is coming to Detroit, Chicago, LA, New Orleans, Miami as we speak. And it will continue to break out in every other major city. Why is that the case? Because, we have tens of thousands (probably hundreds of thousands) of Americans infected with the virus in those cities. Many of those people did not go into self isolation a month ago - so they spread it.

    At the moment the CDC is estimating that every infected American is spreading it to 2.5 non-infected Americans every 3 days, then those 2.5 are each spreading it to 2.5 other non-infected Americans every 3 days, and so on.

    We'll continue to see the numbers climb until we've either tested and found all those who have the virus and isolate them from continuing to spread it, or we'll continue to see the numbers climb until our healthcare system becomes too overwhelmed, or we'll continue to see the numbers climb until a vaccine arrives (or hopefully the heat of summer stomps on it - which is double edged, because it would likely return in the fall).
    I know you didn’t say that but you replied to a post that said so without noticing and then you mentioned you are going off the numbers reported everyday - I was suprised you didn't notice that. Truthfully my post wasn’t intended to be directed at your post but it seemed that claim was being accepted so I just put that out there.


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  3. #302
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Try this link for Germany where the most testing has gone on.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=msedgdhp

    53K confirmed cases 83 million population => .06%

    Does .1% seem to be a reasonable number to use => yes

    But it sure isn't quite the 1% figure the health official in Ohio were feeding to the media
    Last edited by jup; 03-28-2020 at 09:26 AM.

  4. #303
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Just went to look up some numbers - NY has approx 45K confirmed as of this morning. 20 million population. Looks like a .225% when you do the math. Heavily urbanized with the bulk of those results coming out of the most densely populated area.

    Is it possible that the overall rate in less urbanized areas could be half of that or about .112% - yeah it is reasonable.

    Ohio is not NY - thank god
    The confirmed cases mean absolutely nothing with regard to how many people overall have this.

    Canít believe this continues to have to be said.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  5. #304
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Try this link for Germany where the most testing has gone on.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=msedgdhp

    53K confirmed cases 83 million population => .06%

    Does .1% seem to be a reasonable number to use => yes

    But it sure isn't quite the 1% figure the health official in Ohio were feeding to the media
    Here’s another number for you. Of the 621,354 CONFIRMED cases worldwide 28,429 have passed away. That is a 4.6% mortality rate, which is significantly higher than the numbers that have been thought before of 1% or so.

    People trying to downplay the seriousness of this virus:

    WAKE. UP.

    You are going to get people killed by thinking this is just the flu and going about your business. Seriously.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  6. #305
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    And for the record, for anyone who may be confused, this virus doesn't care about urban density....all it takes is 1 infected person to have traveled to Lebanaon Ohio (as an example) to take root and spread. The spread will just be slower, but it will spread (assuming non compliance with a total 100% lockdown).
    But slowness is exactly the crux of the issue.

  7. #306
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    The confirmed cases mean absolutely nothing with regard to how many people overall have this.

    Can’t believe this continues to have to be said.
    Correct.

    But as testing gets more thorough, the more the confirmed approaches the actual number of infections. So you look to where the testing has been the most complete - like NY and countries like Germany or South Korea, and use those numbers as your current best guess basis. And those numbers are saying that original estimates could be off by a factor of 10.

    And the best news is it is a factor of 10 to the downside not upside
    Last edited by jup; 03-28-2020 at 09:36 AM.

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  9. #307
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Here’s another number for you. Of the 621,354 CONFIRMED cases worldwide 28,429 have passed away. That is a 4.6% mortality rate, which is significantly higher than the numbers that have been thought before of 1% or so.

    People trying to downplay the seriousness of this virus:

    WAKE. UP.

    You are going to get people killed by thinking this is just the flu and going about your business. Seriously.
    But that doesn't count all the cases. So the mortality rate of the confirmed cases may run 4% or 5%. But that is not the mortality rate of the virus itself. Which looks to be closer to 1% to 2%.

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  11. #308
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Here’s another number for you. Of the 621,354 CONFIRMED cases worldwide 28,429 have passed away. That is a 4.6% mortality rate, which is significantly higher than the numbers that have been thought before of 1% or so.

    People trying to downplay the seriousness of this virus:

    WAKE. UP.

    You are going to get people killed by thinking this is just the flu and going about your business. Seriously.
    This is very serious and it’s not the flu.

    But the answer to (deaths)/(confirmed cases) - which is the mortality rate you are posting - sadly means nothing right now if we aren’t testing enough people. It’s all we got right now - but that doesn’t make it accurate.

  12. #309
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    But that doesn't count all the cases. So the mortality rate of the confirmed cases may run 4% or 5%. But that is not the mortality rate of the virus itself. Which looks to be closer to 1% to 2%.
    Correct, but we also don’t know how many people have died of this without being confirmed. Especially in places like China where you can’t trust one data point. There might be a million dead Chinese people because of COVID already and would anyone seriously be surprised?

    Let’s say the mortality rate is 2%.

    We are going to act like that’s no big deal?

    We’re talking millions of dead Americans if we don’t flatten the curve and mitigate. And the whole point is that it’s not just because of COVID, it’s because the hospitals would become overrun with patients and people with influenza, pneumonia, heart attacks, Gun shots, car accidents, etc wouldn’t receive the proper help. I can’t believe people are OK with this. Simply because they think it would be a bunch old and sick people that they don’t know. That last bit is the key. That they don’t know.
    Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 03-28-2020 at 09:47 AM.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  13. #310
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    The confirmed cases mean absolutely nothing with regard to how many people overall have this.

    Can’t believe this continues to have to be said.
    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Here’s another number for you. Of the 621,354 CONFIRMED cases worldwide 28,429 have passed away. That is a 4.6% mortality rate, which is significantly higher than the numbers that have been thought before of 1% or so.

    People trying to downplay the seriousness of this virus:

    WAKE. UP.

    You are going to get people killed by thinking this is just the flu and going about your business. Seriously.
    How are you using the same numbers you said can't be believed to calculate the mortality rate? That seems a bit contradictory.
    Last edited by Rdirtypirates; 03-28-2020 at 10:05 AM.

  14. #311
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rdirtypirates View Post
    How are you using the same numbers you said can't be believed to calculate the mortality rate? That seems a bit contradictory.
    I was shedding some light on how many people can potentially die from this with the VERY limited data we have and responding to someone who was using said data.

    I pointed out the mortality rate of confirmed cases. I even put confirmed in all caps to say that is what I was referring to.

    We don’t know the exact rate. What we do know is that this is a vicious virus and we can’t just go back to baseball games next month. It’s not happening.
    Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 03-28-2020 at 10:23 AM.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  15. #312
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    so...baseball?

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  17. #313
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    I'm not trying to say the discussion can't be about the virus if it relates to baseball coming back, but there's a dedicated thread to the virus in the Politics forum.

    This was supposed to be about what baseball might look like when it returns.

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    Edd Roush (03-28-2020),westofyou (03-28-2020)

  19. #314
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Correct, but we also don’t know how many people have died of this without being confirmed. Especially in places like China where you can’t trust one data point. There might be a million dead Chinese people because of COVID already and would anyone seriously be surprised?

    Let’s say the mortality rate is 2%.

    We are going to act like that’s no big deal?

    We’re talking millions of dead Americans if we don’t flatten the curve and mitigate. And the whole point is that it’s not just because of COVID, it’s because the hospitals would become overrun with patients and people with influenza, pneumonia, heart attacks, Gun shots, car accidents, etc wouldn’t receive the proper help. I can’t believe people are OK with this. Simply because they think it would be a bunch old and sick people that they don’t know. That last bit is the key. That they don’t know.
    Last I am going to post on this today. Because it is becoming ad nuaseum

    But saying millions of dead Americans is just not factually accurate.

    The US population is about 330 million. If the infection rate is really running around .1% you get

    330,000,000 x .001 = 330,000 infections.

    How do you get millions of deaths out of 100's of thousands of infections?

    The current total infections in the US is 105,000 according to the John Hopkins site this morning. Is this low => YES

    So will we see triple the amount that is now being reported. Easily could be. But there is still a long ways to go from 105K current infections to get to a projection of 3330K. Might we go past the 330K => YES very possible.

    But that still doesn't even get you to millions of infections none the less millions of deaths. And to keep on with the millions of deaths is just continuing a narrative that is just not factually supported.

    No one is saying don't mitigate. No one is saying don't do anything. But that is different than trying to look at the actual numbers as they sit today and see what they realistically tell us.

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    Falls City Beer (03-28-2020),GAC (03-28-2020)

  21. #315
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    Re: When we get baseball again, what will baseball be?

    Baseball is probably going to look like no fans for awhile. At least in some cities.

    Because the outbreak in NY isn't going away anytime soon. And that will be true of some other cities. So if baseball starts up, in order to get enough games in, It will probably be played without fans in some places.


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