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Thread: 2020 Draft

  1. #1
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    2020 Draft

    According to various sites, the MLB and MLBPA have agreed to a much lesser draft of five rounds, with all free agents then open to sign for up to $20,000.

    From MLB TradeRumors (which is from Ken Rosenthal):

    The agreement, however, gives baseball the right to shorten the draft from 40 rounds to five. Bonuses also will be deferred, with picks receiving an initial payment of $100,000 and getting the rest in equal amounts in 2021 and í22. Non-drafted players can receive no more than $20,000, as opposed to $125,000 previously, before counting against a teamís allotment.
    My questions and comments, then:

    The MLBPA screws its possible members once again. At the earliest convenience, they sell out those who should be their brothers-in-arms. A new union should rise from the ashes of the old, wherein all professional ballplayers become one.

    If I'm a minor leaguer, I'm looking to create a union of some sort. This is early 1900s-style coal company evil.

    What would preclude a smart organization from picking up what would be essentially sixth round talent (at least) with multiple $20,000 contracts for players enough to fill out rosters and provide enough coverage to excise anyone who didn't show out in low A, the Pioneer League, Rookie Leagues, and Extended Spring Training? Is there a cap on free agent spending? If not, a smart squad would spend some real money (a relative pittance, in the grand scheme of things) to bring in major talent.

    Speaking of, the entire draft might well become one of talent. True talent-- not the ultra talented player then three senior signees. Actual, honest-to-God this-is-how-I've-got-them-ranked talent. What do you have to lose as a franchise? The player himself can only receive $20,000 as a free agent, and there doesn't seem to be a Round 10 $125,000 bonus in this new contract.

    If Boddy and company are still in operation (or more likely, have feelers in places where people can still work out), this should give the Reds a massive step up on others. (This assumes baseball prospects are still throwing, working out, and hitting.) Anyone with contacts and fingers all over the country should be helped during this draft. So Old School scouts (and their webs of helpers) are a necessity.

    You may well see a mass release of 'tweeners just after the draft. So those young guys in Arizona, Billings, and Dayton will need to show out.

    Were you a team who drafted primarily older, college guys in the previous two drafts, this draft would help a great deal in restocking talent at the lower levels. Sadly, the Reds have focused primarily on HS bats and arms at the top end of the draft. (That said, there will likely be plenty of room to re-stock in Arizona and Billings. And even Dayton, if they are willing to take a win-loss hit. For example, I could see a smart team sign 35 older college-level free agents (at full value price of $20,000) for low A. A squad of high Division I pitchers coming out of the pen throwing mid 90s? That could absolutely happen.

    If I were a pitcher in the lower levels, I'd be worried about this deal. Particularly if I hadn't yet learned how to pitch.

    Having a readily-available free agent talent base will allow teams to essentially ignore the gambles of the International League-- unless they see real talent there. It may, in turn, see a bump among those who are signed. (Although, to be fair, where are they going to go?)

    Your thoughts?


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  3. #2
    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Draft

    My thoughts:

    MLB doesn't need a 40 round draft at all, especially not one with 450 eventual signees (filler) who sign for 10K or less....and it's not the MLBPA's role to look out for those players either (the union is working like all unions do).

    MLB definitely doesn't need a 40 round draft in a year where HS, JC, 4Yr, and MLB may not even play. This actually protects players, because they won't all have to travel and workout in front of clubs - as only elite collegiate JR's are going to be drafted.

    The vast majority of HS seniors should be going to college (and that's probably the best route for 99% of them).

    As for your question about 6th round selections, no one that good is signing for 20K unless it's a college senior (and even then doubtful - as they've just been given an additional year of eligibility).

    And a final note - I predict the draft is canceled all together (notice the stipulation that it must be done by the 20th of July).

  4. #3
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Draft

    I kinda think this draft is going to be really exciting to watch unfold.

    ::ducks::
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    JayBruceFan (03-28-2020)

  6. #4
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    The vast majority of HS seniors should be going to college (and that's probably the best route for 99% of them).
    Were I an MLB GM, I'd be focusing most of my money on the HS ranks.

    Beyond the top pick, I'd go with upside, knowing I had enough free agents to grab high floor regular college guys for $20,000 on the free agent route.

    And if I'm a draft-eligible junior or senior, I'm going to want to go pro. The extra year aside, it's money I make now that I might not make next year.

  7. #5
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Were I an MLB GM, I'd be focusing most of my money on the HS ranks.

    Beyond the top pick, I'd go with upside, knowing I had enough free agents to grab high floor regular college guys for $20,000 on the free agent route.

    And if I'm a draft-eligible junior or senior, I'm going to want to go pro. The extra year aside, it's money I make now that I might not make next year.
    If I'm an undrafted junior or senior, and the NCAA is giving me an extra year of eligibility, there's no chance on God's green Earth I'm signing for $20,000. There's some risk/reward here - but the 1st pick of the 6th round last year had a slot value of $301,600. Now that guy is limited to at most $20,000. I'll wait.

  8. #6
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If I'm an undrafted junior or senior, and the NCAA is giving me an extra year of eligibility, there's no chance on God's green Earth I'm signing for $20,000. There's some risk/reward here - but the 1st pick of the 6th round last year had a slot value of $301,600. Now that guy is limited to at most $20,000. I'll wait.
    What have you gotten with that extra season, though?

    Seniors get quite a bit less because they have no leverage.

    Like $5,000 - $10,000 often.

    Well, after another season of college ball, they'll still have no leverage.

    Better to double that and start your professional career than wait another year, IMO.

    Juniors may have a chance, but again, there's risk. (As you say.)

    HS seniors have a much more difficult choice-- three years in college or begin your professional career for basically nothing.
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 03-27-2020 at 08:49 PM.

  9. #7
    Member texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Draft

    High school players can go to a junior college for one year and then be draft eligible. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/draftday/rules.jsp

    Junior college players, regardless of how many years of school they have completed.
    Maybe these rules are old. I didn't see a date on the article.

  10. #8
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    What have you gotten with that extra season, though?

    Seniors get quite a bit less because they have no leverage.

    Like $5,000 - $10,000 often.

    Well, after another season of college ball, they'll still have no leverage.

    Better to double that and start your professional career than wait another year, IMO.

    Juniors may have a chance, but again, there's risk. (As you say.)

    HS seniors have a much more difficult choice-- three years in college or begin your professional career for basically nothing.
    You've got a chance to play yourself into a top 3-4 round talent, where if you are actually that kind of talent, they will pay you a real signing bonus. The guys you see signing for $15,000 as senior signs - while definitely worth MORE than that, they weren't Top 5 round talents. Most of them weren't Top 10 round talents. They just wound up drafted there because they would take the money.

  11. #9
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You've got a chance to play yourself into a top 3-4 round talent, where if you are actually that kind of talent, they will pay you a real signing bonus. The guys you see signing for $15,000 as senior signs - while definitely worth MORE than that, they weren't Top 5 round talents. Most of them weren't Top 10 round talents. They just wound up drafted there because they would take the money.
    1. We agree on senior signs, then? Most will come out now because another year in the NCAA won't do much for them no matter what. That's (part of) what I said in the original post.

    2. Juniors have two choices: sign for a pittance or go back to school for a year, then sign for a pittance. Or sign for a pittance now. They don't get to be juniors again in 2021. (Unless everyone gets an extra year of eligibility. And I haven't seen that.) That leverage they had disappeared with the season. They could go back to school, but for what result? A chance at being drafted higher? Most will, IMO, likely go ahead and begin their professional careers now rather than wait.
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 03-28-2020 at 08:58 AM.

  12. #10
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    Re: 2020 Draft

    I haven't seen anything that says the extra year of eligibility is for seniors only. Everyone lost this year, not just seniors. But the easiest thing for the NCAA would be to grant just seniors an extra year if they so choose, then give roster/scholarship exceptions for just those athletes. So I would assume that's the route they will go.

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    Re: 2020 Draft

    They have successfully found a new way to screw minor league guys financially and they aren't even signed yet.

  14. #12
    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Draft

    Fangraphs—-


    On Monday, the NCAA’s Division I Council granted an extra year of eligibility to all spring sport athletes whose seasons were lost due to COVID-19 cancellations. Divisions II and III, as well as NAIA, had already taken similar steps, but because of the financial implications of such an action for Division I, it was previously unclear if this measure would be adopted at the highest level.

  15. #13
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Draft

    Does this mean that this year's juniors will be juniors again next season?

  16. #14
    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Does this mean that this year's juniors will be juniors again next season?
    Yes

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