COVID-19 Thread

[Boston Red]

If parents don't want their kids vaccinated, you can't force them. You can keep them out of schools and force them to home school, but you can't force them to be vaccinated.

[Kinsm]

If parents don't want their kids vaccinated, you can't force them. You can keep them out of schools and force them to home school, but you can't force them to be vaccinated.

I'm not convinced the Supreme Court is going to agree with that, we might find out in about 12-24 months.

[Kingspoint]

I'm not convinced the Supreme Court is going to agree with that, we might find out in about 12-24 months.

True. A National Health Emergency bypasses all of that.

[Boston Red]

True. A National Health Emergency bypasses all of that.

Sure hope not

[Kingspoint]

Sure hope not

Home school regulations are still run by each state and each state could mandate that a child gets vaccinated before allowing any certification of home school results.

Personally, my Spouse and I agree that vaccinations and immunizations create their own problems, but this particular problem is a different case. I could see the government using COVID-19 as an excuse to grab hold of vaccination control again for those who want to stop polio (on the rise again after it was believed to be eradicated), rubella, etc.

We are heading towards a slightly different world. It took over 30 years to convince Americans to get polio vaccines. Those who lived through the scare understood the seriousness of it. Doubt if anyone on this board doesn't have an uncle or aunt who had polio as a kid. Many never recovered. But, it was mandatory vaccinations that wiped it out,...until now, as it's back.

[westofyou]

Sure hope not

Glad I have a smallpox scar in my shoulder


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jup]

Actually, it's that more data is being added to the model making the model more accurate and representative to what is happening on the ground. That's how modeling works.

Yes that is how modeling works. But it isn't simply putting more data in. It is also reevaluating the coefficients and powers you raise that data or adding new factors that were not in the model before so that the model will mimic real life better.

So maybe we are saying the same thing. But their is a distinction between running new data (like lower hospitalizations actually happening) through the existing model to render a new outcome using the same algorithms, and changing the algorithms the model is based on that would give you a different outcome even using the old data sets. And it is the algorithms themselves that were off and causing the projections to miss, and miss by a lot.

So if we are saying the same thing - semantics - then I agree, that is the way modeling is done.

[kaldaniels]

Yes that is how modeling works. But it isn't simply putting more data in. It is also reevaluating the coefficients and powers you raise that data or adding new factors that were not in the model before so that the model will mimic real life better.

So maybe we are saying the same thing. But their is a distinction between running new data (like lower hospitalizations actually happening) through the existing model to render a new outcome using the same algorithms, and changing the algorithms the model is based on that would give you a different outcome even using the old data sets. And it is the algorithms themselves that were off and causing the projections to miss, and miss by a lot.

So if we are saying the same thing - semantics - then I agree, that is the way modeling is done.

To piggyback off this - it’s why there is a vast vast difference between rates that say double every 2-3 days and rates that double every say, 7 days. It’s why I challenged a post 10 days ago that pretty much said by today we’d be looking at 4000 deaths per day in the US. I’m just someone looking for good news, not trying to hate on any numbers given. My current worry is that the slope of the curve going down isn’t going to be as nice and pretty as all these graphs show.

[jup]

To piggyback off this - it’s why there is a vast vast difference between rates that say double every 2-3 days and rates that double every say, 7 days. It’s why I challenged a post 10 days ago that pretty much said by today we’d be looking at 4000 deaths per day in the US. I’m just someone looking for good news, not trying to hate on any numbers given. My current worry is that the slope of the curve going down isn’t going to be as nice and pretty as all these graphs show.

I suspect you are saying - more a bumpy ride - and I suspect you are absolutely right.

The question really becomes how the turbulence is going to get handled, because if the answer is - just close up shop again - at least on a national level, that ain't going to cut it

[North]

Coronavirus in sewage foreshadowed outbreak in Dutch city
March 31 2020

Scientists say they found the virus, that causes COVID-19, in a Dutch city's waste water before the first confirmed case in the city. They hope that sewage surveillance may be an early indicator of COVID-19's presence.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-in...ity/a-52972980


As the US struggles with lack of coronavirus testing, researchers look to our sewage for clues

Coronavirus may be tracked by where it shows up in wastewater
April 6, 2020

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/us-str...s_card_related

[Stray]

We have a stay at home order going into effect in South Carolina at 5pm tomorrow. Not a whole lot changes from before, the same "non-essential" businesses are closed, and the others remain open. It just gives an enforcement to the measures already in place, best I can tell.

Daily cases seem to have leveled off and even dropped over the last few days which makes me wonder why now of all times, but idk.

My county has 8 cases, 5 are 2 weeks old. Hate it for friends who are really struggling. Hope they get the life raft they need. I feel lucky to still work.

[RedTeamGo!]

Home school regulations are still run by each state and each state could mandate that a child gets vaccinated before allowing any certification of home school results.

Personally, my Spouse and I agree that vaccinations and immunizations create their own problems, but this particular problem is a different case. I could see the government using COVID-19 as an excuse to grab hold of vaccination control again for those who want to stop polio (on the rise again after it was believed to be eradicated), rubella, etc.

We are heading towards a slightly different world. It took over 30 years to convince Americans to get polio vaccines. Those who lived through the scare understood the seriousness of it. Doubt if anyone on this board doesn't have an uncle or aunt who had polio as a kid. Many never recovered. But, it was mandatory vaccinations that wiped it out,...until now, as it's back.

What problems do vaccinations create?

[jup]

Coronavirus in sewage foreshadowed outbreak in Dutch city
March 31 2020

Scientists say they found the virus, that causes COVID-19, in a Dutch city's waste water before the first confirmed case in the city. They hope that sewage surveillance may be an early indicator of COVID-19's presence.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-in...ity/a-52972980


As the US struggles with lack of coronavirus testing, researchers look to our sewage for clues

Coronavirus may be tracked by where it shows up in wastewater
April 6, 2020

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/us-str...s_card_related

Very interesting, thanks for the links

[BuckeyeRed27]

I suspect you are saying - more a bumpy ride - and I suspect you are absolutely right.

The question really becomes how the turbulence is going to get handled, because if the answer is - just close up shop again - at least on a national level, that ain't going to cut it

That is why it's baffling we don't have more testing. We just need more data to be able to figure out what to do. Rapid tests are going to be necessary for a lot of us to go back to work. There has been some talk of it, but antibody blood test sampling also needs to start very very soon if we are going to move forward here. There isn't going to be a magic day where everything goes back to normal. It's going to be a process and I don't see any or at least many steps being taken towards a realistic plan to make that happen.

[RichRed]

Thanks everybody. My father passed this afternoon. I talked to his wife this afternoon, and she said he'd been complaining that it was taking so long.

So sorry, Marc. Thinking of you and your family.