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Thread: COVID-19 Thread

  1. #151
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

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    This Ohio model they are using isn't even close.

    It projects under "strict mitigation" the number of cases per day would already be at the 1000 level. And yet the same website says the total cases in Ohio to date is only 3739, with the daily new cases running somewhere in the range of 180 since Mar 21st. Something just doesn't jibe.


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  3. #152
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
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    This Ohio model they are using isn't even close.

    It projects under "strict mitigation" the number of cases per day would already be at the 1000 level. And yet the same website says the total cases in Ohio to date is only 3739, with the daily new cases running somewhere in the range of 180 since Mar 21st. Something just doesn't jibe.
    It doesn't jibe because the chart is based on actual infections, not positive tests.

  4. #153
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It doesn't jibe because the chart is based on actual infections, not positive tests.
    Actual infections not positive tests?

    I am not sure how you get an actual infection without a positive test, at least as far as statistics go. Unless you are saying doctors are reporting corona virus cases, without ever testing. So they just use a clinically determined diagnosis based on symptoms to report it as a case without a test as a confirmation.

    Approaching it a little differently - there are hospitalization numbers in Ohio of 1066. NY where there has been the most testing done, and 60% of the tests are coming back negative already (so they are well beyond the backlog of just testing the obvious cases), the hospitalization rate to positive tests is 9.3%. so that would give Ohio 1066/.093 => 10,817 cases. But yet on Mar. 22nd they said that there were 100K cases already as their reasoning for shutting down the state. But those 100K cases would have had to be showing up in the hospitals already. And that looks more like 9300 hospitalized by now. That would say that whatever model they are using could be off by almost a factor of 10.

  5. #154
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    I can only hope that this is a stepping stone that gets the World to move forward and address many of the other pressing needs that will end up causing a lot more calamity and a lot more deaths and economic destruction than this leak in the dike. It's a great opportunity to learn how to overcome many of the barriers that have prevented the World from moving beyond the speed of a snail on these other issues. I doubt very much if we can, though, as history proves over and over again that humans are a finger-in-the-dike, that's-not-my-problem species.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  6. #155
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    I can only hope that this is a stepping stone that gets the World to move forward and address many of the other pressing needs that will end up causing a lot more calamity and a lot more deaths and economic destruction than this leak in the dike. It's a great opportunity to learn how to overcome many of the barriers that have prevented the World from moving beyond the speed of a snail on these other issues. I doubt very much if we can, though, as history proves over and over again that humans are a finger-in-the-dike, that's-not-my-problem species.
    Are you going to address your claim of 5000 health care workers dying in Italy? Doug liked the post - maybe he knows...I don’t know I’m just looking for something. You are posting in here frequently but conveniently omitting any data to back that claim up.

  7. #156
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Actual infections not positive tests?

    I am not sure how you get an actual infection without a positive test, at least as far as statistics go. Unless you are saying doctors are reporting corona virus cases, without ever testing. So they just use a clinically determined diagnosis based on symptoms to report it as a case without a test as a confirmation.

    Approaching it a little differently - there are hospitalization numbers in Ohio of 1066. NY where there has been the most testing done, and 60% of the tests are coming back negative already (so they are well beyond the backlog of just testing the obvious cases), the hospitalization rate to positive tests is 9.3%. so that would give Ohio 1066/.093 => 10,817 cases. But yet on Mar. 22nd they said that there were 100K cases already as their reasoning for shutting down the state. But those 100K cases would have had to be showing up in the hospitals already. And that looks more like 9300 hospitalized by now. That would say that whatever model they are using could be off by almost a factor of 10.
    Does it matter? They were aggressive and acted quickly and Ohio is in one of the better positions in the US, so seems like the plan is working.

    We don’t have enough testing, nor does it come in fast enough to use it as a good metric or for us to start to normalize things. And we still don’t have a great idea of asymptotic people or mild cases to do any back of the envelope math.

  8. #157
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    Does it matter? They were aggressive and acted quickly and Ohio is in one of the better positions in the US, so seems like the plan is working.

    We don’t have enough testing, nor does it come in fast enough to use it as a good metric or for us to start to normalize things. And we still don’t have a great idea of asymptotic people or mild cases to do any back of the envelope math.
    I did not say I was not happy that the case load seems to be much lower than the projections would have seemed to tell us, but that is different then questioning the validity of the model that had them tell us they were using to make decisions based on 100k infected people already in the state of Ohio on Mar. 22nd.

    It is perfectly fine with me that it looks like the actual is coming in way under the projected. But going forward, making decisions based on a model that is possibly off by a factor of 10 doesn't make sense. But you wouldn't know that unless you looked at the model. And that is all I am saying. The model seems off. Things don't jibe with what is physically happening.

  9. #158
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    I did not say I was not happy that the case load seems to be much lower than the projections would have seemed to tell us, but that is different then questioning the validity of the model that had them tell us they were using to make decisions based on 100k infected people already in the state of Ohio on Mar. 22nd.

    It is perfectly fine with me that it looks like the actual is coming in way under the projected. But going forward, making decisions based on a model that is possibly off by a factor of 10 doesn't make sense. But you wouldn't know that unless you looked at the model. And that is all I am saying. The model seems off. Things don't jibe with what is physically happening.
    I don’t think we know enough to be able to say that. You’re using New York data, but that’s just one data point, not a model.

  10. #159
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    We still have no idea how many Ohioans have coronavirus, they have tested very few people. Furthermore, the CDC is estimating that perhaps 1 in 4 carrying the virus will never show symptoms and would have no reason to be tested.

  11. #160
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Actual infections not positive tests?

    I am not sure how you get an actual infection without a positive test, at least as far as statistics go. Unless you are saying doctors are reporting corona virus cases, without ever testing. So they just use a clinically determined diagnosis based on symptoms to report it as a case without a test as a confirmation.

    Approaching it a little differently - there are hospitalization numbers in Ohio of 1066. NY where there has been the most testing done, and 60% of the tests are coming back negative already (so they are well beyond the backlog of just testing the obvious cases), the hospitalization rate to positive tests is 9.3%. so that would give Ohio 1066/.093 => 10,817 cases. But yet on Mar. 22nd they said that there were 100K cases already as their reasoning for shutting down the state. But those 100K cases would have had to be showing up in the hospitals already. And that looks more like 9300 hospitalized by now. That would say that whatever model they are using could be off by almost a factor of 10.
    What I'm saying is you are quoting positive tests as some sort of "I don't understand how the chart doesn't match up" situation, as if we are testing everyone who has symptoms rather than just those who have symptoms bad enough to be hospitalized, work in the medical field, or have symptoms and are "at risk" for one reason or another.

    There are also people who are asymptomatic who never feel they have anything, but they have it. They aren't being tested, never will be tested. And while she didn't state numbers on that today, Dr. Acton noted that there were a lot of people that fall into that camp.

    Basically - the math you're trying to do based on the numbers doesn't work. They are working with better data than you. They are also working with incomplete data. They are also working with some guesswork built into the model.

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  13. #161
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    You don't get it? That's the problem. Too many people don't get it and/or don't care.
    What exactly don't I get?

    You posted 5,000 medical workers in Italy have died from the virus. Are you saying 1/3rd of the deaths in Italy were medical workers? Did you mean to say 500 (even that seems high to me)?

  14. #162
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    What I'm saying is you are quoting positive tests as some sort of "I don't understand how the chart doesn't match up" situation, as if we are testing everyone who has symptoms rather than just those who have symptoms bad enough to be hospitalized, work in the medical field, or have symptoms and are "at risk" for one reason or another.

    There are also people who are asymptomatic who never feel they have anything, but they have it. They aren't being tested, never will be tested. And while she didn't state numbers on that today, Dr. Acton noted that there were a lot of people that fall into that camp.

    Basically - the math you're trying to do based on the numbers doesn't work. They are working with better data than you. They are also working with incomplete data. They are also working with some guesswork built into the model.
    No doubt we are all working with incomplete data.

    And the whole positive test thing is why I said, lets just look at it from a hospitalization rate. Because no tests are involved there. They go to the hospital or not. And the reason you use NY numbers on hospitalization, is because there is no more complete data set then NY at the present time. Come at it either way, they both say the model is of by a sizable factor.

  15. #163
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    What exactly don't I get?

    You posted 5,000 medical workers in Italy have died from the virus. Are you saying 1/3rd of the deaths in Italy were medical workers? Did you mean to say 500 (even that seems high to me)?
    Not died...contracted Covid-19. The fear that each will pass on ths virus to others (masks, etc., don't keep you from getting the disease, but from spreading it), family, friends, co-workers, etc. scares the hell out of them. And, since one can easily be a carrier without symptoms, that's a worry that's going to stay with them for months after the quarantine is lifted. That's why nobody, absolutely nobody, should be going anywhere where there are other people unless absolutely necessary. Doing so is nothing but a self-centered act. My Spouse began her own isolation last night across the street at a neighbor's BnB, while I and her have been quarantined from each other since March 8th as I have to keep from passing anything on to my Mom, whom I'm caring for 24×7, and that she doesn't pass anything onto her parents who are both at our house. She is separating herself from our daughter. My Spouse is a pharmacist on the frontline at ground zero for Multnomah County. Ohio shamed "Hobby Lobby" into closing after falsely claiming to be an essential business. I know Lexington County showed no cases, while the Cincinnati area is doing well now, but it's only a matter of time, not if, when they, too will get hit hard. There are just too many people making unnecessary trips that put them within 20 feet of others indoors and 10 feet outdoors. The 6-foot rule is from studies in the 30's. The point is to not go anywhere that other people exist until this thing can flatten out for an extended period of time. It's crazy how many people continue to violate these common sense suggestions. They are suggestions because we are a free society. It's simply reckless, irresponsible and selfish. Any kind of tolerance on anyone's part is what is wrong with this country. People need to get their acts together and be responsible and stop worrying about themselves and consider first the welfare of others.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 04-04-2020 at 08:37 PM.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  16. #164
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Oregon is sending 140 ventilators to New York.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  17. #165
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    CNBC---

    World Health Organization officials cautioned Friday that more young people are becoming critically ill and dying from the coronavirus that’s now spread to almost every country across the world.

    “We are seeing more and more younger individuals who are experiencing severe disease,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the organization’s Geneva headquarters. “We’ve seen some data from a number of countries across Europe where people of younger age have died. Some of those individuals have had underlying conditions, but some have not.”

    Much remains unknown about the virus, including why the disease develops into a severe illness in some individuals but not others, Van Kerhove said. She added that as the virus spreads to more countries and more clinical data is collected, researchers are learning about the behavior of the virus.

    It is a mistake to believe that the virus only severely impacts older people and those with underlying conditions, added Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s emergencies program.

    Ryan reiterated how important it is for young people to take measures to prevent the spread of the virus, not only to protect themselves, but also to contain the spread and protect others who are more vulnerable.


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