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Thread: COVID-19 Thread

  1. #1
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    COVID-19 Thread

    One suggestion would be if someone wants to start a catch all COVID-19 thread in the Non-Baseball Chatter forum, that could be used as a place to touch upon general discussion of the virus including light political implications. More in-depth political discussion would still reserved for the politics sub-forum. This thread could then be used for its intended purpose to discuss the virus purely as it relates to baseball.
    Here we go. Use the other thread for baseball-related stuff.


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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Here we go. Use the other thread for baseball-related stuff.
    Thank you sir, you beat me to it.

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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    So, Multnomah County is where my spouse is a pharmacist. One of the managers from one of the seven clinics put up shields two weeks ago so that the virus wouldn't spread between the sick and the health workers. They were made to take it down because they were told not to give a look of panic to the public. As of today, the pharmacy department is not allowed to wear masks or gloves, but no reason was given. Could be because there isn't enough for everyone so they don't get any at all, even if they brought in their own. Just saying that there still exists a lack of common sense everywhere.

    From Day 1, shields should have been put up at the counters.

    Fortunately, she was off on vacation all of last week, but she has been waking up in the middle of the night almost every night. She's very stressed over this, as they have had her working at the most vulnerable clinic every day, ground zero of the homeless in Portland. Both of her parents live with her and she's worried about bringing the virus home to them, while her Dad is stubborn and had been going to his Ba'hai temple every day where he ran AA meetings and other things making it likely for him to bring it home and spread it around. I've quarantined myself from her since March 8th, seeing her only March 14th (day after our Anniversary) and March 24th (to bring my Sister her birthday present). I'm quarantined because I'm taking care of my Mom 24×7 at my Sister's house in the basement. My Mom was first diagnosed with Alzheimer's 12 years ago and I have been taking care of her for that long, first about 16 hours per week, eventually retiring from my job and taking care of her about Monday morning to Friday evening.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 03-29-2020 at 02:15 AM.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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    First Time Caller SunDeck's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Sheesh, that's crazy. Lowe's here had sneeze shields up a week ago and I'm not seeing any hollywood blockbuster panic there, nobody running up and down the aisles, pushing people out of the way. There is no excuse for putting employees at risk that way.
    Next Reds manager, second shooter. --Confirmed on Redszone.

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    Member Redsfaithful's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    They have shields up at Costco here.
    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

  7. #6
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Kinsm -

    You had a pretty dire post on Friday before that day's numbers were finalized. You said in a couple days the US daily death toll would hit 1000. A few days after that it would be 2000. And a few days after that it would be 4000.

    When exactly do you see the US hitting each of those numbers - you caused me to take a look and things and I can't help but feel like you got out ahead of yourself. Standard disclaimer - this is not the flu and a huge and serious issue, not trying to take away from that.

  8. #7
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    This is the quote Dr Fauci made today...

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/polit...ntv/index.html

    "I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, you know, I would say between 100 and 200,000 (deaths). But I don't want to be held to that," he said, adding that the US is going to have "millions of cases."
    I'll be the first to say he could be low or high with his guess of deaths, but it sure doesn't seem to be any sort of a guarantee.

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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Kinsm -

    You had a pretty dire post on Friday before that day's numbers were finalized. You said in a couple days the US daily death toll would hit 1000. A few days after that it would be 2000. And a few days after that it would be 4000.

    When exactly do you see the US hitting each of those numbers - you caused me to take a look and things and I can't help but feel like you got out ahead of yourself. Standard disclaimer - this is not the flu and a huge and serious issue, not trying to take away from that.
    Since you put it over here also, I will follow suit.

    He also posted that there will be Millions of deaths. He will hide behind that being an old projection, but that just isn't the way he posts it.

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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Kinsm -

    You had a pretty dire post on Friday before that day's numbers were finalized. You said in a couple days the US daily death toll would hit 1000. A few days after that it would be 2000. And a few days after that it would be 4000.

    When exactly do you see the US hitting each of those numbers - you caused me to take a look and things and I can't help but feel like you got out ahead of yourself. Standard disclaimer - this is not the flu and a huge and serious issue, not trying to take away from that.
    I don't want to speak for Kinsm but I posted in the Politics area that if we see our daily death counts increase by 15% a day from the prior day it would look like this;

    Date Daily Deaths
    3/28/2020 525 (Yesterday)
    3/29/2020 603.75
    3/30/2020 694.3125
    3/31/2020 798.459375
    4/1/2020 918.2282813
    4/2/2020 1055.962523
    4/3/2020 1214.356902
    4/4/2020 1396.510437

    15% might seem like a lot but as of yesterday the prior 7 days average daily increase in new deaths reported was 47%. So I used that as a more conservative number since we're so early in this whole thing. This is also just confirmed Covid 19 cases, there are likely people dying of the disease that were not tested due to the lack of testing we've done per capita but hopefully we're getting better on that front.

    Good news is today is looking very favorable with only 255 deaths being reported as of ~8:30. Hopefully decreases in %s become the new trend very quickly!

    This is where I am looking at all of the numbers;

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Last edited by schmidty622; 03-29-2020 at 08:50 PM.

  11. #10
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    I concur that today is looking “good” - one day does not make a trend but it does dent the growth rate.

    And I also use Worldometer’s data (the numbers seem a bit suspect at times) for consistency sake.

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    schmidty622 (03-29-2020)

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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I concur that today is looking “good” - one day does not make a trend but it does dent the growth rate.

    And I also use Worldometer’s data (the numbers seem a bit suspect at times) for consistency sake.
    I agree but it's the easiest UI that I've found.

    This was also posted in the Politics area but I wanted to post it here for visability although it's a few weeks old;



    Regardless of how fast our actual numbers move it's an interesting look into what we might be seeing.

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    Kinsm (03-29-2020)

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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    So, where do we as a nation stand?

    Today was Day #14 of the Executive Branch's 15-day social-distancing plan:

    ***I'm looking for a possible update to today's (DAY 14) figures, seems a little light on tests for the day....only 95K (which is a good 20K less than each of the past few days). But for now these are the posted figures.

    -----------------------------------------

    COVID Tracking Project ---> Official Figures (tallied from each state's health department)

    Day# - Date 2020 DofW - Positive - Negative - Pos + Neg - Pending - Hospitalized - Deaths - Total Tests

    Day 14 - 29 Mar 2020 Sun - 139,061 - 692,290 - 831,351 - 65,549 - 19,730 - 2,428 - 896,900
    Day 13 - 28 Mar 2020 Sat - 118,234 - 617,470 - 735,704 - 65,712 - 16,729 - 1,965 - 801,416
    Day 12 - 27 Mar 2020 Fri - 99,447 - 527,220 - 626,667 - 60,094 - 12,036 - 1,530 - 686,761
    Day 11 - 26 Mar 2020 Thu - 80,735 - 438,603 - 519,338 - 60,251 - 10,131 - 1,163 - 579,589
    Day 10 - 25 Mar 2020 Wed - 63,675 - 355,135 - 418,810 - 14,735 - 6,136 - 887 - 433,545
    Day 9 - 24 Mar 2020 Tue - 51,970 - 292,758 - 344,728 - 14,433 - 4,468 - 675 - 359,161
    Day 8 - 23 Mar 2020 Mon - 42,164 - 237,321 - 279,485 - 14,571 - 3,325 - 471 - 294,056
    Day 7 - 22 Mar 2020 Sun - 31,888 - 193,463 - 225,351 - 2,842 - 2,554 - 398 - 228,193
    Day 6 - 21 Mar 2020 Sat - 23,203 - 155,909 - 179,112 - 3,477 - 1,964 - 272 - 182,589
    Day 5 - 20 Mar 2020 Fri - 17,038 - 118,147 - 135,185 - 3,336 - unk - 219 - 138,521
    Day 4 - 19 Mar 2020 Thu - 11,723 - 89,119 - 100,842 - 3,025 - unk - 160 - 103,867
    Day 3 - 18 Mar 2020 Wed - 7,731 - 66,225 - 73,956 - 2,538 - unk - 112 - 76,495
    Day 2 - 17 Mar 2020 Tue - 5,723 - 47,604 - 53,327 - 1,687 - unk - 90 - 54,957
    Day 1 - 16 Mar 2020 Mon - 4,019 - 36,104 - 40,123 - 1,691 - unk - 71 - 41,714

    ~17% of those tested thus far are testing positive.
    ~16% of those who are reporting positive are serious enough (at the moment) to enter a hospital or a morgue.

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    schmidty622 (03-29-2020)

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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    So, where do we as a nation stand?

    Today was Day #14 of the Executive Branch's 15-day social-distancing plan:

    ***I'm looking for a possible update to today's (DAY 14) figures, seems a little light on tests for the day....only 95K (which is a good 20K less than each of the past few days). But for now these are the posted figures.

    -----------------------------------------
    It's weird to click like on these posts because people's lives are being so terribly impacted. I think it's critical that we keep up visibility as to what is actually happening with the spread, so my likes are for that and not the actual situation itself. =-/

  18. #14
    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Kinsm -

    You had a pretty dire post on Friday before that day's numbers were finalized. You said in a couple days the US daily death toll would hit 1000. A few days after that it would be 2000. And a few days after that it would be 4000.

    When exactly do you see the US hitting each of those numbers - you caused me to take a look and things and I can't help but feel like you got out ahead of yourself. Standard disclaimer - this is not the flu and a huge and serious issue, not trying to take away from that.
    Too answer your question, I don't know to be honest (I'm not an epidemiologist). The real answer, is it'll be once hospital facilities, materials, and staff become overloaded - which is what we are seeing in NYC right now. And what we expect to see nationwide. We should count ourselves lucky, that not every city is at NYC figures at the same time.

    If you look at the figures I just posted you'll see that both hospitalizations and deaths doubled over the past three days from 10K to 20K and ~1,200 to ~2,400. I hope that it doesn't continue to do that, but have zero reason to believe it won't. Once that hospitalization figure reaches an apex we should expect the death toll to climb and climb quickly.

    Today's numbers in particular are promising, they show that our hospital staffs and equipment haven't been exhausted yet. We should all rejoice in that.

    I'm very concerned about testing capabilities, DeWine (OH Governor) for example stated today that only 24K Ohioans have been able to get a test thus far and they are being limited to only those in the worst condition. And I'm very concerned about supplies, again today DeWine had a special press conference pleading for the FED to act on that.

  19. #15
    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by schmidty622 View Post
    It's weird to click like on these posts because people's lives are being so terribly impacted. I think it's critical that we keep up visibility as to what is actually happening with the spread, so my likes are for that and not the actual situation itself. =-/
    Understood and agreed.


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