And if they develop it they won't market it, because it's a non-profit systemOriginally Posted by dougdirt
And if they develop it they won't market it, because it's a non-profit system
RFS62 (03-31-2020)
Dr Birx is not giving a worst case scenario. She's giving a best case scenario of 200K dead
https://www.today.com/video/dr-debor...ly-81368133527
Ohio's website is projecting that they'll report 533 new cases tomorrow; 904 on April 2nd and 1257 on April 6, assuming we practice proper social distancing. We'll see
nm -- forgot this isn't in the P&R forum.
Last edited by WrongVerb; 03-31-2020 at 06:06 PM.
Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)
Testing peaked here on 3/25. A whole week where we haven’t seen an increase in tests.
schmidty622 (03-31-2020)
Virus-scanning tool could detect previous COVID-19 infections and inform vaccine development
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...nfections.html
Not so sure this gives complete context.
If you listened closely today at the briefing, she said those numbers are based on the best data they have at the moment and it is heavily dominated by NY, Italy etc. But that the model is adjusted as new data comes in. And that at the present time, many metro areas would have to look like NY for that models predictions to be accurate.
So modeled on best data they have, updated as new data comes in, but that there is other data out there like WA and CA that got an early jump on social distancing that is not following the NY model at all. If more of the country looks like CA and WA, the outcome could be much different. But for the moment, they are using the best they have and that is what the model says.
Bottom line - could be worse if there are a whole country full of NY's to come. Could be better if there are more CA's and WA's to come.
They will be judged on the modeling that they choose to give us. If more data later shows this model to inaccurate then that doesn't change the idea that they were inaccurate. It only tells us why. We shall see.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ovid-19-model/
Yeah that’s not at all how modeling works.
Interesting 538 article.
And when it comes to predicting outcomes, that group at 538 has to be up there towards the top
This whole pandemic is uncharted territory. There are so many confounders...things that you didn't think to control for or perhaps more importantly can't control for. Things like 20 years or so ago with a toothpaste brand named Rembrant, where somebody correlated it with a higher rate of lung cancer, but it was actually used by a higher percentage of cigarette smokers to scrub tobacco stains.
I don't think this can be well-modeled. My two cents.
Last edited by North; 04-01-2020 at 08:25 AM.
Sea Ray (04-01-2020)
If they can't (our gov't) put together a good model then they shouldn't even release it
That's not how modeling works.
The model they’ve been using has been incredibly accurate so far.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Larkin Fan (04-01-2020),RFS62 (04-02-2020)
DeWine: Ohio testing is still being rationed to those in the worst condition.
Emphasizes necessity of filling out census forms online, mail, or by phone.
Signed executive order to halt business foreclosures for 90 days if needed.
Health Director signs order tequiring hospitals to submit their test to the state instead of private labs so the results will be returned quicker
Last edited by North; 04-01-2020 at 03:10 PM.
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