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Thread: COVID-19 Thread

  1. #46
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    To quote paintmered: “all models are wrong, but some are useful”
    She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning

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    Larkin Fan (04-01-2020)


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  4. #47
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    To quote paintmered: “all models are wrong, but some are useful”

    "All pigs are equal, but...."

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    Chip R (04-01-2020)

  6. #48
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    If they can't (our gov't) put together a good model then they shouldn't even release it
    WHAT !!!!

    No one knows if they have a good model, because the final chapter isn't written. Models project outcomes, no one knows how good they were until the ink is dry in the history books.

    Public confidence and transparency for action are based on the model, so you have to release the information you are working from. And both national and state officials have been very good at explaining the models are estimates that get refined each step of the way when the actual data comes in.

    Modeling in this case is a process that is evolving daily, and unless you have the ultimate crystal ball that can tell us all the ultimate outcome then....

    I personally find a lot of value in being able to know what model they are using and how it is being put together.

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  8. #49
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by North View Post
    Emphasizes necessity of filling out census forms online, mail, or by phone.

    Signed executive order to halt business foreclosures for 90 days if needed.

    Health Director signs order tequiring hospitals to submit their test to the state instead of private labs so the results will be returned quicker
    Hope the state labs don't get overwhelmed with tests as testing keeps ramping up. Sounds like this would put a bottle neck in the process unless the tests are the new quick type where the results are immediate without having to go through a lab.

  9. #50
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Hope the state labs don't get overwhelmed with tests as testing keeps ramping up. Sounds like this would put a bottle neck in the process unless the tests are the new quick type where the results are immediate without having to go through a lab.
    Yes - he spoke of same day turnaround in some cases, or one day
    as opposed to days at private labs. He said hospitals who do not have testing facilities will take their test samples to hospitals that do, or to state facilities. So it becomes a logistics situation, not a testing situation.

    Also, the Ohio Health Dept. is going to 3 shifts.

  10. #51
    Member Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    So, where do we as a nation stand?

    As of 4 pm EST - 4/3

    The Executive Branch initially had a 15-day social distancing plan, that's been extended an additional 30 days.

    -----------------------------------------

    COVID Tracking Project ---> Official Figures (tallied from each state's health department)

    Day# - Date 2020 DofW - Positive - Negative - Pos + Neg - Pending - Hospitalized - Deaths - Total Tests

    Day 19 - 3 Apr 2020 Fri - 271,915 - 1,135,356 - 1,407,271 - 61,980 - 35,991 - 6,962 - 1,469,251
    Day 18 - 2 Apr 2020 Thu - 239,009 - 1,028,649 - 1,267,658 - 62,101 - 32,649 - 5,784 - 1,329,759
    Day 17 - 1 Apr 2020 Wed - 210,770 - 939,190 - 1,149,960 - 59,687 - 31,142 - 4,700 - 1,209,647
    Day 16 - 31 Mar 2020 Tue - 184,770 - 864,201 - 1,048,971 - 59,529 - 26,660 - 3,746 - 1,108,500
    Day 15 - 30 Mar 2020 Mon - 160,530 - 784,324 - 944,854 - 65,382 - 22,303 - 2,939 - 1,010,236
    Day 14 - 29 Mar 2020 Sun - 139,061 - 692,290 - 831,351 - 65,549 - 19,730 - 2,428 - 896,900
    Day 13 - 28 Mar 2020 Sat - 118,234 - 617,470 - 735,704 - 65,712 - 16,729 - 1,965 - 801,416
    Day 12 - 27 Mar 2020 Fri - 99,447 - 527,220 - 626,667 - 60,094 - 12,036 - 1,530 - 686,761
    Day 11 - 26 Mar 2020 Thu - 80,735 - 438,603 - 519,338 - 60,251 - 10,131 - 1,163 - 579,589
    Day 10 - 25 Mar 2020 Wed - 63,675 - 355,135 - 418,810 - 14,735 - 6,136 - 887 - 433,545
    Day 9 - 24 Mar 2020 Tue - 51,970 - 292,758 - 344,728 - 14,433 - 4,468 - 675 - 359,161
    Day 8 - 23 Mar 2020 Mon - 42,164 - 237,321 - 279,485 - 14,571 - 3,325 - 471 - 294,056
    Day 7 - 22 Mar 2020 Sun - 31,888 - 193,463 - 225,351 - 2,842 - 2,554 - 398 - 228,193
    Day 6 - 21 Mar 2020 Sat - 23,203 - 155,909 - 179,112 - 3,477 - 1,964 - 272 - 182,589
    Day 5 - 20 Mar 2020 Fri - 17,038 - 118,147 - 135,185 - 3,336 - unk - 219 - 138,521
    Day 4 - 19 Mar 2020 Thu - 11,723 - 89,119 - 100,842 - 3,025 - unk - 160 - 103,867
    Day 3 - 18 Mar 2020 Wed - 7,731 - 66,225 - 73,956 - 2,538 - unk - 112 - 76,495
    Day 2 - 17 Mar 2020 Tue - 5,723 - 47,604 - 53,327 - 1,687 - unk - 90 - 54,957
    Day 1 - 16 Mar 2020 Mon - 4,019 - 36,104 - 40,123 - 1,691 - unk - 71 - 41,714
    ~19% of those tested thus far are testing positive.
    ~16% of those who are reporting positive are serious enough (at the moment) to enter a hospital or a morgue.
    Last edited by Kinsm; 04-03-2020 at 07:34 PM.

  11. #52
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    If I get this and die I just hope I last long enough to get .99 gas. I think the lowest i've ever gotten was like 1.27 when I first started driving. Just once in my life I would like gas under a dollar.

  12. #53
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by North View Post
    Yes - he spoke of same day turnaround in some cases, or one day
    as opposed to days at private labs. He said hospitals who do not have testing facilities will take their test samples to hospitals that do, or to state facilities. So it becomes a logistics situation, not a testing situation.

    Also, the Ohio Health Dept. is going to 3 shifts.
    So, I really wonder what is going to happen once they go to POS testing. Because it would seem that getting the data from that type of testing would be more difficult.

    It is clearly where we need to get, but labs have certain protocols that they use for reporting this stuff. Not sure how these rapid tests are going to do that. And one of the great things about the rapid tests will be the ability to further expand the data set that epidemiologists have to work from. But if it isn't recorded, the benefit of wide scale testing will be lost.

  13. #54
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    If I get this and die I just hope I last long enough to get .99 gas. I think the lowest i've ever gotten was like 1.27 when I first started driving. Just once in my life I would like gas under a dollar.
    I used to fill my ‘62 Corvair with $.25/gal gas circa 1972.
    She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning

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  15. #55
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    If I get this and die I just hope I last long enough to get .99 gas. I think the lowest i've ever gotten was like 1.27 when I first started driving. Just once in my life I would like gas under a dollar.
    It already is in some places, check gasbuddy, get in your car and go for a drive.

    .95 $ outside Richmond VA today.

  16. #56
    Member Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    I can remember paying 1.05 in Northern Cincinnati in 1998, based on inflation that might be the cheapest it's ever been.

  17. #57
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    So, I really wonder what is going to happen once they go to POS testing. Because it would seem that getting the data from that type of testing would be more difficult.

    It is clearly where we need to get, but labs have certain protocols that they use for reporting this stuff. Not sure how these rapid tests are going to do that. And one of the great things about the rapid tests will be the ability to further expand the data set that epidemiologists have to work from. But if it isn't recorded, the benefit of wide scale testing will be lost.
    You don't seem to like what they are doing. You really shoud watch the press conferences...I don't have a photographic memory.

  18. #58
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    So I have been tracking your numbers since you have been posting them Kinsm. The tests numbers in particular. And for several days now the testing numbers have leveled off at about 100,000. But one would think that the amount of testing done, is increasing daily. I wonder if it has truly flat lined or if all the testing results just aren't getting reported.

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    Last edited by jup; 04-01-2020 at 08:08 PM.

  19. #59
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    We have a testing shortage right now, not enough swabs. Ohio in particular is having that problem.

  20. #60
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    Re: COVID-19 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    I used to fill my ‘62 Corvair with $.25/gal gas circa 1972.
    I still have a pair of Buffalo Bills glasses from the gas wars.


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