To quote paintmered: “all models are wrong, but some are useful”
To quote paintmered: “all models are wrong, but some are useful”
She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning
Larkin Fan (04-01-2020)
Chip R (04-01-2020)
WHAT !!!!
No one knows if they have a good model, because the final chapter isn't written. Models project outcomes, no one knows how good they were until the ink is dry in the history books.
Public confidence and transparency for action are based on the model, so you have to release the information you are working from. And both national and state officials have been very good at explaining the models are estimates that get refined each step of the way when the actual data comes in.
Modeling in this case is a process that is evolving daily, and unless you have the ultimate crystal ball that can tell us all the ultimate outcome then....
I personally find a lot of value in being able to know what model they are using and how it is being put together.
Hypnotoad (04-02-2020),schmidty622 (04-01-2020)
Yes - he spoke of same day turnaround in some cases, or one day
as opposed to days at private labs. He said hospitals who do not have testing facilities will take their test samples to hospitals that do, or to state facilities. So it becomes a logistics situation, not a testing situation.
Also, the Ohio Health Dept. is going to 3 shifts.
So, where do we as a nation stand?
As of 4 pm EST - 4/3
The Executive Branch initially had a 15-day social distancing plan, that's been extended an additional 30 days.
-----------------------------------------
COVID Tracking Project ---> Official Figures (tallied from each state's health department)
~19% of those tested thus far are testing positive.Day# - Date 2020 DofW - Positive - Negative - Pos + Neg - Pending - Hospitalized - Deaths - Total Tests
Day 19 - 3 Apr 2020 Fri - 271,915 - 1,135,356 - 1,407,271 - 61,980 - 35,991 - 6,962 - 1,469,251
Day 18 - 2 Apr 2020 Thu - 239,009 - 1,028,649 - 1,267,658 - 62,101 - 32,649 - 5,784 - 1,329,759
Day 17 - 1 Apr 2020 Wed - 210,770 - 939,190 - 1,149,960 - 59,687 - 31,142 - 4,700 - 1,209,647
Day 16 - 31 Mar 2020 Tue - 184,770 - 864,201 - 1,048,971 - 59,529 - 26,660 - 3,746 - 1,108,500
Day 15 - 30 Mar 2020 Mon - 160,530 - 784,324 - 944,854 - 65,382 - 22,303 - 2,939 - 1,010,236
Day 14 - 29 Mar 2020 Sun - 139,061 - 692,290 - 831,351 - 65,549 - 19,730 - 2,428 - 896,900
Day 13 - 28 Mar 2020 Sat - 118,234 - 617,470 - 735,704 - 65,712 - 16,729 - 1,965 - 801,416
Day 12 - 27 Mar 2020 Fri - 99,447 - 527,220 - 626,667 - 60,094 - 12,036 - 1,530 - 686,761
Day 11 - 26 Mar 2020 Thu - 80,735 - 438,603 - 519,338 - 60,251 - 10,131 - 1,163 - 579,589
Day 10 - 25 Mar 2020 Wed - 63,675 - 355,135 - 418,810 - 14,735 - 6,136 - 887 - 433,545
Day 9 - 24 Mar 2020 Tue - 51,970 - 292,758 - 344,728 - 14,433 - 4,468 - 675 - 359,161
Day 8 - 23 Mar 2020 Mon - 42,164 - 237,321 - 279,485 - 14,571 - 3,325 - 471 - 294,056
Day 7 - 22 Mar 2020 Sun - 31,888 - 193,463 - 225,351 - 2,842 - 2,554 - 398 - 228,193
Day 6 - 21 Mar 2020 Sat - 23,203 - 155,909 - 179,112 - 3,477 - 1,964 - 272 - 182,589
Day 5 - 20 Mar 2020 Fri - 17,038 - 118,147 - 135,185 - 3,336 - unk - 219 - 138,521
Day 4 - 19 Mar 2020 Thu - 11,723 - 89,119 - 100,842 - 3,025 - unk - 160 - 103,867
Day 3 - 18 Mar 2020 Wed - 7,731 - 66,225 - 73,956 - 2,538 - unk - 112 - 76,495
Day 2 - 17 Mar 2020 Tue - 5,723 - 47,604 - 53,327 - 1,687 - unk - 90 - 54,957
Day 1 - 16 Mar 2020 Mon - 4,019 - 36,104 - 40,123 - 1,691 - unk - 71 - 41,714
~16% of those who are reporting positive are serious enough (at the moment) to enter a hospital or a morgue.
Last edited by Kinsm; 04-03-2020 at 07:34 PM.
If I get this and die I just hope I last long enough to get .99 gas. I think the lowest i've ever gotten was like 1.27 when I first started driving. Just once in my life I would like gas under a dollar.
So, I really wonder what is going to happen once they go to POS testing. Because it would seem that getting the data from that type of testing would be more difficult.
It is clearly where we need to get, but labs have certain protocols that they use for reporting this stuff. Not sure how these rapid tests are going to do that. And one of the great things about the rapid tests will be the ability to further expand the data set that epidemiologists have to work from. But if it isn't recorded, the benefit of wide scale testing will be lost.
I can remember paying 1.05 in Northern Cincinnati in 1998, based on inflation that might be the cheapest it's ever been.
So I have been tracking your numbers since you have been posting them Kinsm. The tests numbers in particular. And for several days now the testing numbers have leveled off at about 100,000. But one would think that the amount of testing done, is increasing daily. I wonder if it has truly flat lined or if all the testing results just aren't getting reported.
Last edited by jup; 04-01-2020 at 08:08 PM.
We have a testing shortage right now, not enough swabs. Ohio in particular is having that problem.
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