COVID-19 Thread Part 2

[757690]

I am all in favor of a permanent fence keeping NY/NE snowbirds from invading Florida

Actually, the more pressing issue is keeping people from anywhere, traveling to Florida For a beach vacation, getting the virus, and then going back to where they came from and spreading it there.

[jup]

Actually, the more pressing issue is keeping people from anywhere, traveling to Florida For a beach vacation, getting the virus, and then going back to where they came from and spreading it there.

The virus will spread there is no doubt about that, and that really isn't even a point of debate. It spread before everyone was told to stay home, it will spread as people go back out.

It is where it spreads and at what rate that is really the only pragmatic way to look at it. Social distancing will continue to happen. That has helped dampen the curves almost everywhere and will continue to dampen the rate of infection even after opening. The population that has to be defended is now well defined and can be identified through various methods so it can be defended. The resources to do that are expanded by the day.

What will be necessary will be the ability to match the resources to the areas of need, and be nimble as hell to move in the necessary resources where the virus is getting out of control. But to think that rural counties aren't going to see spread from urban areas is just not realistic. However, to think rural areas haven't already had to deal with that is also foolish. That is how the virus got there in the first place, prior to everyone being told to stay home. The difference is, those more rural counties will be on the lookout and the people coming in will be prepared to manage themselves by social distancing. And that will help manage the spread.

Like many have said - are we going to lock everyone up until there is a vaccine ??? No occurrence of the virus ??? While we watch 30% of our population be decimated by not being able to earn a living. Will we sit and watch the the division grow between the haves in the digital economy that can work from home and the blue collar workers that can't. None of that is practical. So the virus will spread, they will have to mitigate where it flares up too strongly, we will all have to be responsible for mitigating the effects as best as possible in our own personal lives, and the county will start moving back to some kind of normality

[Wonderful Monds]

66% of Americans are worried that lockdowns will be lifted too early

https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covi...distancing-end

I think the idea that anything about the economy is going to be back to normal anytime soon isn’t really realistic. Most people are still afraid of leaving their homes. If it’s still spreading pretty readily, I don’t see that changing either.

[Boston Red]

I got an email this afternoon saying that my kids' baseball season is supposed to start May 27. So I need to start practicing again in about 10 days. Kind of insane. I'll check in with the parents tomorrow and find out how serious parents in Wichita, KS are about social distancing.

[jup]

I got an email this afternoon saying that my kids' baseball season is supposed to start May 27. So I need to start practicing again in about 10 days. Kind of insane. I'll check in with the parents tomorrow and find out how serious parents in Wichita, KS are about social distancing.

I'll take the over on the parents wanting to do it

[Boston Red]

I'll take the over on the parents wanting to do it

In Wichita? You're almost certainly correct.

[BuckeyeRed27]

The virus will spread there is no doubt about that, and that really isn't even a point of debate. It spread before everyone was told to stay home, it will spread as people go back out.

It is where it spreads and at what rate that is really the only pragmatic way to look at it. Social distancing will continue to happen. That has helped dampen the curves almost everywhere and will continue to dampen the rate of infection even after opening. The population that has to be defended is now well defined and can be identified through various methods so it can be defended. The resources to do that are expanded by the day.

What will be necessary will be the ability to match the resources to the areas of need, and be nimble as hell to move in the necessary resources where the virus is getting out of control. But to think that rural counties aren't going to see spread from urban areas is just not realistic. However, to think rural areas haven't already had to deal with that is also foolish. That is how the virus got there in the first place, prior to everyone being told to stay home. The difference is, those more rural counties will be on the lookout and the people coming in will be prepared to manage themselves by social distancing. And that will help manage the spread.

Like many have said - are we going to lock everyone up until there is a vaccine ??? No occurrence of the virus ??? While we watch 30% of our population be decimated by not being able to earn a living. Will we sit and watch the the division grow between the haves in the digital economy that can work from home and the blue collar workers that can't. None of that is practical. So the virus will spread, they will have to mitigate where it flares up too strongly, we will all have to be responsible for mitigating the effects as best as possible in our own personal lives, and the county will start moving back to some kind of normality

You kinda answered what needs to happen. Much more planning, being able to move resources, etc.

That doesn’t exist right now at the needed level. It’s not about case levels or hot spots or vaccines (although that would be great).

[Redhook]

In Wichita? You're almost certainly correct.

Absolutely. I’m 67 for 67 (groups of 4-6) for participation starting next week. Not a single complaint/concern. Parents are so thankful and happy their kids will have something to do. We’re outside and have plenty of space which helps a lot. I teach golf which is probably the easiest sport to maintain social distancing. I have stations setup every 15’ and juniors will maintain that distance throughout the classes. For baseball, it’ll be more challenging. The ball is shared and social distancing is nearly impossible. I’m curious to hear how it plays out.

[Redhook]

This has gone from quarantining and shutting down businesses and having society take a time out so we can "flatten the curve" and allow hospitals to treat everyone humanely and secure enough PPE for safe and elective procedures, etc.

Now the narrative seems to be shut everythng down until the world eliminates the virus

20+ years later we still don't have a vaccine for HIV and SARS

One size doesn't fit all. We had one metro area (albeit our most important financial and cultural center) lose control with 60% of the national deaths to date. Fortunately it seems to be getting better day by day in NYC but they will be the last to open... (gotta keep the MTA going)

Gradual phasing in of economic recovery seems the path. Some states and regions will be on a different path than others.

The three South Florida counties with heavy NY/NE ties have ~30% of the population and 60% of the cases in Florida. The rest of the 16M people in Florida have a per capita infection rate lower than all but 5 mostly rural US states.

Excellent and spot-on posts today.

[dougdirt]

ProPublica with a tweet thread of note this afternoon (https://twitter.com/propublica/statu...51877787467779)

We interviewed experts and frontline officials from Italy, Germany, Spain, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea.

Of all of them, we found more commonalities than differences. So…

These are the 7 things we must do before we open up America.

1. Build an army of contact tracers

*Every* expert we talked to said it’s important to know exactly where the virus is spreading.

The only reliable way to do this is via “contact tracers” who can track down the contacts of anyone who tests positive.

While this sounds like an obvious step, it comes with demanding logistics that few — if any — U.S. states are able to carry out right now, such as:

“It usually takes four or five people over three days to do one full contact trace, on average,”

— @ASlavitt
, fmr head of @CMSGov
during the Obama administration.

He said California (40M pop) could need up to 20k contract tracers, depending on circumstances.

Wuhan, China (11M pop) deployed 9,000+ contact tracers…

@NYDailyNews
reported last month that NYC was hoping to triple the number from 50 to 150.

NYC’s health department did not respond to a request for comment.

2. Test. Constantly.

You’re sick of hearing about it, we know.

BUT. Our experts agreed that the inability to do widespread testing for the virus is the central reason it has spread so widely in the U.S.

3. Isolate people w/ suspected infection from their families.
This is a really tough one.

It goes against everything the family-centered American society supposedly treasures.

That said, what we’ve learned in Italy, Taiwan and our country is sobering.

NY authorities originally told anyone with symptoms to “self-isolate” in a single room in their home for 14 days, avoiding contact with other people living in the same place.

But that ignores a lot of fundamental facts of life. What about people who:

-live in single-room apartments
- don’t have two bathrooms.
- aren’t meticulous about wiping down door handles or wearing gloves and masks when they wash dishes

The result?

In city after city: horrifying stories about one parent, then a second parent, then the children ending up dead or ill.

Separating people for 14 days is tough. It would be massively unpopular.

Many experts suggested using hotels to isolate those who test positive.

4. Protect health care workers.

Protect. Your. Healthcare. Workers.

One of the lessons from Wuhan and Italy is that you have to be utterly meticulous about protecting doctors and nurses. If you don't the hospitals become a vector for infection and you lose the frontline people.

Or worse — If you need them to handle a second wave of infections, even a smaller one, they may stop coming to work.

You need to stockpile PPE & supplies before reopening. This is not optional.

5. Don’t try to go back to “normal”

Our goal isn’t to get back to a pre-pandemic way of life, but instead to employ whatever tools it takes to keep transmission as low as possible while restarting your economy.

This means:
-masks
-temperature checks
-6-foot distancing

Things that are relatively new concepts for the US, and are already proving unpopular.

Too bad, our experts said.

These measures save lives.

6. Watch out for the 2nd wave

The initial success stories in fighting COVID-19 — Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea — all saw a rise in cases in March. Even after getting new cases down, you have to maintain constant vigilance to keep the rate low.

What will this take?
For starters, a national system tracking flu-like symptoms. Epidemiologists call it “sentinel surveillance.”

It’s the kind of system we should have had in the first place…

And lastly…
7. Communicate. Clearly. Constantly.

***Governors and other state leaders:***
One thing that came through in many of our interviews around the world was the importance of communicating clearly and consistently about the actions you take.

You’re going to have to persuade voters to do things they won’t like at a moment of unparalleled partisan rancor, record unemployment, disarray in your state’s traditional media outlets and divisions among eminent scientists.

After those interviews, we asked American experts If they thought we could do it.

Their answer?

None of you are close to being ready.

All of the above are things that America’s governors need to do and take seriously.

[jup]

Number 6

No “sentinel surveillance.” ?????

Really !!!! They haven't been tracking the flu in the USA through sentinel surveillance for years ????

[757690]

Number 6

No “sentinel surveillance.” ?????

Really !!!! They haven't been tracking the flu in the USA through sentinel surveillance for years ????

We definitely don't have one for this coronavirus.

[schmidty622]

ProPublica with a tweet thread of note this afternoon (https://twitter.com/propublica/statu...51877787467779)

We interviewed experts and frontline officials from Italy, Germany, Spain, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea.

Of all of them, we found more commonalities than differences. So…

These are the 7 things we must do before we open up America.

1. Build an army of contact tracers

*Every* expert we talked to said it’s important to know exactly where the virus is spreading.

The only reliable way to do this is via “contact tracers” who can track down the contacts of anyone who tests positive.

While this sounds like an obvious step, it comes with demanding logistics that few — if any — U.S. states are able to carry out right now, such as:

“It usually takes four or five people over three days to do one full contact trace, on average,”

— @ASlavitt
, fmr head of @CMSGov
during the Obama administration.

He said California (40M pop) could need up to 20k contract tracers, depending on circumstances.

Wuhan, China (11M pop) deployed 9,000+ contact tracers…

@NYDailyNews
reported last month that NYC was hoping to triple the number from 50 to 150.

NYC’s health department did not respond to a request for comment.

2. Test. Constantly.

You’re sick of hearing about it, we know.

BUT. Our experts agreed that the inability to do widespread testing for the virus is the central reason it has spread so widely in the U.S.

3. Isolate people w/ suspected infection from their families.
This is a really tough one.

It goes against everything the family-centered American society supposedly treasures.

That said, what we’ve learned in Italy, Taiwan and our country is sobering.

NY authorities originally told anyone with symptoms to “self-isolate” in a single room in their home for 14 days, avoiding contact with other people living in the same place.

But that ignores a lot of fundamental facts of life. What about people who:

-live in single-room apartments
- don’t have two bathrooms.
- aren’t meticulous about wiping down door handles or wearing gloves and masks when they wash dishes

The result?

In city after city: horrifying stories about one parent, then a second parent, then the children ending up dead or ill.

Separating people for 14 days is tough. It would be massively unpopular.

Many experts suggested using hotels to isolate those who test positive.

4. Protect health care workers.

Protect. Your. Healthcare. Workers.

One of the lessons from Wuhan and Italy is that you have to be utterly meticulous about protecting doctors and nurses. If you don't the hospitals become a vector for infection and you lose the frontline people.

Or worse — If you need them to handle a second wave of infections, even a smaller one, they may stop coming to work.

You need to stockpile PPE & supplies before reopening. This is not optional.

5. Don’t try to go back to “normal”

Our goal isn’t to get back to a pre-pandemic way of life, but instead to employ whatever tools it takes to keep transmission as low as possible while restarting your economy.

This means:
-masks
-temperature checks
-6-foot distancing

Things that are relatively new concepts for the US, and are already proving unpopular.

Too bad, our experts said.

These measures save lives.

6. Watch out for the 2nd wave

The initial success stories in fighting COVID-19 — Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea — all saw a rise in cases in March. Even after getting new cases down, you have to maintain constant vigilance to keep the rate low.

What will this take?
For starters, a national system tracking flu-like symptoms. Epidemiologists call it “sentinel surveillance.”

It’s the kind of system we should have had in the first place…

And lastly…
7. Communicate. Clearly. Constantly.

***Governors and other state leaders:***
One thing that came through in many of our interviews around the world was the importance of communicating clearly and consistently about the actions you take.

You’re going to have to persuade voters to do things they won’t like at a moment of unparalleled partisan rancor, record unemployment, disarray in your state’s traditional media outlets and divisions among eminent scientists.

After those interviews, we asked American experts If they thought we could do it.

Their answer?

None of you are close to being ready.

All of the above are things that America’s governors need to do and take seriously.

8. Inject sunlight and / or disinfectant into your body and see what happens ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Kingspoint]

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN2253I6

“We need to do better,” Trudeau told reporters at his daily briefing. “Because we are failing our parents, our grandparents, our elders - the greatest generation who built this country. We need to care for them properly.”

"Quebec is short 9,500 front-line workers, Premier Francois Legault said, although it has recruited about 800 people including doctors - and the army - to work in the province’s care facilities and nursing homes. Some 4,000 of the missing staff have contracted the virus, he said."

[Kingspoint]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN2253HW

“In our filing we will make clear that Dr. Bright was sidelined for one reason only — because he resisted efforts to provide unfettered access to potentially dangerous drugs, including chloroquine, a drug promoted by the administration as a panacea, but which is untested and possibly deadly when used improperly,” his lawyers said in a statement.