Mock drafts and talent evaluations are two different animals. Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News was awesome at mocks but he has 48 yrs of NFL contacts. Greg Cosel who I love does mostly talent evaluation, he knows his prospects and is like Kiper and Mayock in preparation. Daniel Jeremiah who worked as a scout and in a front office will do both. The good mock draft folks will hit on 30 percent of their picks...the rest just do it for clicks to their sites.
Hillsdale, that 30% number was made up in your head. Someone quoted here that out of millions of people who entered a contest last season, the winner got 13 out of 32 right, and that's the first round, by far ten times easier than any other round.
Before the draft begins, pick one "expert", who you think is "good" as you say, post his mock, and we'll look at his percentage for each round.
I doubt if "the good" amateurs, and it doesn't matter who they know because guys like Jeremiah couldn't make the right choice if it came down to two people to choose from. If Jeremiah says it, you can be sure that I disregard it. Kiper is a joke around the NFL, as are most media who do mock drafts. There's no way the "good" one's can get 20% of the picks right once outside the Top-10, which any secretary at the office can get as well. I entered the contest once. I got 12. That was in the 96-percentile, again, out of millions who entered.
That quote by Ian Rappaport was a G.M. laughing at these "experts" moreso this year than he laughs at them every year. None of them are experts in evaluating NFL talent. None of them. Even the former members of the NFL. The key here is "former". Once in a blue moon, a draft board is leaked, like the Cowboys was when the Bengals took Atkins.
There's also the problem where the Scouts never make the picks. G.M.'s make the picks and whoever has the most influential voice in the room is how the team leads. Even the board is probably heavily influenced by people who aren't scouts. I think employed NFL scouts know what they are doing. But, it's a long process that can break down anywhere along the way between a scout's assessment and the player's performance over their careers. I don't think the scouts are at fault very much. I think it's the G.M.'s the most. Head Coaches second. Been comparing media mocks for far too long and I find them to be absolutely horrible, at best.
