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Thread: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

  1. #31
    Member Kingspoint's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Mock drafts and talent evaluations are two different animals. Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News was awesome at mocks but he has 48 yrs of NFL contacts. Greg Cosel who I love does mostly talent evaluation, he knows his prospects and is like Kiper and Mayock in preparation. Daniel Jeremiah who worked as a scout and in a front office will do both. The good mock draft folks will hit on 30 percent of their picks...the rest just do it for clicks to their sites.

    Hillsdale, that 30% number was made up in your head. Someone quoted here that out of millions of people who entered a contest last season, the winner got 13 out of 32 right, and that's the first round, by far ten times easier than any other round.

    Before the draft begins, pick one "expert", who you think is "good" as you say, post his mock, and we'll look at his percentage for each round.

    I doubt if "the good" amateurs, and it doesn't matter who they know because guys like Jeremiah couldn't make the right choice if it came down to two people to choose from. If Jeremiah says it, you can be sure that I disregard it. Kiper is a joke around the NFL, as are most media who do mock drafts. There's no way the "good" one's can get 20% of the picks right once outside the Top-10, which any secretary at the office can get as well. I entered the contest once. I got 12. That was in the 96-percentile, again, out of millions who entered.

    That quote by Ian Rappaport was a G.M. laughing at these "experts" moreso this year than he laughs at them every year. None of them are experts in evaluating NFL talent. None of them. Even the former members of the NFL. The key here is "former". Once in a blue moon, a draft board is leaked, like the Cowboys was when the Bengals took Atkins.

    There's also the problem where the Scouts never make the picks. G.M.'s make the picks and whoever has the most influential voice in the room is how the team leads. Even the board is probably heavily influenced by people who aren't scouts. I think employed NFL scouts know what they are doing. But, it's a long process that can break down anywhere along the way between a scout's assessment and the player's performance over their careers. I don't think the scouts are at fault very much. I think it's the G.M.'s the most. Head Coaches second. Been comparing media mocks for far too long and I find them to be absolutely horrible, at best.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 04-23-2020 at 02:42 AM.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."


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  3. #32
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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Because of the social distancing, there has been an awful lot of information that's normally circulated about the draft that simply hasn't been out there this season.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Finally. Draft day is here. I'm tired scrolling past worthless mock draft predictions that are never right.

    I can't believe I'd see the day when I'd rather here guys talk about their fantasy teams.

  6. #34
    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Gack View Post
    Finally. Draft day is here. I'm tired scrolling past worthless mock draft predictions that are never right.

    I can't believe I'd see the day when I'd rather here guys talk about their fantasy teams.
    Who hurt you...

    Mocks are fun but even the best at it are only right 30 percent or less. I do one a year with NFL.com that’s my limit with them.
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

  7. #35
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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    I really hope they get a G/T type in round 2 or 3. Especially one who has done that on the right. I wish Isaiah Wilson hadn't gotten such late helium - he was ideal for that spot somewhere in two for quite awhile...
    Houston's Josh Jones may be available at the top of the 2nd round. He'd be fantastic there. If Becton falls, he's a no-brainer. Maybe Ezra Cleveland. After that, I'm waiting or trading back. USC's Austin Jackson isn't worth the 33rd pick. And under-the-radar pick could be Saahdiq Charles from LSU. He's super athletic (5.05 40 time) but a bit small. Had some real issues with pot, but really, so what? He can play guard too. As a multi-positional backup to start his career, then perhaps something more, he'd be a steal in the 4thround.

    They may gamble with Louisiana-LaFayette's OG Robert Hunt, one of the top offensive guard prospects in the draft. He profiles as a 3rd round pick-- which seems high for a guard. Damien Lewis (from LSU) is a 4th rounder; he'd be a solid get. I think Logan Stenburg as a 5th rounder would be a solid help to the line. (And that may be a round early.) They saw and liked him at the Senior Bowl, IIRC. Smart, tough, mean streak, and productive, he's massive and has been through the wars in the SEC. Part of an absolutely dominant line as well. OSU's Jonah Jackson is another possibility but at the consensus 102nd spot? That's a high pick for a guard.

    Just as a note, Cole Kmet is the top TE in the draft and could be available in the 3rd. He'd be a nice weapon.

  8. #36
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    PFF said three people to avoid, as in way overrated by the amateurs..

    Becton, Cushenberry and Austin Jackson.
    PFF is fantastic for the NFL but I find their college analysis to be lacking.

    Just for example, the Wisconsin QB was chosen all B1G over Haskins last year. For some reasons their metrics don't translate as well to college as they do to the NFL.

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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    PFF is fantastic for the NFL but I find their college analysis to be lacking.

    Just for example, the Wisconsin QB was chosen all B1G over Haskins last year. For some reasons their metrics don't translate as well to college as they do to the NFL.
    I agree. It seems like college would be a lot more difficult to do statistical analysis for because the level of competition is so much wider than the NFL and the schemes are so much more varied.

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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by KoryMac5 View Post
    Who hurt you...

    Mocks are fun but even the best at it are only right 30 percent or less. I do one a year with NFL.com that’s my limit with them.
    I did them for like a year or two in my teens, grew up, and then realized how terrible or inaccurate they all ended up being. Not to mention, an incredible waste of time.

  11. #39
    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Schefter reported Miami called multiple times over 2 weeks to offer the Bengals a trade...Bengals stood firm. Miami is supposedly moving to 3 tonight.
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

  12. #40
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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Gack View Post
    I did them for like a year or two in my teens, grew up, and then realized how terrible or inaccurate they all ended up being. Not to mention, an incredible waste of time.
    My entire state is locked down so I got nothing but time....
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

  13. #41
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    This is the big day we've been tanking for all year long!

    Still grateful the December Miracle in Miami comeback fell short in OT

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    Hillsdale87 (04-23-2020),Hoosier Red (04-24-2020),membengal (04-23-2020),North (04-23-2020),Redsfaithful (04-23-2020)

  15. #42
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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by oregonred View Post
    This is the big day we've been tanking for all year long!

    Still grateful the December Miracle in Miami comeback fell short in OT
    Given the fates of their last five 1st round picks (ok 4...last year's is in pending status), I am greatful they have a no-brainer top pick that they can't mess up!

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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by KoryMac5 View Post
    My entire state is locked down so I got nothing but time....
    Solid point. I haven't been online any more than usual, but that's my anecdotal guess as to why there's more this year.

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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Quote Originally Posted by KoryMac5 View Post
    Schefter reported Miami called multiple times over 2 weeks to offer the Bengals a trade...Bengals stood firm. Miami is supposedly moving to 3 tonight.
    I'd consider trading with the #3 pick whether it was Miami or the Giants. Dolphins would have to offer all 1st round picks this year and next, plus a 2nd or 3rd this year.

  18. #45
    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Thread Part 2: The Joe Burrow Era is Almost Here!

    Wondering how many Burrow babies will be conceived tonight....
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.


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