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Thread: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

  1. #16
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    They are about 2 years ahead of where they would normally be in terms of vaccine development. Now, the volunteers participating are putting themselves at great risk, but because so many restrictions have been discarded a vaccine might be found quicker than anyone thought possible.

    Oxford says they might have one ready by September:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ox...of2&yptr=yahoo

    If everything would go perfect it would be nice to dream of a World Series in November in front of fans.
    Perfect until Iglesias blows the save in Game 7.

    What?

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  4. #17
    Member North's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Me either, at least not quickly.

    Even if one is around by September, it would take many months to get it produced and administered to enough people to allow big stadium events.
    Did you read the link I provided?

    edit...I didn't say the above as a challenge or dig. But the link persuades against a vaccine becoming viable in a near-term scenario. Your comments on logistics are of course correct.
    Last edited by North; 04-25-2020 at 01:26 AM.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    I think the difference here might be that there is essentially unlimited funding, and virtually every scientist working in the field is focusing on creating a vaccine. On top of that everything is being fast-tracked. I mean Oxford is already into human trials on their Covid vaccine, which is just insane according to timelines.

    You can essentially take all the work, research, money, resources used for every other vaccine ever developed or worked on and times it by about 1,000,000. Now, maybe even with the full resources of the world it doesn't happen, but I do have hope that it will.

  7. #19
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    I think the difference here might be that there is essentially unlimited funding, and virtually every scientist working in the field is focusing on creating a vaccine. On top of that everything is being fast-tracked. I mean Oxford is already into human trials on their Covid vaccine, which is just insane according to timelines.

    You can essentially take all the work, research, money, resources used for every other vaccine ever developed or worked on and times it by about 1,000,000. Now, maybe even with the full resources of the world it doesn't happen, but I do have hope that it will.
    You’re not wrong here. I keep asking myself - what if the same focus had been placed on AIDS?

    No complaints - just we’ve never seen such laser-focus.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    And you can essentially throw out all the timelines for after a vaccine is created. All the other timelines represent a world where the entire economy isn't dependent on it being administered. I've read about how Bill Gates already has things setup through his foundation that if one of the vaccines he's working on goes to human trials they're going to start mass producing it in advance. And he admitted that most will fail, and they'll have to discard the failed vaccine and it will cost billions, but the need to have it available as soon as it's proven is so great that the billions or trillions are worth the months it would save. You can't compare any other vaccine timeline to this, especially not if one is proven to be effective.

  10. #21
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    We can't even ramp up testing in this country right now and we're going to somehow be able to fast track vaccines?

    Color me skeptical.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    We can't even ramp up testing in this country right now and we're going to somehow be able to fast track vaccines?

    Color me skeptical.
    Seems to be something missing here, because clearly testing has been ramped up. Maybe - can't even ramp up testing enough in your opinion

    Scaling hasn't been perfect, but you can find that to be true of most things in this world in somebodies opinion somewhere. Just have to ask enough people. The actual number of tests done daily just doesn't support that testing hasn't been ramped up

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Seems to be something missing here, because clearly testing has been ramped up. Maybe - can't even ramp up testing enough in your opinion

    Scaling hasn't been perfect, but you can find that to be true of most things in this world in somebodies opinion somewhere. Just have to ask enough people. The actual number of tests done daily just doesn't support that testing hasn't been ramped up
    We are at about 5M total tests now in a little over a month. We need to be able to do about that many in a week. The number of tests is increasing, so if that feels like a ramp up fine, but to get to the level we need at the pace we are on...we will probably have a vaccine first, unless something changes.

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Seems to be something missing here, because clearly testing has been ramped up. Maybe - can't even ramp up testing enough in your opinion

    Scaling hasn't been perfect, but you can find that to be true of most things in this world in somebodies opinion somewhere. Just have to ask enough people. The actual number of tests done daily just doesn't support that testing hasn't been ramped up
    4 million people in Oregon, only 44k have been tested. How is that acceptable?

    The fact is the government has screwed the pooch as far testing goes, royally. No spin can dispute that

    US: 5 million

    Germany + Russia + Italy = 6.4 million

    3 countries counted and they’ve done more than the US.

    And per capita?

    The US ranks 34th, just ahead of Belarus.
    Last edited by westofyou; 04-25-2020 at 12:43 PM.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    4 million people in Oregon, only 44k have been tested. How is that acceptable?

    The fact is the government has screwed the pooch as far testing goes, royally. No spin can dispute that

    US: 5 million

    Germany + Russia + Italy = 6.4 million

    3 countries counted and they’ve done more than the US.

    And per capita?

    The US ranks 34th, just ahead of Belarus.
    Did you just count Russia? Germany and Italy are fine. But Russia? According to Russia's numbers, it has a 2% infection rate and mortality rate of .9%. That's even below China's 'reported' numbers.

    With that said, I do think we need to test more and the Feds have messed this up. I blame our current president and former president and I also blame history. How many times have we been threatened with some type of virus only to not have it come to fruition. No one really remembers H1N1, SARS, MERS, etc because it was never a threat and it had nothing to do with us being 'prepared.' We were never really prepared because nothing has been as contagious or overwhelming as this this has been.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    We are at about 5M total tests now in a little over a month. We need to be able to do about that many in a week. The number of tests is increasing, so if that feels like a ramp up fine, but to get to the level we need at the pace we are on...we will probably have a vaccine first, unless something changes.
    Didn't voice an opinion on whether it is enough or not, just looking at the facts, and the facts show that it has been increasing. Feeling like a ramp up is subjective, to each his own

  18. #27
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Gack View Post
    Did you just count Russia? Germany and Italy are fine. But Russia? According to Russia's numbers, it has a 2% infection rate and mortality rate of .9%. That's even below China's 'reported' numbers.

    With that said, I do think we need to test more and the Feds have messed this up. I blame our current president and former president and I also blame history. How many times have we been threatened with some type of virus only to not have it come to fruition. No one really remembers H1N1, SARS, MERS, etc because it was never a threat and it had nothing to do with us being 'prepared.' We were never really prepared because nothing has been as contagious or overwhelming as this this has been.

    Yes, let's look backwards years for blame!!

    We're #35!

  19. #28
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Yes, let's look backwards years for blame!!

    We're #35!
    Does it make you feel better that I place most of the blame on the current administration? As little as our current president has taken responsibility, our previous administration took less.

    Come on WOY, how many times did we blame Booosh for everything that was wrong with America? And now that our current administration does the same to O for everything, we have bleeding hearts crying about 'lack of leadership' and not taking responsibility. Isn't it an American tradition to blame previous regimes?
    Last edited by Todd Gack; 04-25-2020 at 02:26 PM.

  20. #29
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    4 million people in Oregon, only 44k have been tested. How is that acceptable?

    The fact is the government has screwed the pooch as far testing goes, royally. No spin can dispute that

    US: 5 million

    Germany + Russia + Italy = 6.4 million

    3 countries counted and they’ve done more than the US.

    And per capita?

    The US ranks 34th, just ahead of Belarus.
    Oregon is seemingly doing really well though it appears. (More testing would increase the numbers of cases but the death count is relatively good.) What are you seeing on the ground?

  21. #30
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    4 million people in Oregon, only 44k have been tested. How is that acceptable?

    The fact is the government has screwed the pooch as far testing goes, royally. No spin can dispute that

    US: 5 million

    Germany + Russia + Italy = 6.4 million

    3 countries counted and they’ve done more than the US.

    And per capita?

    The US ranks 34th, just ahead of Belarus.
    Your whole scale up per capita math is a little misleading. Lets take Germany for instance

    Germany pop 83 million - lets say your system is set up to test 1% of the pop for sickness at any given time - so 830K of tests. Lets say it is designed to be able to ramp this manufacturing capability 50% - 1,245K tests - an increase of 415K

    US pop 330 million - 1% => 3,300K => ramp capability of 50% increase of 1,650K.

    Now if we ask - which would you rather go find raw supplies to ramp this up with? Germany at 415K OR THE USA at 1,650K?

    Quite the easier job doing that for Germany. Probably are going to be a little more successful.

    It is kind of like having 10 people over for Thanksgiving or 40. Maybe the ovens can cook for 10 or 40 but the logistics to do the cooking for 40 and 10 are much different. Our grocery stores are pretty good at not running out of turkeys and stuff because they know it is Thanksgiving, but they sure weren't too good at toilet paper for the corona virus. Probably because they did not know it was coming.

    Small countries can ramp up much easier on the supply chain side because they only need a small percentage of the total reserve that is available. Filling their request out of the inventory available isn't nearly as hard as trying to adjust for the increased amount of the largest user, because that overwhelms the supply. Just look at NY and ventilators. Seems like they were having all sorts of problems at first trying to find the number projected. But it didn't seem to be as problematic for many other smaller areas and jurisdictions. Finding 1 is just a hell of a lot easier than finding 10
    Last edited by jup; 04-25-2020 at 02:59 PM.


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