Turn Off Ads?
Page 3 of 68 FirstFirst 12345671353 ... LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 1017

Thread: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

  1. #31
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    49,711

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Your whole scale up per capita math is a little misleading. Lets take Germany for instance

    Germany pop 83 million - lets say your system is set up to test 1% of the pop for sickness at any given time - so 830K of tests. Lets say it is designed to be able to ramp this manufacturing capability 50% - 1,245K tests - an increase of 415K

    US pop 330 million - 1% => 3,300K => ramp capability of 50% increase of 1,650K.

    Now if we ask - which would you rather go find raw supplies to ramp this up with? Germany at 415K OR THE USA at 1,650K?

    Quite the easier job doing that for Germany. Probably are going to be a little more successful.

    It is kind of like having 10 people over for Thanksgiving or 40. Maybe the ovens can cook for 10 or 40 but the logistics to do the cooking for 40 and 10 are much different. Our grocery stores are pretty good at not running out of turkeys and stuff because they know it is Thanksgiving, but they sure weren't too good at toilet paper for the corona virus. Probably because they did not know it was coming.

    Small countries can ramp up much easier on the supply chain side because they only need a small percentage of the total reserve that is available. Filling their request out of the inventory available isn't nearly as hard as trying to adjust for the increased amount of the largest user, because that overwhelms the supply. Just look at NY and ventilators. Seems like they were having all sorts of problems at first trying to find the number projected. But it didn't seem to be as problematic for many other smaller areas and jurisdictions. Finding 1 is just a hell of a lot easier than finding 10
    It's not MY scale, it's the worlds scale

  2. Likes:

    Redsfaithful (04-25-2020)


  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #32
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    24,556

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    The US has more people than Germany, but it also has more resources and more money. The US doesn’t have a problem making more cars, beds, TV’s, or MRI machines than Germany. We’ve always been able to make enough for what we need.

    To use the Thanksgiving analogy, one family would have a harder time feeding 40 people over 10 people, but a Golden Corral would be able to feed 40 people easily.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  5. #33
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Posts
    175

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    It's not MY scale, it's the worlds scale
    Sorry for using "your" with scale up.

    The math behind your post about the relative abilities of countries to scale up testing on a per capita bases can be a little misleading.

    Is that any better ??

  6. #34
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    49,711

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Oregon is seemingly doing really well though it appears. (More testing would increase the numbers of cases but the death count is relatively good.) What are you seeing on the ground?
    In Portland I see mostly people adhering to stay at home, most riding it out and not making waves. I live in a dense neighborhood at the bottom of the city, lots of families and easy accessible grocery and hardware stores, so traffic by car is way down, lots of people walking and riding bikes, all keeping distance. Our neighborhood has a lot of restaurants that I worry about in the coming months so I expect to see some of the weaker venues lose ground. We are surrounded by open land so you can still get in a car or on a bike and be out in nature, so some still do that in local open spaces. All the stores that are open tend to be proactive in protecting themselves and their customers.

    But that's just here... I have been out of my neighborhood only a couple times on my bike and downtown was completely empty except along the river where people are riding and walking

  7. #35
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    49,711

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Sorry for using "your" with scale up.

    The math behind your post about the relative abilities of countries to scale up testing on a per capita bases can be a little misleading.

    Is that any better ??
    Well we have the resources to scale up faster and yet we seem to not being doing that, however if I want gummy worms delivered to my house today I bet I can make that happen.

    I just find it hard to believe that this is the nation that is able to out produce the world when comes to war products but when it comes to testing kits we can't pull our heads out of our butts

  8. Likes:

    Redsfaithful (04-25-2020),Yachtzee (04-26-2020)

  9. #36
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Posts
    175

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The US has more people than Germany, but it also has more resources and more money. The US doesn’t have a problem making more cars, beds, TV’s, or MRI machines than Germany. We’ve always been able to make enough for what we need.

    To use the Thanksgiving analogy, one family would have a harder time feeding 40 people over 10 people, but a Golden Corral would be able to feed 40 people easily.
    That is true and misses the point completely.

    Golden corral feeds many more no doubt. But if the supply chain for Golden all of a sudden needs 200% of every item they use, and the family needs 200% of everything they use, the family's request in the supply chain can easily be handled by the reserves (Germany), but if Golden needs 200% (USA) having all those pieces to scale everything 200% is quite a different story. Especially if you have already filled requests for many "families". And lets not forget, both Asia and Europe went before the US on the spread of this virus thing.

    You are assuming an UNLIMITED supply in the supply chain. But supply chains simply don't work that way. So you slaughter 400K turkeys on April 15th even though you only project needing 2, just incase someone decides that they might declare a second Thanksgiving on that day? But come 3rd week in Nov. you probably would. And on April the 15th, if they do declare a second Thanks, the first couple people to the store that needed a turkey got 100% of their need filled. But someone else needing 10 turkeys not so much. Pretty hard to fix Thanksgiving dinner on April 15th without a turkey no matter how many ovens you have available.

  10. #37
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    24,556

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    That is true and misses the point completely.

    Golden corral feeds many more no doubt. But if the supply chain for Golden all of a sudden needs 200% of every item they use, and the family needs 200% of everything they use, the family's request in the supply chain can easily be handled by the reserves (Germany), but if Golden needs 200% (USA) having all those pieces to scale everything 200% is quite a different story. Especially if you have already filled requests for many "families". And lets not forget, both Asia and Europe went before the US on the spread of this virus thing.

    You are assuming an UNLIMITED supply in the supply chain. But supply chains simply don't work that way. So you slaughter 400K turkeys on April 15th even though you only project needing 2, just incase someone decides that they might declare a second Thanksgiving on that day? But come 3rd week in Nov. you probably would. And on April the 15th, if they do declare a second Thanks, the first couple people to the store that needed a turkey got 100% of their need filled. But someone else needing 10 turkeys not so much. Pretty hard to fix Thanksgiving dinner on April 15th without a turkey no matter how many ovens you have available.
    We knew we needed more test in January. We’ve had plenty of time to manufacture what we need on our own.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  11. Likes:

    Kingspoint (04-25-2020),Redsfaithful (04-25-2020)

  12. #38
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Posts
    175

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    It seems like the amount of testing available in the US was pretty sufficient as of last Oct. Sure wasn't anyone yelling about not having enough tests for the general things we need to test for. Now comes the virus, and all of a sudden, we need to test 1/3 of the entire population of the US according to many. And they are outraged that we can't.

    But how do you go from whatever we had to 100 million while still producing all the other stuff you also needed to have? Basically you are saying go from zero to 100 million in a couple months. When has 1/3 of the US population needed to be tested for anything, that would indicate we have the ability to deal with 100 million.

    I just find it (MY OPINION NOW) - very unrealistic to expect that any supply chain could support that kind of increase even if you happen to have the manufacturing capacity. And I spent 25 years running manufacturing businesses.

    A good example might be gas stations. - lets say the demand for gas suddenly surged 200 fold like this testing that people want surely has. And 200 fold is way low. Would their be enough gas, enough pumps to dispense even if the gas was available ????

    The noise about testing and ramp up is just that - noise - most of the ideas about what is viable IN THE TIME FRAME GIVEN are pipe dreams - IMO
    Last edited by jup; 04-25-2020 at 04:01 PM.

  13. #39
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2001
    Location
    Cleveland, OH
    Posts
    2,690

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    It seems like the amount of testing available in the US was pretty sufficient as of last Oct. Sure wasn't anyone yelling about not having enough tests for the general things we need to test for. Now comes the virus, and all of a sudden, we need to test 1/3 of the entire population of the US according to many. And they are outraged that we can't.

    But how do you go from whatever we had to 100 million while still producing all the other stuff you also needed to have? Basically you are saying go from zero to 100 million in a couple months. When has 1/3 of the US population needed to be tested for anything, that would indicate we have the ability to deal with 100 million.

    I just find it (MY OPINION NOW) - very unrealistic to expect that any supply chain could support that kind of increase even if you happen to have the manufacturing capacity. And I spent 25 years running manufacturing businesses.

    A good example might be gas stations. - lets say the demand for gas suddenly surged 200 fold like this testing that people want surely has. And 200 fold is way low. Would their be enough gas, enough pumps to dispense even if the gas was available ????

    The noise about testing and ramp up is just that - noise - most of the ideas about what is viable IN THE TIME FRAME GIVEN are pipe dreams - IMO
    You either are prepared or you absolutely hammer the problem when it happens. We did and have done neither. That’s unacceptable. The gas station can’t control the entire American manufacturing and supply chain. The government does have that capability and hasn’t done it. So it’s not noise. It’s a deafening loud failure.

  14. Likes:

    757690 (04-25-2020)

  15. #40
    Member BernieCarbo's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    1,428

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    It seems like the amount of testing available in the US was pretty sufficient as of last Oct. Sure wasn't anyone yelling about not having enough tests for the general things we need to test for. Now comes the virus, and all of a sudden, we need to test 1/3 of the entire population of the US according to many. And they are outraged that we can't.

    But how do you go from whatever we had to 100 million while still producing all the other stuff you also needed to have? Basically you are saying go from zero to 100 million in a couple months. When has 1/3 of the US population needed to be tested for anything, that would indicate we have the ability to deal with 100 million.

    I just find it (MY OPINION NOW) - very unrealistic to expect that any supply chain could support that kind of increase even if you happen to have the manufacturing capacity. And I spent 25 years running manufacturing businesses.

    A good example might be gas stations. - lets say the demand for gas suddenly surged 200 fold like this testing that people want surely has. And 200 fold is way low. Would their be enough gas, enough pumps to dispense even if the gas was available ????

    The noise about testing and ramp up is just that - noise - most of the ideas about what is viable IN THE TIME FRAME GIVEN are pipe dreams - IMO
    There are a few things going on here. I have also worked in industrial automation and logistics for a long time, and most people don't have a clue about it. And that's fine, there are a lot of things I don't have a clue about either. I don't need to understand how to design a microchip to use my computer.

    But, probably the biggest failure was with the first test kits that the CDC distributed- they gave false results because of contamination, and had to be recalled and remade, which set us back for weeks. This is pretty damning: https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...-feds-confirm/

    So, the biggest problem was that all of our eggs were in one basket. I can't speak to South Korea, but in Germany each "state" is responsible for and empowered with handling their own health care system. So, when this happened, they had 16 states contracting immediately with various companies in their respective areas to make tests, and it was unlikely that everyone would fail at the same time.

    So, it isn't really a manufacturing or supply chain problem here- it is purely a logistical failure. The CDC is a federal organization, and when they failed, there was no backup. Comparisons to Ford or Golden Corral or whatever are silly, because, overall, there is enough capacity and overlap to handle most surges. Even with this stupid hand sanitizer issue, we have so much ethanol stored up that we are shutting ethanol plants down, but the FDA won't permit it because it isn't food grade (food grade includes additives so it tastes bitter and kids won't drink it). In an emergency like this it should be easy enough to waive that, at least for hospitals or industrial users, but that's another bottleneck.

    So, I hope going forward we look at it like other countries do and give the feds less responsibility and have more regional control. If ten agencies are working in parallel on a problem, it's unlikely that they will all fail.

  16. Likes:

    Kingspoint (04-25-2020)

  17. #41
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    24,556

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    So, I hope going forward we look at it like other countries do and give the feds less responsibility and have more regional control. If ten agencies are working in parallel on a problem, it's unlikely that they will all fail.
    I couldn’t disagree more with this opinion.

    The main problem we have had with this entire crisis is that there was no national plan, no federal leadership or “Marshall plan” to address the many problems that arise.

    Germany and South Korea had a unified, well thought out national plan to address this. That is why they were successful.. That national plan included giving local communities some control which is smart, but it was all part of an overarching national plan.

    What we need is for the federal government to order the manufacturing of the tests, and the supplies needed to administer them, and to set up an efficient supply chain that distributes them logically to the places that need them the most. Right now, it’s pure free market, with no plan, and each state and community is bidding against each other (and the federal government) to get these tests and supplies.

    We need a national plan. The problem we have it that everything is left up to each state and community, and it’s pure chaos.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  18. #42
    Member BernieCarbo's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    1,428

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I couldn’t disagree more with this opinion.

    The main problem we have had with this entire crisis is that there was no national plan, no federal leadership or “Marshall plan” to address the many problems that arise.

    Germany and South Korea had a unified, well thought out national plan to address this. That is why they were successful.. That national plan included giving local communities some control which is smart, but it was all part of an overarching national plan.

    What we need is for the federal government to order the manufacturing of the tests, and the supplies needed to administer them, and to set up an efficient supply chain that distributes them logically to the places that need them the most. Right now, it’s pure free market, with no plan, and each state and community is bidding against each other (and the federal government) to get these tests and supplies.

    We need a national plan. The problem we have it that everything is left up to each state and community, and it’s pure chaos.
    The national plan failed, and they produced faulty tests. You have no idea what the system is in Germany. Again, we put all our eggs in one basket, and we failed.

    This is one perspective from a German scientist: https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...navirus-tests/

  19. Likes:

    Kingspoint (04-25-2020)

  20. #43
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2001
    Location
    Cleveland, OH
    Posts
    2,690

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by BernieCarbo View Post
    The national plan failed, and they produced faulty tests. You have no idea what the system is in Germany. Again, we put all our eggs in one basket, and we failed.

    This is one perspective from a German scientist: https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...navirus-tests/
    There was never a national plan that could have failed. The CDC screwed up. Even if they didn’t we still wouldn’t be in a significantly better position because all other aspects of a coordinated effort are lacking or missing.

  21. #44
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    24,556

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by BernieCarbo View Post
    The national plan failed, and they produced faulty tests. You have no idea what the system is in Germany. Again, we put all our eggs in one basket, and we failed.

    This is one perspective from a German scientist: https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...navirus-tests/
    There was no national plan. The testing failure is a result of the lack of a plan.

    You can argue this federal government is too incompetent to execute a national plan, but that doesn’t mean we don’t need one.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  22. #45
    Member BernieCarbo's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    1,428

    Re: COVID-19, Part 3, the re-opening phase

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    There was never a national plan that could have failed. The CDC screwed up. Even if they didn’t we still wouldn’t be in a significantly better position because all other aspects of a coordinated effort are lacking or missing.
    The CDC mission statement states that "CDC works 24/7 to protect America from health, safety and security threats, both foreign and in the U.S. ". That is their purpose. The national plan is that they do their job. They failed.

    And what do you mean we wouldn't have been in a better position if they hadn't failed? Even the CDC admits it is the worst failure in their history.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | cumberlandreds | Gallen5862 | Kinsm | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator