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Thread: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

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    COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    The results of the MLB antibody test are finally in.

    https://theathletic.com/1763139/2020...had-the-virus/

    And for you that don't have a subscription to The Athletic, the gist of it is below

    The Stanford study that tested 5,603 MLB employees for the presence of COVID-19 antibodies found just 60 positive cases, the lead researcher said on Sunday. After adjusting for potential testing error, the researchers reported a positive rate of 0.7 percent.

    The majority of those who tested positive were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms, said lead researcher Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University.

    “I was expecting a larger number of people to test positive,” Bhattacharya said. “These numbers indicate these numbers haven’t spread very far. But at the same time, we have had a zero percent mortality rate.”

    Twenty-seven teams participated in the study, which included not only Major League Baseball players but ushers, ticket takers and hot dog vendors of all ages, races and genders. According to Bhattacharya, this study is also one of the first to include people living in dozens of cities across the country in its subject group. Anaheim had the highest infection rate, followed by the two New York teams — though Bhattacharya stressed that all of these teams recorded rates lower than the counties they play in. The subjects in the study were 60 percent male and 40 percent female. While the study did include stadium staff, Bhattacharya says the respondents skewed toward a higher socioeconomic demographic than the general U.S. population.
    Too bad Cincy opted out, one of only 3 teams
    Last edited by jup; 05-10-2020 at 11:11 PM.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-...what-we-do?amp

    Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) on Sunday defended the steps he has taken to reopen parts of his state's economy, saying the safety precautions in place are meant to create consumer confidence.

    "It's a risk no matter what we do," DeWine said on "Fox News Sunday," noting the potential economic fallout from a prolonged shutdown and saying local businesses had helped develop best practices for reopening.

    "The economy's not going to open no matter what we do, whatever we order, unless people have confidence. And we're trying to give them confidence," he said, adding that the state would strongly encourage social distancing, masks and diligent hand-washing.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Ice cream shop closes one day after reopening because customers didn't follow social distancing rules
    By Alaa Elassar, CNN
    Updated 10:18 PM ET, Sun May 10, 2020

    ..."An ice cream shop in Massachusetts had to close its doors on Saturday, just one day after reopening, because customers refused to follow social distancing rules and even harassed employees.

    Things got so bad at the Polar Cave Ice Cream Parlour in Mashpee that an employee quit the same day.
    "One of my best workers quit yesterday at the end of her shift. She stuck it through her shift," owner Mark Lawrence told CNN affiliate WFXT. "But the words she was called and the language, you wouldn't even say in a men's locker room. And to say it to a 17-year-old kid, they should be ashamed of themselves."

    In accordance with reopening guidelines, Lawrence said the shop asked all customers to place their orders at least one hour in advance.
    However, many customers ignored the request and showed up without doing so. When the shop got busy, customers took their anger out on the staff, he said.

    "Now I open the doors to a whole new world, with gloves and masks and we're running around like chickens, and people are like where's my ice cream? I'm not a trauma center, it's ice cream!" Lawrence told WFXT.

    "People have forgotten how to treat other human beings in the six or seven weeks that they've been confined to their homes. They have no clue how to respect other human beings."

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/10/us/ic...rnd/index.html

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by BernieCarbo
    Part of the squawking is because people are fed up with the response. The self-employed couldn't file for unemployment for weeks, and the state just started processing them on May 6th and people will have to wait a few more weeks. The relief for business owners has been way too little and too late. He proposed May 1st as the beginning of opening up, but then people saw that the restrictions actually increased with the customer requirement to wear masks. He saw the reaction to all this (and it wasn't only about the masks), and suddenly there was a more aggressive plan to get things moving. I honestly think DeWine is a good guy, and as opposed to a lot of talking heads in politics, I think he actually relates to the pain that hundreds of thousands are feeling, and he acknowledged a choice: Start to open up a little more as the weather warms, or face a real meltdown of the populace over the next couple of months, which isn't healthy either. Like it or not, there is a real disparity in assistance, and some people are doing better than before and some are on the brink of losing everything. And then the people who are on the brink hear thing like "Oh, but money isn't more important than a life", which isn't exactly helpful to hear.
    Oh, I absolutely get why people are frustrated. I'm only questioning the thought process that the masses are clearly compliant and project to continue to be so when Dewine himself stated that he knew folks wouldn't accept a requirement to wear masks.

    It's not a hill I'm going to die on, and I have and I'll continue to do whatever is required of me, but this is what WHO says: "There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly". I don't pay attention to the CDC anymore, and they have a lot more to worry about anyway. I guess once they make tests available to everyone, we'll sort all this out.
    Actually, here's what the WHO states in their official release regarding non-medical mask wearing in "community" settings, which is the situation we're discussing:

    https://www.who.int/publications-det...ncov)-outbreak

    The use of masks made of other materials (e.g., cotton
    fabric), also known as nonmedical masks, in the community
    setting has not been well evaluated. There is no current
    evidence to make a recommendation for or against their use
    in this setting.

    WHO is collaborating with research and development
    partners to better understand the effectiveness and efficiency
    of nonmedical masks. WHO is also strongly encouraging
    countries that issue recommendations for the use of masks in
    healthy people in the community to conduct research on this
    critical topic. WHO will update its guidance when new
    evidence becomes available.


    That document was written over a month ago (April 6th), but I hope that adds some clarification to things. It leaves us with the CDC currently recommending the use of non-medical masks in public and the WHO with a neutral stance.

    Knowing that, a reasoned approach would drive us to consider non-medical mask wearing as a potential positive given the guidance we currently have. Instead, I've seen a bunch of claims akin to, "Well, I'm confused..." or "Fauci said a long time ago...". Almost inevitably, it's following up with a phrase like, "...so I'm gonna' do what I want" or platitudes regarding personal "freedoms". That kind of thinking is nothing more than addict-level rationalization from people who can't possibly live without doing what they want, when they want.

    I'm not saying that you're doing that, Bernie. Obviously, you're actually looking for info on subjects before making decisions (and posting). I appreciate that because Lord knows we could use a ton more of that right now.
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    The results of the MLB antibody test are finally in.

    https://theathletic.com/1763139/2020...had-the-virus/

    And for you that don't have a subscription to The Athletic, the gist of it is below



    Too bad Cincy opted out, one of only 3 teams
    Covid19 infection is exponential. 60 can infect hundreds of thousands.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Knowing that, a reasoned approach would drive us to consider non-medical mask wearing as a potential positive given the guidance we currently have.
    Maybe, but there's at least three caveats in this sentence.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    This is an early thought as Britain attempts to reduce restrictions:

    Coronavirus anxiety: How to cope with life after lockdown
    By Amelia Butterly
    BBC 100 Women

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52443108

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    "At the time of this incident, South Korea still had its six feet of separation guidelines in effect, even at bars." ...from redszone covid-19, part three thread yesterday.

    Seoul has reported 35 new cases in each of the last two days attributable to their bars in town.


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-he...KBN22N0CD?il=0
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...hem-avoid-them

    "It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.



    As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.



    There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, the majority are still increasing and reopening. As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained."
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    "At the time of this incident, South Korea still had its six feet of separation guidelines in effect, even at bars." ...from redszone covid-19, part three thread yesterday.

    Seoul has reported 35 new cases in each of the last two days attributable to their bars in town.


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-he...KBN22N0CD?il=0
    Suspicious.

    You left out this part of the article:

    Most of the new cases were linked to an outbreak at a number of Seoul nightclubs and bars, many of them catering to members of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (LGBTQ) community.

    That has raised complications for officials desperately trying to track those who might be infected in a nation where open homosexuality is often taboo and LGBTQ people still face discrimination, including job loss and hate speech.

    Authorities have tested 4,000 people who had patronised the night spots in the Itaewon neighbourhood, but were still trying to track down around 3,000 more.


    South Korean news sources also continue to report Kim Jong Un's death every two weeks.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...hem-avoid-them

    "It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.
    This is good, I hope people read it. You don't see much practical information around any of this these days.
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    T



    Too bad Cincy opted out, one of only 3 teams
    What's the reason?

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsfaithful View Post
    This is good, I hope people read it. You don't see much practical information around any of this these days.
    I have been thinking about this lately. Most models show a ramp up of cases with the easing of "stay at home" measures. I think the modelers will tell you that there are a lot of unknowns in the model that make it difficult to predict accurately.

    But in conversing with my wife this weekend, there is an acknowledgement that the people at risk, need to take more precautions. But if you do dive into a lot of the current numbers, nursing home deaths account for a large portion of the total numbers. What happens when to the virus as the at risk population diminishes? I don't mean this in any callous manner, more of unknowns with the virus. I do think the last hurdle to get completely over this virus (months away from now) is protecting the at risk class.

    For all those who are anti-masks, wear a damn mask. Wearing a mask "may" help the at risk people. Wearing a mask "may" hasten the return to normal. If wearing a piece of cloth allows for baseball to return faster, or allows for football to be played this fall, do it. Look no further than Germany who is starting up soccer in a week or two, or South Korea who is already playing baseball. Being stubborn may be delaying the return of the things you love.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Gack View Post
    What's the reason?
    It was setup as voluntary participation by the organization so who knows what drove the Cincy management not to play along.

    I just asked some people I know that work for the org if they were going to do the test when the study was first launched and they are the ones that told me Cincy wasn't participating
    Last edited by jup; 05-11-2020 at 10:54 AM.


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