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Thread: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

  1. #16
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...hem-avoid-them

    "It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.



    As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.



    There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, the majority are still increasing and reopening. As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained."
    Like the article, well written. Thanks for the post. But part of your post based on it is very misleading.

    So you say there are => very few states that demonstrate => but this doesn't account for the added testing that is going on now versus initially. More testing, more positive results. So to adjust for that, one of the important metrics is the positivity rate of testing. ie if your testing showed 100% of the tests given were positive (initially when you only tested the obviously sick patients) then you went to 80% positive (more tests, more marginally tested patients), then 60% and so on, you can have an obvious decreasing trend in positivity while the totally number of raw positive tests stays flat or goes up (100% of 100K tests is 100K, but then 80% of 150K tests is 120K and 60% of 200K tests is 120K) because you are doing an every increasing amount of testing. And not looking more closely at the numbers, especially in a more granular way is just down right misleading.

    Secondly, most states are making distinctions at the county level. So where many states release general state guidelines, they make distinctions at the county levels. So an entire state saying it is opening doesn't mean the amount of "opening" is the same everywhere within the state. So large metropolitan areas may dominate the states results (NY city) but the rest of the state isn't anything like that. Thus the restrictions on those other areas in many states are just not the same. But you lump the whole state into one size fits all. And that is very misleading.
    Last edited by jup; 05-11-2020 at 01:37 PM.


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  3. #17
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    So large metropolitan areas my dominate the states results (NY city) but the rest of the state isn't anything like that. Thus the restrictions on those other areas in many states are just not the same. But you lump the whole state into one size fits all. And that is very misleading.
    Rural America is never going to have raw numbers as large as the cities in their states, but it's a real mistake to think there's less danger. As people keep pointing out, you're more likely to only have a handful of employers in a small town and you're more likely to have insufficient hospital resources. Most small towns probably have more elderly individuals as a percentage of population as well. I get the sense a lot of people and a lot of areas think they are basically immune because of a lack of density, and I'm not sure that's correct.
    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
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  5. #18
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    There's definitely LESS danger in most rural areas (and in smaller cities). That's not the same as NO danger, of course, but there definitely should not be a one size fits all approach to dealing with this.

  6. #19
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Dr Amy predicted that with social distancing we'd have 10K new cases a day by late April:

    On Friday, Acton revealed that the latest projections call for Ohio's peak to include 10,000 new daily coronavirus cases. That peak is currently slated for late-April.
    Her wild and inaccurate predictions caused the Governor to overreact:

    With the current 10,000 new daily cases projection, DeWine said Ohio will need to double or even triple its hospital capacity in order to accommodate. Earlier this week, DeWine shared that the state is looking to convert hotel and dorm rooms across the state in order to increase hospital capacity.
    https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/he...8-4ddccccf2925

    We can't have this from a Health Director. You cannot be that far off. This is why I've called for her firing and why I don't believe a thing she says anymore. Why nobody in our wimpy press corp doesn't question her on it is beyond me.

    For any of you who've not been paying attention, we actually were getting about 400 new cases a day.

  7. #20
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Ohio averaged about 650 cases last week, partly because of testing increases, but testing is still pretty low in Ohio. Still a lot of unknowns around asymptomatic cases and infection rates, but if we are averaging 650 positive test cases, the actual number is probably between 2000-6000 a day.

  8. #21
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    There's definitely LESS danger in most rural areas (and in smaller cities).
    I'm really not trying to be contrarian but is that actually known to be true, or is it just an assumption because NYC has been through the ringer?

    I assume people in rural areas eat in restaurants, attend church, live in nursing homes, go to sporting events, work in factories, etc.

    Mass transit I guess is a vector, but there's like 6 cities in this country that have real mass transit.
    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
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  9. #22
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    Ohio averaged about 650 cases last week, partly because of testing increases, but testing is still pretty low in Ohio. Still a lot of unknowns around asymptomatic cases and infection rates, but if we are averaging 650 positive test cases, the actual number is probably between 2000-6000 a day.
    Hospital capacity wasn't stressed in the least

  10. #23
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Lol this briefing:

    With regard to child care:

    “BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!: No news.”
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  11. #24
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Hospital capacity wasn't stressed in the least
    OSU's ICU is still completely full.
    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

  12. #25
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Hospital capacity wasn't stressed in the least
    This was predicted at the beginning.

    Ohio shuts down to avoid major problems. Major problems are avoided because of the shutdown. People complain that we didn’t need the shutdown because there were no major problems.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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  14. #26
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsfaithful View Post
    I'm really not trying to be contrarian but is that actually known to be true, or is it just an assumption because NYC has been through the ringer?

    I assume people in rural areas eat in restaurants, attend church, live in nursing homes, go to sporting events, work in factories, etc.

    Mass transit I guess is a vector, but there's like 6 cities in this country that have real mass transit.
    Sure, but they don't walk on crowded streets, live on top of one another, use mass transit (as you pointed out) or generally spend as much time in close proximity to strangers. It's going to be much easier for them (in most situations) to maintain social distancing even when places are open, and one person in a less crowded area is much less likely to spread the virus to a BUNCH of people if they have it than someone in a more urban area.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post

    Ohio shuts down to avoid major problems. Major problems are avoided because of the shutdown. People complain that we didn’t need the shutdown because there were no major problems.
    That's a good meme, but it's not really what's happened. Ohio shuts down to avoid major problems. Projections say that major problems can barely be avoided even with a shutdown. Major problems are not even close to presenting (YAY!), but lockdown still persists in current form because.....reasons?

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  17. #28
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    That's a good meme, but it's not really what's happened. Ohio shuts down to avoid major problems. Projections say that major problems can barely be avoided even with a shutdown. Major problems are not even close to presenting (YAY!), but lockdown still persists in current form because.....reasons?
    The lock down doesn't exist in Ohio right now.

  18. #29
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    The lock down doesn't exist in Ohio right now.
    Restrictions have continued longer than necessary is the contention. "Lockdown" kind of lost all meaning in this anyway.

  19. #30
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

    Should be a focus on getting a safe, reliable treatment approved and available, that's the one thing that will afffect the trends and make people who are at-risk feel more safe in crowds later this year. Of course testing is important in a situational as well as an "as-needed" basis going forward.

    The media rarely reports on it or the progress, it's more important to them to profit from it than deliver actual news or provide anything hopeful. I thought hundreds of people were working on treatments around the world the last 2+ months, I'm surprised there's nothing imminent outside of "Resvadirir" or whatever it is - which seemed to have some pretty modest trial results.


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