COVID-19, Part 4 - what happens next?

[Boston Red]

Despite the controversy over Trump touting it, hydroxychloroquine has continued to show some potentially promising results as well. Neither is likely to be the panacea needed, though.

[BuckeyeRed27]

Should be a focus on getting a safe, reliable treatment approved and available, that's the one thing that will afffect the trends and make people who are at-risk feel more safe in crowds later this year. Of course testing is important in a situational as well as an "as-needed" basis going forward.

The media rarely reports on it or the progress, it's more important to them to profit from it than deliver actual news or provide anything hopeful. I thought hundreds of people were working on treatments around the world the last 2+ months, I'm surprised there's nothing imminent outside of "Resvadirir" or whatever it is - which seemed to have some pretty modest trial results.

Why slam the media here? It would be really irresponsible to report on drug trials that aren't complete or to give partial results. When there is news from completed trials like remdesivir, it'll get reported on.

[*BaseClogger*]

Sure, but they don't walk on crowded streets, live on top of one another, use mass transit (as you pointed out) or generally spend as much time in close proximity to strangers. It's going to be much easier for them (in most situations) to maintain social distancing even when places are open, and one person in a less crowded area is much less likely to spread the virus to a BUNCH of people if they have it than someone in a more urban area.

I don't think crowded streets or dense housing played *that* big of a factor for NY. I think it had more to do with it hitting them first because of their connection to Europe and having less time to prepare than just about anywhere else in the US.

A majority of the early environments that spiked transmission were nursing homes, office buildings, churches, birthday parties, etc and those are everywhere.

I'm still expecting another major wave or two of outbreak, focused in the parts of the country less populated with Yankees and Mets fans. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong and we've already been thru the worst...

[Redsfaithful]

Sure, but they don't walk on crowded streets, live on top of one another, use mass transit (as you pointed out) or generally spend as much time in close proximity to strangers. It's going to be much easier for them (in most situations) to maintain social distancing even when places are open, and one person in a less crowded area is much less likely to spread the virus to a BUNCH of people if they have it than someone in a more urban area.

Apparently Iowa has more cases than South Korea: https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/st...45185406111747

[Boston Red]

Apparently Iowa has more cases than South Korea: https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/st...45185406111747

OK, but does it have more cases than any state in the U.S. that includes a major city?

[paintmered]

I don't think crowded streets or dense housing played *that* big of a factor for NY. I think it had more to do with it hitting them first because of their connection to Europe and having less time to prepare than just about anywhere else in the US.

A majority of the early environments that spiked transmission were nursing homes, office buildings, churches, birthday parties, etc and those are everywhere.

I'm still expecting another major wave or two of outbreak, focused in the parts of the country less populated with Yankees and Mets fans. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong and we've already been thru the worst...

Add college towns to that list of future hotspot concerns. If there's a group of people that best exemplify the behaviors that best protect against this disease, college kids are the polar opposite of that group.

It's also why I consider college football to the best most at-risk sport for disruption this fall.

[*BaseClogger*]

If it was all about density, we would have more problems here in Chicago or places like Philadelphia, DC, Boston, etc. We have definitely been impacted, and I know there's no city in the US that compares to NY in density, but the difference between NY and other urban American cities is still startling...

[Boston Red]

I'm not sure anyone has claimed density is the ONLY factor. But when there's a virus spread by human to human contact and where staying six feet apart from other humans is the best way to avoid transmitting it...it would be pretty silly to think that number of humans per unit of space doesn't play a role in risk of transmission.

[Sea Ray]

OSU's ICU is still completely full.

That comment by itself doesn't mean much. I count 6 hospitals in Columbus that are part of OSU and 31 hospitals in Franklin county.

[paintmered]

That comment by itself doesn't mean much. I count 6 hospitals in Columbus that are part of OSU and 31 hospitals in Franklin county.

Consider how I could be privy to the information I shared, and then reflect on how it looks for you to explain to me how OSU's hospital system is organized.

[jup]

Despite the controversy over Trump touting it, hydroxychloroquine has continued to show some potentially promising results as well. Neither is likely to be the panacea needed, though.

Hydroxycloroquine early on in a Spanish study (https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202005.0057/v1) I posted the other day looks very helpful on the mortality front. But only early on. The invermectin/hydroxy trial that is starting up holds real promise as both have shown results seperately

https://www.jaad.org/article/S0190-9...557-0/fulltext

They will have somethings that slow this thing down by summers end. Not a cure or panacea, but anything that retards the movement towards overwhelming the hospital systems will definitely be a boost.

[Sea Ray]

Consider how I could be privy to the information I shared, and then reflect on how it looks for you to explain to me how OSU's hospital system is organized.

All I know about the information you posted are the 6 words you wrote. Any patients in the Columbus Convention Center yet?

[SteelSD]

OK, but does it have more cases than any state in the U.S. that includes a major city?

Both Sioux Falls, SD and the Sioux City, IA metro areas have been listed as top US hot spots in rates of residents testing positive. Sioux City is currently #1 (by a large margain) over the last two weeks with Sioux Falls dropping to *only* 10th in the nation over the same span.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...tbreak-us.html

[jup]

Both Sioux Falls, SD and the Sioux City, IA metro areas have been listed as top US hot spots in rates of residents testing positive. Sioux City is currently #1 (by a large margain) over the last two weeks with Sioux Falls dropping to *only* 10th in the nation over the same span.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...tbreak-us.html

Love how the times puts "flat or decreasing" in real light ink.

If that is the worst it gets in Sioux City SD or Sioux Falls IA (flat or decreasing) then I will take it any day ever day. 1000, and 2000 cases (respectivrely) over a 2 week period, with the way they have ramped up testing (especially with the meat packing stuff) this is a NON STARTER.

Numbers have to be looked at in context.

[Boston Red]

I wouldn't say those issues are "non-issues" or non-starters or whatever. There are certainly some places in less urban America where large number of people are in close proximity to each other for extended periods of time. Those places are a problem whether they are in Sioux City, IA or Jersey City, NJ. Those are the exception but not the rule, happily.