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Thread: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

  1. #1
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    At MLB Trade Rumors, they're running through a series wherein a hypothetical expansion draft would happen. 40-man roster only, so most prospects are safe already. This would be done at the end of the season, so free agents like DeSclafani and Bauer wouldn't count. You've got 15 players to protect.

    Who you got?

    Mine:

    Free Agents
    Anthony DeSclafani
    Trevor Bauer
    Pedro Strop

    Starting Pitchers: 4
    Luis Castillo
    Sonny Gray
    Wade Miley
    Tyler Mahle
    Comment: Need meant keeping Mahle over others, as two FA (and likely expense of SP FA) would cost too much. Contracts on Castillo and Gray are exceptional value. Might consider not protecting Miley is he goes south this season. Neither Lodolo nor Greene need to be protected as of yet.

    Relievers: 4
    Michael Lorenzen
    Amir Garrett
    Robert Stephenson
    Cody Reed
    Comment: Probably too many to protect, but the arms are cheap and the upside is big. Iglesias is left to be plucked, but I suspect contract would keep him safe.

    Outfielders: 4
    Shogo Akiyama
    Nick Senzel
    Nick Castellanos
    Jesse Winker
    Comment: Aristides Aquino is the most likely player to be chosen, IMO. Hurts to leave him unprotected, but others all offer similar/ better production. Should Castellanos declare himself a free agent (unlikely in this economic downturn/ depression), Aquino becomes an option.

    Infielders: 3
    Eugenio Suarez
    Tyler Stephenson
    Jose Garcia
    Comment: Moustakas and Votto are left unprotected-- I'm hoping their contracts are too large and relative ages keep them around. If not, there are other options already on the team. Too, that money could be spent on free agents. I had to protect both Stephenson and Garcia, as both profile to be on the 40-man by the time of this hypothetical draft. Jonathan India doesn't have to be protected, so that's good.


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  3. #2
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    At MLB Trade Rumors, they're running through a series wherein a hypothetical expansion draft would happen. 40-man roster only, so most prospects are safe already. This would be done at the end of the season, so free agents like DeSclafani and Bauer wouldn't count. You've got 15 players to protect.

    Who you got?

    Mine:

    Free Agents
    Anthony DeSclafani
    Trevor Bauer
    Pedro Strop

    Starting Pitchers: 4
    Luis Castillo
    Sonny Gray
    Wade Miley
    Tyler Mahle
    Comment: Need meant keeping Mahle over others, as two FA (and likely expense of SP FA) would cost too much. Contracts on Castillo and Gray are exceptional value. Might consider not protecting Miley is he goes south this season. Neither Lodolo nor Greene need to be protected as of yet.

    Relievers: 4
    Michael Lorenzen
    Amir Garrett
    Robert Stephenson
    Cody Reed
    Comment: Probably too many to protect, but the arms are cheap and the upside is big. Iglesias is left to be plucked, but I suspect contract would keep him safe.

    Outfielders: 4
    Shogo Akiyama
    Nick Senzel
    Nick Castellanos
    Jesse Winker
    Comment: Aristides Aquino is the most likely player to be chosen, IMO. Hurts to leave him unprotected, but others all offer similar/ better production. Should Castellanos declare himself a free agent (unlikely in this economic downturn/ depression), Aquino becomes an option.

    Infielders: 3
    Eugenio Suarez
    Tyler Stephenson
    Jose Garcia
    Comment: Moustakas and Votto are left unprotected-- I'm hoping their contracts are too large and relative ages keep them around. If not, there are other options already on the team. Too, that money could be spent on free agents. I had to protect both Stephenson and Garcia, as both profile to be on the 40-man by the time of this hypothetical draft. Jonathan India doesn't have to be protected, so that's good.
    I understand that the contract situation of Moustakas and Votto would make it unlikely that they would get taken and if the Reds had more solid players to protect, I could debate the merits of leaving them unprotected, but it would be a PR fiasco to lose a top 10 player in your team's history and one of your biggest FA signings ever to keep Wade Miley, Cody Reed or Michael Lorenzen.

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  5. #3
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    I believe that under the MLBtraderumors rules for their 15, Votto would have to be protected due to his no trade protection.

    On the original list I would protect Aquino and leave Reed vulnerable.


    Edit: rules below
    Detailed rules can be found here, but basically each team’s best prospects were not eligible for the draft. Still, about a quarter of the players chosen were minor leaguers. Also, players with no-trade clauses or ten-and-five rights had to be put on protected lists unless they waived those rights. And there would be no reason to protect players eligible for free agency.
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/...ion-draft.html

    Detailed rules linked above: https://www.nowhitting.com/index.php...d=28&Itemid=40
    Protected Players:
    From the eligible list, major league teams may protect 15 players prior to the draft. Ten/five players (players with ten years of major league service, five consecutive with the same team) and players with no-trade clauses in their contracts for the 1998 season must be on the protected list unless they waive those rights.
    Last edited by klw; 05-21-2020 at 03:34 PM.

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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    no way I protect reed over aquino reed has had infinite chances what has he done?

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    Member redsfanmia's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    Quote Originally Posted by Bruce Berenyi View Post
    no way I protect reed over aquino reed has had infinite chances what has he done?
    His grandmama dated the King, I’d keep him based on that.
    When I see the 2016 Reds, I see a 100 loss team and no direction.

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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    he is of npo value might was well protect lamb or finnegan the dross the reds got for cueto , maybe even throw in rookie davis from the chapman trade

  10. #7
    Member Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    At MLB Trade Rumors, they're running through a series wherein a hypothetical expansion draft would happen. 40-man roster only, so most prospects are safe already. This would be done at the end of the season, so free agents like DeSclafani and Bauer wouldn't count. You've got 15 players to protect.

    Who you got?

    .
    The hypothetical expansion draft by mlbtr was based on the 1997 rules....

    For the first round of the draft, each team protected a max of 15 eligible players from the rosters of it's entire organization—both their 40-man roster, plus all minor league affiliates.

    All players in an organization were eligible to be drafted, except those with no prior major league experience who had less than three years of minor league service if signed at age 19 or older, or had less than four years of service if signed at age 18 or younger.

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    Member camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    Here's mine:
    Code:
    *PROTECTED*
     C Tyler Stephenson
    1B Joey Votto (required)
    3B Eugenio Suarez
    SS Jose Garcia
    OF Aristides Aquino
    OF Nick Senzel
    OF Jesse Winker
    UT Josh Van Meter
    SP Luis Castillo
    SP Sonny Gray
    SP Tyler Mahle
    SP Tony Santillan
    RP Amir Garrett
    RP Mike Lorenzen
    RP Robert Stephenson
    
    *ADDED AFTER 1st ROUND*
    OF Stuart Fairchild
    SP Tejay Antone
    RP Lucas Sims
    
    *ADDED AFTER 2nd ROUND*
    SP Vladimir Gutierrez
    RP Joel Kuhnel
    RP Cody Reed
    
    *UNPROTECTED*
     C Tucker Barnett
    2B Mike Moustakas
    IF Alex Blandino
    OF Shogo Akiyama
    OF Nick Castellanos
    OF Phil Ervin
    OF T.J. Friedl
    OF Travis Jankowski
    OF Scott Schebler
    UT Kyle Farmer
    SP Wade Miley
    RP Jose De Leon
    RP Ryan Hendrix

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  13. #9
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    For me:

    top 15:

    1) C Tyler Stevenson
    2) 1b- Joey Votto
    3) SS- Jose Garcia
    4) 3b- Eugenio Suarez
    5) OF- Jessie Winker
    6) OF- Nick Senzel
    7) OF- Shogo Akiyama
    8) SP- Luis Castillo
    9) SP- Sonny Gray
    10) RP- Michael Lorenzen
    11) RP- Amir Garrett
    12) RP- Robert Stephenson
    13) RP- Tony Santillan
    14) SP- Tyler Mahle
    15) OF- Aristedes Aquino

    Next 3:

    1) RP- Lucas Sims
    2) INF- Josh Van Meter
    3) OF- Stuart Fairchild

    2nd 3:

    1) C- Tucker Barnhart
    2) RP- Vladimir Gutteriez
    3) RP- Cody Reed

  14. #10
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    Good lists. Sorry I screwed up the premise.

    On a related note, who is the most likely Red chosen by an expansion team?

    I'd guess Aristides Aquino or one of the young relievers, but Jose DeLeon might be a good choice.

    A sleeper could be Josh VanMeter. Profiles as a young, cheap, fairly productive, league average hitter with solid upside at 2B.

  15. #11
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post

    On a related note, who is the most likely Red chosen by an expansion team?
    I guess it depends on the list you are asking about.. But if someone like Shogo, Castillinos, Moustakas, or Barnhart was left unprotected, they would be snatched up in a heartbeat.

    An expansion team would love to have an average to above average starting player right off the bat, much more than a AAAA tweener like Cody Reed, etc. They are going to get plenty of marginal guys like that from drafting from other teams. If nothing else, an average starting player could probably be traded for a prospect that is better than what is generally available in an expansion draft.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  16. #12
    he/him *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I guess it depends on the list you are asking about.. But if someone like Shogo, Castillinos, Moustakas, or Barnhart was left unprotected, they would be snatched up in a heartbeat.

    An expansion team would love to have an average to above average starting player right off the bat, much more than a AAAA tweener like Cody Reed, etc. They are going to get plenty of marginal guys like that from drafting from other teams. If nothing else, an average starting player could probably be traded for a prospect that is better than what is generally available in an expansion draft.
    Most teams would leave players like Moustakas and Castellanos available because of just how valuable their young players with no service time are. Then the expansion teams--which would likely have somewhat limited budgets--would only be able to choose a few of the Moustakas/Castellanos types because of their contracts. The Reds would be banking on them choosing somebody else's average to above-average player being paid fairly. It's risky (and I'm not protecting Cody Reed either) but guys like Garcia and TySteve are too valuable...

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  18. #13
    Member camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    C Tucker Barnett - He's affordable, but he's a free agent after 2022 (or 2021 if his contract is bought out). Meanwhile, Tyler Stephenson is the future.
    2B Mike Moustakas - Not many teams are interested in guaranteeing him $52M over 3 years.
    OF Shogo Akiyama - At 33 years old, his tools won't be improving, and he'll still be owed a decent chunk of change.
    OF Nick Castellanos - If there's an expansion draft, I'd imagine he would be more likely to opt out of his contract. But if he doesn't, he would be drafted with an opt-out after the first year. If he doesn't opt out, it means he had a lackluster season. In that case, he would be guaranteed another $20M for the next season. It's just not a good contract to pick up.
    SP Wade Miley - It's either $9M for 1 year or $18M for 2 years. He's in his mid-30s and his career could sour quickly if he loses velocity. He's probably a solid rotation piece, but you have to protect the guys with more team control.

    edit:
    Looking back at my list, I'd leave Mike Lorenzen available since he'd be on his last year of team control.
    Last edited by camisadelgolf; 05-23-2020 at 03:35 PM.

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    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    my point is that we need Barnhart, Shogo, Moustakas, Lorenzen, Castellous etc right now and 2021.
    I hope the plan isn't to just punt 2021.

    A rebuilding team could afford losing them, I suppose. Although losing a good player for the sake of protecting a AAAA guy like Reed is still a debatable decision.

    I think a lot of you guys are too focused on salaries when making your lists. Sure a guy like Moustakas is making decent money, but that's because there's a limited number of players that are good as he is. As we've learned with the Reds, payflex is not always spent, and when it is, it isn't always spent wisely.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  21. #15
    he/him *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    my point is that we need Barnhart, Shogo, Moustakas, Lorenzen, Castellous etc right now and 2021.
    I hope the plan isn't to just punt 2021.

    A rebuilding team could afford losing them, I suppose. Although losing a good player for the sake of protecting a AAAA guy like Reed is still a debatable decision.

    I think a lot of you guys are too focused on salaries when making your lists. Sure a guy like Moustakas is making decent money, but that's because there's a limited number of players that are good as he is. As we've learned with the Reds, payflex is not always spent, and when it is, it isn't always spent wisely.
    We can't really discuss this with you until you post your list and we get a chance to scrutinize who you leave off.

    (for the record, my list would basically be camisa's list)

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