MLB Trade Rumors: 15 Guys to Protect

[REDREAD]

We can't really discuss this with you until you post your list and we get a chance to scrutinize who you leave off.

(for the record, my list would basically be camisa's list)

So I had a hard time making the last cut. If there was no DH, would have
probably exposed Winker, but since there's a DH, he's a lot more valuable.
So I had to expose Barnhart.. which is not too bad, as we have some depth at catcher,
and Barnhart is not an offensive force. Would have still liked to keep him though.
Yep, we will probably lose Mahle and Aquino, but we are still set up to compete.
I could see protecting Mahle over Miley if you are really high on Mahle, I am not that high on Mahle though.
Anyhow, losing Auqino and Mahle is no big loss.
A bigger loss would be losing someone like Castillanous. Castillanous is not replacable.
Mahle is replacable. Aquino is probably the most replacable "Front line" guy on the roster.



*PROTECTED*
C Tyler Stephenson
1B Joey Votto (required)
3B Eugenio Suarez
SS Jose Garcia
OF Nick Senzel
2B Mike Moustakas
SP Luis Castillo
SP Sonny Gray
OF Shogo Akiyama
OF Nick Castellanos
RP Amir Garrett
RP Mike Lorenzen
RP Robert Stephenson
Miley
Winker




Notable exposed (*not a complete list, just what I Can think of)
Aquino
Sims
Van Meter
Santillan
Reed
Ervin
Blandino
C Tucker Barnett

[*BaseClogger*]

Shogo and Miley are in their 30s and won't have much team control left at the end of the season (this hypothetical expansion draft is *after* the 2020 season). I think it's indefensible to protect them over Mahle and Aquino, who have so much team control left and might actually be better players now anyways.

I'm high on Van Meter so he would be a priority for me. Castellanos has an opt-out after this year, so theoretically you are protecting him after he has chosen to not opt-out, which almost assuredly means he had a disappointing season. If he puts up halfway decent numbers in 2020 he'll opt out.

I think Santillan is still valuable and should be protected, but I can understand why a person who values the present much higher than the future would leave him exposed for Moustakas...

[REDREAD]

Shogo and Miley are in their 30s and won't have much team control left at the end of the season (this hypothetical expansion draft is *after* the 2020 season). I think it's indefensible to protect them over Mahle and Aquino, who have so much team control left and might actually be better players now anyways.

I'm high on Van Meter so he would be a priority for me. Castellanos has an opt-out after this year, so theoretically you are protecting him after he has chosen to not opt-out, which almost assuredly means he had a disappointing season. If he puts up halfway decent numbers in 2020 he'll opt out.

I think Santillan is still valuable and should be protected, but I can understand why a person who values the present much higher than the future would leave him exposed for Moustakas...

So there's the source of our disagreement. I hear what you are saying, but my point of view is that we are trying to win now. If Shogo and Miley are not worth protecting, then why were they signed? If they aren't worth protecting, then it was a pretty big waste of cash.. Example.. if Mahle is protected over Miley, why was Miley signed?
I want to win now, I could honestly care less if Aquino becomes a star somewhere else if it means winning now. In contrast, if Shogo got picked, then we are trying to contend without a CF (I am assuming Shogo was signed to provide a competent CF player.. IF Shogo can not play CF better than everyone else on our roster, it was not a wise signing).

The odds of Aquino or Mahle becoming something special is pretty low in my opinion.
Plenty of time to rebuild later. Unfortunately, I fear this iteration of a contending team is going to be pretty short lived.. It could be only for 2020 if corrective action is not taken after this season.
Point is, I want to enjoy a good team. If that means losing 2 "B" prospects, I am ok with that.

[*BaseClogger*]

Shogo and Miley were signed to contribute in 2020. It's unlikely either contract contributes lots of excess value beyond what they are going to be paid because they're both such low upside players. They are a dime a dozen and signed for stability. This expansion draft is *after* the season, and unless they play really well they won't get the same contract next offseason because of their age (to say nothing of where the FA market might be next year). Those are the kind of players you take one decent season from and count your blessings. The Reds will have another offseason to find themselves a new mediocre CF and 5th starter...

[Bruce Berenyi]

16 home runs in a month is a "B" prospect wow,, who is an A prospect Babe Ruth

[camisadelgolf]

16 home runs in a month is a "B" prospect wow,, who is an A prospect Babe Ruth

Great question. Maybe Babe Ruth would be an A prospect.

[klw]

Great question. Maybe Babe Ruth would be an A prospect.

There have always been question's about George Hermann Ruth's body type and commitment to preparation. His lack of physicality will likely not age well. Future concerns over his position abound.

[REDREAD]

16 home runs in a month is a "B" prospect wow,, who is an A prospect Babe Ruth

Chris Stynes had a 394 OBP in 215 at bats, but he was a flash in the pan.
Aquino had 225 at bats last year, he's not a sure thing.
Given that we have a lot of OF depth now and are trying to compete, I would be willing to expose him.
Not saying that Aquino is destined to fail, but I'm not convinced he's the real deal.
Thus a "B" rating, which is pretty good actually for a guy that was basically cut loose and available to any club at the end of 2018.

[REDREAD]

Shogo and Miley were signed to contribute in 2020. It's unlikely either contract contributes lots of excess value beyond what they are going to be paid because they're both such low upside players. They are a dime a dozen and signed for stability. This expansion draft is *after* the season, and unless they play really well they won't get the same contract next offseason because of their age (to say nothing of where the FA market might be next year). Those are the kind of players you take one decent season from and count your blessings. The Reds will have another offseason to find themselves a new mediocre CF and 5th starter...

Well, I didn't realize this draft was after the 2020 season.
I thought it was right now.
If this is for after 2020, we really can't make our lists now.
We will know a lot more about the bubble guys after the season,so it would be good
to repeat this exercise then when we have more info.

But since we are forced to make the list now, I stand by my list. At the end of the season (if there is a season), maybe I will change my mind.

[camisadelgolf]

I could see Aquino being a league-average outfielder for a couple years. With enough luck, he might even earn an All-Star berth. But he's not the type of player I would sign to a long term extension as soon as he hits 30+ home runs in a season.

[Big Klu]

Chris Stynes had a 394 OBP in 215 at bats, but he was a flash in the pan.
Aquino had 225 at bats last year, he's not a sure thing.
Given that we have a lot of OF depth now and are trying to compete, I would be willing to expose him.
Not saying that Aquino is destined to fail, but I'm not convinced he's the real deal.
Thus a "B" rating, which is pretty good actually for a guy that was basically cut loose and available to any club at the end of 2018.

Not sure I would call Chris Stynes a "flash in the pan" for the Reds. He had a career .300 batting avg. with a .358 OBP in four seasons in Cincinnati. He was a solid 4th OF/utility player for the Reds.

[camisadelgolf]

Not sure I would call Chris Stynes a "flash in the pan" for the Reds. He had a career .300 batting avg. with a .358 OBP in four seasons in Cincinnati. He was a solid 4th OF/utility player for the Reds.

I agree with REDREAD's point, but yeah, there's got to be multiple better examples out there. Jon Nunnally was obtained in the same trade, and even Nunnally fits the bill better.

[REDREAD]

Not sure I would call Chris Stynes a "flash in the pan" for the Reds. He had a career .300 batting avg. with a .358 OBP in four seasons in Cincinnati. He was a solid 4th OF/utility player for the Reds.

Ok, I can go along with Chris Stynes being a solid 4th OF. Maybe "flash in the pan" was too harsh.
But of course, the Reds were desperate to get the fans excited, so they proclaimed Stynes a future star.
And yes, I fell for it. lol.
But I guess to the point, a potential solid 4th OF (which is a reasonable projection for Aquino) is not worth protecting.
I am making a big assumption that Shogo can play a respectable CF. If so, he has to be protected. Without him, the Reds don't have a legit CF. They can't play Winker or someone like that in CF and expect to contend in a normal season.. Yea, maybe if the season is only 50 games, they could get lucky and fake it without a real CF though.
Anyhow, plenty of OF in house now, protecting Aquino would not be a priority for me. If he leaves and has a great career, I could live with it.

[camisadelgolf]

I'm not personally excited about Aquino, but you'll notice that I protected him anyway. He has some tools and has already shown that he can make a big adjustment at least once, and if he can keep doing it, the Reds could have a star. If the 15th spot came down to him and Lorenzen, I'd pick Aquino every time despite my skepticism.

[Bruce Berenyi]

good point,, I am excited about him,, let me know the next time someone hits sixteen home runs on a month