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Thread: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

  1. #916
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    And yet, here is what Johns Hopkins has to say about mask wearing (spoiler: they say everyone should wear them)

    https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...u-need-to-know
    No I agree obviously with wearing masks, it still helps prevent the primary mode of transmission, human to human contact exchanging respiratory droplets. It just doesn’t seem to be airborne from most of the evidence we have.

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  4. #917
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    Cool. Hopefully they'll put it to rigorous testing and find out for sure.
    Just anecdotally, I feel like if it were airborne, there would be significantly more spread at grocery stores and places like that. It seems like if it were the case, most grocery workers would be infected at this point.

    Also household attack rate is something like 20-30% last I heard, that also wouldn’t make a ton of sense if that were the primary method of transmission.

  5. #918
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Most everyone survives food poisoning, we should allow restaurants to stop following FDA guidelines regarding sanitation and food handling
    Not quite the same thing as shooting something potentially dangerous into my veins.

  6. #919
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by NachoMan View Post
    It's a matter of case fatality rate vs. infection fatality rate. The CFR is the 4.6% number; the IFR is estimated based on serological surveys and appears to be in the 0.5-1% range. They are both bad and either way suggest we are headed towards a million+ deaths in the US if things keep going at this pace.

    The CFR is usually how things are measured (the oft-cited 0.1% fatality rate from the flu is the CFR, I don't think the flu IFR has really been measured much, but it would be much lower).
    According to this: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/...ing-the-point/

    The .1 % for flu is IFR.

    But flu comparisons aside, does that really change the fact that Covid is 99.8% survivable?

    And in nearly every nation, the average mortality age for Covid is close to the average mortality age period.

  7. #920
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    According to this: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/...ing-the-point/

    The .1 % for flu is IFR.

    But flu comparisons aside, does that really change the fact that Covid is 99.8% survivable?

    And in nearly every nation, the average mortality age for Covid is close to the average mortality age period.
    This is a pretty interesting article: https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23...age-race-14863

  8. #921
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    According to this: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/...ing-the-point/

    The .1 % for flu is IFR.

    But flu comparisons aside, does that really change the fact that Covid is 99.8% survivable?

    And in nearly every nation, the average mortality age for Covid is close to the average mortality age period.
    It is not 99.8% survivable. No study says that.

    But even the studies are guesstimates because we have done so little testing. We won’t know the true mortality rate for quite awhile, maybe years.

    But regardless, “survivable” is a terrible standard to use. Breast cancer has a 99% survivor rate. Should we do nothing to help those who have it? I have friends who has Covid. They said it was the worst two weeks of their lives. And we know little about the long term effects.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  9. #922
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Breast cancer has a 99% survivor rate. Should we do nothing to help those who have it?.
    Yes, we should do nothing to help people who have it.

  10. #923
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Not quite the same thing as shooting something potentially dangerous into my veins.
    Bad chicken is just like that though

  11. #924
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    According to this: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/...ing-the-point/

    The .1 % for flu is IFR.

    But flu comparisons aside, does that really change the fact that Covid is 99.8% survivable?

    And in nearly every nation, the average mortality age for Covid is close to the average mortality age period.
    Did you... actually read the article you just posted? The one where they outline the criticism of Ioannidis, and interview two experts that refute his claims?

    Regarding the flu IFR, he is obfuscating and yes, citing the CFR when he claims 0.1%. We don't really measure the IFR of flu. But here are some estimates by epidemiologists:

    A commonly cited statistic about seasonal flu is that it has a fatality rate of 0.1 percent, That, however, is a case fatality rate. The infection fatality rate for flu is perhaps only half that, Viboud said. Shaman estimated that it’s about one-quarter the case fatality rate.

  12. #925
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by NachoMan View Post
    Did you... actually read the article you just posted? The one where they outline the criticism of Ioannidis, and interview two experts that refute his claims?

    Of course I did. But Ionnidis was closer to right on his predictions, so I weigh him more heavily.

    What would you do?

    150K died from the Hong Kong flu of 1968. We had half the population and we were much, much younger. Woodstock was that year.

    BUT, we weren't all germ-obsessed ninnies constantly online.

  13. #926
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Bad chicken is just like that though
    I'm not volunteering to eat bad chicken.

  14. #927
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    For those trying to argue that Texas experiencing a problem:

    https://twitter.com/keithboykin/stat...146485760?s=21

    Texas Doctor: I got 10 calls yesterday for young people who will die if they don’t get ICU support, but I only have three beds left.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  15. #928
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    For those trying to argue that Texas experiencing a problem:

    https://twitter.com/keithboykin/stat...146485760?s=21

    Texas Doctor: I got 10 calls yesterday for young people who will die if they don’t get ICU support, but I only have three beds left.
    You could be right. But if you go into the actual data, and look at how many ICU beds are occupied by Covid patients, what you see is a story about hospitals busy doing other things and it isn't Covid overwhelming the ICU beds. Some is emergency work I am sure. The Lt. Governor has said many of the beds are pent up demand for other procedures not done because of the lock down and then some are elective. According to officials, to free up more ICU beds if needed, they will just have to delay some elective procedures.

    https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...and-occupancy/

    As of yesterday it looks like this

    Name:  Screenshot (6).jpg
Views: 113
Size:  275.6 KB

    And that is right in the heart of Houston, supposedly the hardest hit.

    Some how the numbers don't say the same thing as the hype.
    Last edited by jup; 07-06-2020 at 01:43 PM.

  16. #929
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    You could be right. But if you go into the actual data, and look at how many ICU beds are occupied by Covid patients, what you see is a story about hospitals busy doing other things and it isn't Covid overwhelming the ICU beds. Some is emergency work I am sure. The Lt. Governor has said many of the beds are pent up demand for other procedures not done because of the lock down and then some are elective. According to officials, to free up more ICU beds if needed, they will just have to delay some elective procedures.

    https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...and-occupancy/

    As of yesterday it looks like this

    Name:  Screenshot (6).jpg
Views: 113
Size:  275.6 KB

    And that is right in the heart of Houston, supposedly the hardest hit.

    Some how the numbers don't say the same thing as the hype.
    He is one of the last people I would trust giving information on Covid19.

    There is a lot of information being thrown out there now. But one thing that is striking is the shear number of new Covid cases, its alarming to say the least.

    One of the unfortunate things happening lately is most experts have been pushed away and the decisions have been placed in the politicians hands.

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    Revering4Blue (07-07-2020)

  18. #930
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    You could be right. But if you go into the actual data, and look at how many ICU beds are occupied by Covid patients, what you see is a story about hospitals busy doing other things and it isn't Covid overwhelming the ICU beds. Some is emergency work I am sure. The Lt. Governor has said many of the beds are pent up demand for other procedures not done because of the lock down and then some are elective. According to officials, to free up more ICU beds if needed, they will just have to delay some elective procedures.

    https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...and-occupancy/

    As of yesterday it looks like this

    Name:  Screenshot (6).jpg
Views: 113
Size:  275.6 KB

    And that is right in the heart of Houston, supposedly the hardest hit.

    Some how the numbers don't say the same thing as the hype.
    Yeah, that doctor must be a crisis actor and lying.
    What would you say.....ya do here?


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