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Thread: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

  1. #901
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    As we enter the fourth month of this pandemic, we are getting a clearer picture of its effects. And the more we learn, the more we understand how contagious it is, and how dangerous it is.

    We are learning it no longer is just affecting the old and the sick.
    We are learning that being casual about it will lead to more and more cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
    We are learning that the early projections, which seemed extreme, were quite accurate.
    We are learning that those that argued we could go about our normal lives without consequences were deadly wrong.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans


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  3. #902
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    Small point, but it's .2% not .02%. And obviously .2% is wrong for the population as a whole. But .2% could be right on for Rojo if he's young and healthy.
    Thanks, I corrected it. But he didn't say himself. He said of all people. And he's based on what he has admitted, he is neither young nor healthy.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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  4. #903
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Well, I'm so glad I'm livin' in the U.S.A
    Yes I'm so glad I'm livin' in the U.S.A
    Anything you want, we got it right here in the U.S.A
    It’s not the thing you fling, it’s the fling itself.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    Small point, but it's .2% not .02%. And obviously .2% is wrong for the population as a whole. But .2% could be right on for Rojo if he's young and healthy.
    If memory serves from the COVID thread in the political forum I believe Rojo is 50 years old, overweight, smokes a few packs a week, and drinks like my Uncle “DUI” Frank in his prime. Tip top shape.

    Sounds like a barrel of fun on a bachelors party weekend, tho.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I said "so far." I made it clear that it was based on what we know currently. That number may change, it probably will, but I purposefully posted it to counter the terribly incorrect number of 0.2%(corrected in edit). That number is absurdly wrong, and ignores the fact that millions of people will die if don't vaccinate as many people as possible.
    So your millions will die - is what?

    The US, the world ?

    Until the end of time, by the end of 2020 ?

    Some qualifiers on that would be appropriate, unless you are just making sure you have plenty of wiggle room when and if things don't turn out like your crystal ball says.

  9. #906
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    So your millions will die - is what?

    The US, the world ?

    Until the end of time, by the end of 2020 ?

    Some qualifiers on that would be appropriate, unless you are just making sure you have plenty of wiggle room when and if things don't turn out like your crystal ball says.
    First, I’m not predicting anything. I’m just applying basic math to the numbers we currently have.

    Second, It would be millions in the US alone, but that is only in the case that no one ever gets vaccinated. Pretty much every model projects this.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    First, I’m not predicting anything. I’m just applying basic math to the numbers we currently have.

    Second, It would be millions in the US alone, but that is only in the case that no one ever gets vaccinated. Pretty much every model projects this.
    Got it.

    But that is kind of like saying the world will come to an end. No one will be around to see if it really happened, so you can claim it all you want and never be wrong.

    There will be vaccines, prophylactics, and enhanced standard of care that not EVERYONE will refuse. So your statement will never be tested in reality. So like the world coming to an end - it means very little.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    First, I’m not predicting anything. I’m just applying basic math to the numbers we currently have.

    Second, It would be millions in the US alone, but that is only in the case that no one ever gets vaccinated. Pretty much every model projects this.
    PS - you have a long way to go to get to Millions. Even if you scrape by on the minimum (2 million), you need 20 times the deaths we have already seen.

  12. #909
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Got it.

    But that is kind of like saying the world will come to an end. No one will be around to see if it really happened, so you can claim it all you want and never be wrong.

    There will be vaccines, prophylactics, and enhanced standard of care that not EVERYONE will refuse. So your statement will never be tested in reality. So like the world coming to an end - it means very little.
    I agree it would never happen. I am confident we will get a vaccine and most people will take it.

    I was replying to a post that claimed that it wasn't important to vaccinated. I was just providing an argument that it was.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I agree it would never happen. I am confident we will get a vaccine and most people will take it.

    I was replying to a post that claimed that it wasn't important to vaccinated. I was just providing an argument that it was.
    Sounds reasonable. We will just leave it there then.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

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    I've been watching TX pretty closely on this whole virus outbreak. And using the link WrongVerb through up the other day makes it quick and very interesting.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/...l-states/texas

    They have clearly gotten there testing rate up to the point that they have stabilized the positivity, and it is clear from other information that they have been aggressively testing in some of the communities most likely to be hard hit.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06...esting-impact/

    Clearly there has been additional cases as well, but I am not sure all the hype is quite what is happening on the ground. The ICU bed stuff clearly isn't. As somewhere around 15% to 25% (depending on which hospital system and what geographic area you look at) of the beds are Covid while the others are taken up by delayed elective surgeries that didn't get done during the lockdown - cancer and the like. But listening to coverage, you would think the ICU is overflowing with Covid. One of the big hospital in the center of Houston (a metro area reportedly hit hardest)

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    TX may have turned the corner.
    Last edited by jup; 07-05-2020 at 02:48 PM.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    239 Experts With 1 Big Claim: The Coronavirus Is Airborne

    The coronavirus is finding new victims worldwide, in bars and restaurants, offices, markets and casinos, giving rise to frightening clusters of infection that increasingly confirm what many scientists have been saying for months: The virus lingers in the air indoors, infecting those nearby.

    If airborne transmission is a significant factor in the pandemic, especially in crowded spaces with poor ventilation, the consequences for containment will be significant. Masks may be needed indoors, even in socially-distant settings. Health care workers may need N95 masks that filter out even the smallest respiratory droplets as they care for coronavirus patients.

    Ventilation systems in schools, nursing homes, residences and businesses may need to minimize recirculating air and add powerful new filters. Ultraviolet lights may be needed to kill viral particles floating in tiny droplets indoors.

    The World Health Organization has long held that the coronavirus is spread primarily by large respiratory droplets that, once expelled by infected people in coughs and sneezes, fall quickly to the floor.

    Continue reading the main story
    But in an open letter to the W.H.O., 239 scientists in 32 countries have outlined the evidence showing that smaller particles can infect people, and are calling for the agency to revise its recommendations. The researchers plan to publish their letter in a scientific journal next week.
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Johns Hopkins says they’re full of ****

    https://ncrc.jhsph.edu/research/iden...d-of-covid-19/

    While masks most likely prevent community spread of COVID-19, this highly flawed paper provides no evidence on mask effectiveness at the population level. The study also provides no information to demonstrate that airborne transmission — let alone “long-range airborne transmission” — is the dominant form of COVID-19 transmission. The claims made in this paper are not supported, and the journal editors should strongly consider retraction.
    Last edited by Wonderful Monds; 07-05-2020 at 03:21 PM.
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    When it comes to crow, I'd like nothing more than to eat Dick's all season long and into the postseason.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Johns Hopkins says they’re full of ****

    https://ncrc.jhsph.edu/research/iden...d-of-covid-19/
    Cool. Hopefully they'll put it to rigorous testing and find out for sure.
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  19. #915
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Johns Hopkins says they’re full of ****

    https://ncrc.jhsph.edu/research/iden...d-of-covid-19/
    And yet, here is what Johns Hopkins has to say about mask wearing (spoiler: they say everyone should wear them)

    https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...u-need-to-know

    Should I wear a face mask or covering for coronavirus protection?
    Yes, if you are in a public place where you will encounter other people, you should wear a mask.
    Can a face mask prevent coronavirus from spreading?
    Face masks help prevent the spread of COVID-19.
    recent studies indicate a significant portion of people who have COVID-19 don’t show symptoms, and the virus can spread before they realize they are sick. This research — combined with the fact that the coronavirus can spread through close proximity to others, often by speaking, coughing or sneezing
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans


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