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Thread: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

  1. #811
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/t...ause-reopening

    Texas Governor Orders Pause On Reopening As COVID-19 Cases Surge
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023


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  3. #812
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    It’s almost as if we reopened too early based on no scientific evidence and simply because Americans were bored.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  5. #813
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    If the correct places pause now and the health care systems never get overrun (fingers crossed), it will have been the right move to open. Even with the spikes. Still too early to know if that is how it will play out, though.

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    This looks like a great resource. It fills a hole in our data to this point...

    Rate of Positive Tests in the US and States Over Time
    Thanks for the link - good stuff

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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    If the correct places pause now and the health care systems never get overrun (fingers crossed), it will have been the right move to open. Even with the spikes. Still too early to know if that is how it will play out, though.
    Yep, it is all about how they handle the cases that are turning up, and as you say, still just a little early to tell. But the expiration date on the grace period is getting short fast.

  10. #816
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    It’s almost as if we reopened too early based on no scientific evidence and simply because Americans were bored.
    It was almost like Texans were independent minded and didn't care about the virus. States that opened up based upon political pressure look a lot worse than states that opened up based upon scientific data. Who would have thunk it?

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  12. #817
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    It was almost like Texans were independent minded and didn't care about the virus. States that opened up based upon political pressure look a lot worse than states that opened up based upon scientific data. Who would have thunk it?
    Washington - not sure that early opening really applies there and they aren't great.

    Georgia doesn't look bad at all - very early opening.

    Some of the stuff out of TX makes me wonder about how wide spread (disbursed) it is around the state or centralized to say Dallas/Houston metros.

    All in all still a mixed bag.

    And these Northeastern states that have these dramatic declines weren't really in a whole lot different place within the last two weeks as some of the southern states are now. Just coming towards the same place from different directions and creating different narratives. Still need to see how it settles out. Remember the "disaster" wolf has cried many times already. Other than NY/NJ, the cries were largely off base

  13. #818
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    New model shows between 160000 to 214000 deaths by October 1. It states an additional 33000 lives will be saved by wearing masks.
    https://news.yahoo.com/forecast-180-...014130848.html

  14. #819
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    If the correct places pause now and the health care systems never get overrun (fingers crossed), it will have been the right move to open. Even with the spikes. Still too early to know if that is how it will play out, though.
    It’s too late. Changes you make now will be seen in 3-5 weeks from now and most the changes aren’t really changes, they are status quo.

    Opening always needed robust, fast, available testing. It required a tracing system everywhere. It required consistent logical messaging about what to do and how to do it. We have absolutely none of that, still, today, none of it.

    So here we are.

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  16. #820
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rdirtypirates View Post
    New model shows between 160000 to 214000 deaths by October 1. It states an additional 33000 lives will be saved by wearing masks.
    https://news.yahoo.com/forecast-180-...014130848.html
    What happened to all the people saying “the models were wrong!!!!”
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  17. #821
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    It’s too late. Changes you make now will be seen in 3-5 weeks from now and most the changes aren’t really changes, they are status quo.

    Opening always needed robust, fast, available testing. It required a tracing system everywhere. It required consistent logical messaging about what to do and how to do it. We have absolutely none of that, still, today, none of it.

    So here we are.
    We had one chance to get this right. And we blew it. It's like a wildfire at this point.

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  19. #822
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Larkin Fan View Post
    We had one chance to get this right. And we blew it. It's like a wildfire at this point.
    The depressing part is we didn't even try. Pence is giving the first COVID national briefing tomorrow morning, the first task force press conference in two months. It reminded me of one of the first task force press conferences in March when they trotted out all these CEOs of random companies, touted hundreds of testing sites in Walmart parking lots, and showcased a flow chart of a coronavirus testing web site that Google was supposedly going to create. Did any of that ever happen?
    "In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
    -Walt Whitman

  20. #823
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    You idiots ran Acton out on a rail for having the audacity of trying to save your dumbasses. You deserve this, you really do.

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  22. #824
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...m_npd_nn_tw_ma

    CDC says COVID-19 cases in U.S. may be 10 times higher than reported

    The true number of Americans who've been infected with COVID-19 may top 20 million, according to new estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    "Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections," Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, said on a call with reporters Thursday.

    The assessment comes from looking at blood samples across the country for the presence of antibodies to the virus. For every confirmed case of COVID-19, 10 more people had antibodies, Redfield said, referring to proteins in the blood that indicate whether a person's immune system has previously fought off the coronavirus.
    If this is accurate, then we owe Dr. Acton an apology. Her 100K guesstimate may not have been that far off.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  23. #825
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    Re: COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...m_npd_nn_tw_ma

    If this is accurate, then we owe Dr. Acton an apology. Her 100K guesstimate may not have been that far off.
    If someone wants to show their work and go backwards over 100 days to go from 48k positive tests so far today to get to “not far off” 100k positives on March 12, have at it. I know many positives have not been tested but if there were 100k on March 12, how many are there today (that have had it so far). And if so many people have had it, what is the infection fatality rate then?

    No apologies to Dr. Amy Acton on this one from me. Though I respect her I believe her to have been wrong here.

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