Sea Ray’s cat has gone missing from his posts. Did the cat just go on a vacation or is it gone for good?
I noticed the cat’s owner posted something pretty nasty on the NASCAR thread yesterday...
Sea Ray’s cat has gone missing from his posts. Did the cat just go on a vacation or is it gone for good?
I noticed the cat’s owner posted something pretty nasty on the NASCAR thread yesterday...
Considering how little testing there was being done on March 12, it's impossible for us to know what the actual count was back then. But logic and facts we know about other states and countries and how the virus has worked, tells us it is likely she wasn't as far off as we criticize her for.Originally Posted by kaldaniels
Feel free to not apologize, I don't think she really cares.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
At the time her claim was made, the virus was "supposedly" doubling every 6 to 7 days.
So lets take it slow here. Start with 100k, in 6 days 200k, 12 days 400k, 18 days 800k. Now you say, BUT WE mitigated. However that mitigation didn't take hold over night. So choose what number you want as your base 400K, 600K, 800K. Then just walk that thing out for all of April/May/June. Triple the doubling cycle to every fifteen days (for ease of argument) and you get to a million by the end of April pretty darn easy. 4 million by end of May. Then 16 million by the end of June. But Ohio only has 12 million people.
That is why it was so easy to spot the lack of veracity of the number so early on. The hospitals just didn't show the flood of people all that tells us they would. And the buck stops at the hospital door, because that is where sick people (not models that inform) actually end up.
Last edited by jup; 06-26-2020 at 12:48 AM.
alwaysawarrior (06-26-2020),Rdirtypirates (06-26-2020)
Ohio's case numbers stopped increasing on around April 24. They leveled off then and have stayed level, so there has been no "doubling" for months.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/ohio/
The hospital number is irrelevant because the point is that there are around 10X as many who are asymptomatic. The hospital numbers stay the same.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Well I tried to make it easy through some quick approximations, but now I guess i will use YOUR chart and the 10x the number of cases out there and see what I come up with.
So dragging my pointer over the blue line I find on May 1, 18,743 cases and then on May 31, 35553. Hmmmm, strange how when you double 18,743 you get 37,486, which is remarkably similar to the May 31st number of cases. So yes doubling was still going on, was taking about 30 days, which doesn't quite sound like months.
But lets go backwards a bit from May 1st and look for half as many cases. Doubling forward is half backwards.
May 1.....18743
Apr 17.....9107
Apr 6.......4450
Mar 31 ....2199
Mar 27 ....1137
Mar 24......564
Mar 21 .....247
Mar 19 .....119
Now lets apply your 10 fold figure. So if the KNOWN cases on May 1st was 18,743 and 10x that were asymptomatic, we get 187,430 total cases. Give Dr. Acton a few cases and call it 200K for ease. Now we have to cut that in half 7 times to get back to Mar 19th as the dates and case numbers from the chart show. It goes kind of like this
200K
100K
50K
25K
12K
6K
3K
1500
Somehow I am off by a factor of almost 100 to get to the 100K cases. And that is a week after Acton & Company was running the 100,000 cases out there.
Silly me, I need to go back to math class, clearly I didn't come up with the right answer.
I didn't see the post, but knowing the user it was probably something cringe worthy. With that being said everyone who wanted him gone can now argue amongst the small groupthink who have the same opinions. There is definitely a 100% bias on this board if you have differing views.
Last edited by Rdirtypirates; 06-26-2020 at 02:01 PM.
We have a policy of not publicly discussing suspensions, bans, etc., so I'll keep it very vague in saying he's not gone for good unless he chooses to be.
Rdirtypirates (06-26-2020)
The doubling was after a month, not the 5 or 15 days you were using, which throws your original math way off.
As I said before, testing was so terrible for so long, we can’t use the numbers we have. The reason why the numbers were increasing was because more testing was being done. In March we were doing almost no testing, which is why there weee almost no cases. Had we been testing in March who knows how many cases we would have found.
We can’t use the method you are using because it assumes that testing has been the same throughout, and you know that is completely wrong.
Last edited by 757690; 06-26-2020 at 10:40 AM.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
I have spelled this out before, but my wife is a Pediatric NP and our family came down with respiratory colds back in March ( I believe.) She was unable to get a test because they weren't available. Logically my entire family, two adults and three children could/did have the virus we just were unable get tested.
Fast forward to now, my wife had a couple of patients whose parents tested positive and she ordered a test for them. They both came up positive. Right now we are filling more holes in the data because of the ability to test. But, we are still at the point where unless you feel a need to get tested, you don't.
Co-founder of ReOpen Maryland says he has COVID-19, but won’t help contact tracing efforts
A co-founder of the ReOpen Maryland movement has said on social media that he tested positive for coronavirus this week but won’t work with public health officials trying to track the spread of the pandemic.
Tim Walters, a two-time Republican candidate for the General Assembly from Linthicum, said in a series of Facebook videos starting Tuesday that he has come down with COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.
“I was diagnosed yesterday at the ER with COVID-19 and here I am months after not wearing a mask at rallies, churches and so on and so it’s funny how capricious this thing is,” he said.
Walters helped organize ReOpen Maryland protests in Annapolis, on the Eastern Shore and elsewhere in Maryland to challenge state and local measures put in place by Gov. Larry Hogan to slow the spread of the virus.
Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)
Florida closes bars after 20,000 new cases in the past 3 days...
Texas closes bars and restricts restaurants and group meetings...Florida DBPR
@FloridaDBPR
Effective immediately, the Department of Business and Professional Regulation is suspending on premises consumption of alcohol at bars statewide.
8:13am · 26 Jun 202
Houston Chronicle
@HoustonChron
Gov. Abbott again closes all bars in Texas as COVID-19 surges http://bit.ly/3eBOA0z
8:27am · 26 Jun 2020
Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)
I thought that as of this week anyone in Ohio could get tested if they want to without a doctor's referral or symptoms?
They can, but why are you going to get tested unless there is a reason to?
I see what you mean now. Some will do it if they are caring for elderly or at risk people, but most people won't because they don't want to fork over a hundred bucks or more, plus it is only good for that particular moment. I think an antibody test would be much more popular.
The antibody tests are important, but the are riddled with inaccuracies.
All along I felt like there were far more people with Covid than even the estimates said. I think the numbers being thrown out today are fairly accurate in terms of the population of who has it as well as the fatality of the virus. I think it spread far more effectively than people though, but I think it was also far less deadly (by percentage) than once estimated.
Its a positive that if you want a test you can get a test. However, I just don't see a reason to get a test unless you are sick or someone you know you came in contact with tested positive. For the most part I think Ohio has done a good job in the battle against Corona. I think they opened up a little too early, but have been somewhat smart in doing so. Ohio has seen a rise lately, but I think when you look at the number, 7.63 positives/100,000 people, that is a pretty small number. Certain things can really skew that number. If you have one family come down with the virus, you are talking 4-5 positive tests. A nursing home in my area had an outbreak which led to it being called an outbreak zone or a trouble zone. The most important thing has to be getting the info and explaining the info.
I think we are in a hypersensitive state right now. Granted what we see in FL, TX, and AZ are very troubling, a lot of the country is in good shape, and taking the proper precautions. Its imperative that the data we receive is explained in the proper manner.
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