COVID-19, Part 5 - the beat goes on.

[RedTeamGo!]

I get it. I got takeout from Barrio in Lakewood the other day and it seemed like a fairly normal day, it was packed.

But there is still probably a limit on how many people it could spread to in a restaurant compared to a basketball game or even a wedding/funeral or a night club where people are moving around and much closer to each other.

At least Barrio put up dividers, but yeah, it’s packed. I walk or run by it every single day (My house is about 500 feet away haha, we should get a beer and/or taco once this is over). Since it has opened it has been packed inside and out constantly.

I dunno. I just feel like the majority of people are going to be constantly exposed now unless they literally don’t leave their home like Doug. Especially now with million and millions of people protesting right next to each other. I just feel like the quarantine is over, life is moving on regardless.

[Boston Red]

I dunno. I just feel like the majority of people are going to be constantly exposed now unless they literally don’t leave their home like Doug. Especially now with million and millions of people protesting right next to each other. I just feel like the quarantine is over, life is moving on regardless.

From the start I thought Memorial Day was about the furthest this could go. Ended (essentially) a few weeks earlier here. I certainly didn't expect there to be unrelated nationwide protests (and other mass gatherings) that would push things along, but that really seems to be the straw that broke the camel's back on people caring about quarantine/social distancing. But here we are. If there are no significant spikes in two weeks, we really should invite fans in stands at sporting events (if there aren't other reasons people cannot get to downtown stadiums in major cities).

[Sea Ray]

Gov. DeWine just announced that schools will reopen this Fall:

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said on Tuesday that students will return to school in the fall.

DeWine said the state will provide guidance on health measures schools can take, but that starting dates will be solely up to local school boards.

“I do fully intend to have school in the fall,” he said, adding that means having “kids back in the classroom.”

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/new...th/3122645001/

[Kingspoint]

Italian doctors claim coronavirus is weakening in Italy. Hope they're right, and that it is doing the same (or will shortly) here.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2370OQ

The weather is getting warmer. All viruses weaken every time they enter a new host as they have to adjust. The Fall surge when the weather cools is highly inevitable even though the mutated version (slightly) will be weaker than when it first invaded humans this Winter.

[Kingspoint]

Wasn’t a global pandemic and depression going on during those riots and with the worst person imaginable leading the country. We are living in unprecedented times.

Johnson was President November 22, 1963 – January 20, 1969. Never thought of him as a bad President.

[Sea Ray]

Johnson was President November 22, 1963 – January 20, 1969. Never thought of him as a bad President.

I thought he was one of our worst. Great Society and Vietnam . I'll leave it at that in this forum

[RedTeamGo!]

Johnson was President November 22, 1963 – January 20, 1969. Never thought of him as a bad President.

I was referring to the current POTUS

[Sea Ray]

Modeling continues to be screwed up:

An estimated 3,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 each day by June 1, according to internal Trump administration projections that The New York Times published Monday.

https://www.businessinsider.com/leak...-deaths-2020-5

We had less than 500 deaths yesterday from C19.

The guy who put this model together hemmed and hawed and never did come clean on his model and this makes it even worse

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...a-day-scenario

The modeling on this whole thing has been very flawed and overblown . As a result, government's response to it was also flawed and overblown

[BuckeyeRed27]

Modeling continues to be screwed up:



https://www.businessinsider.com/leak...-deaths-2020-5

We had less than 500 deaths yesterday from C19.

The guy who put this model together hemmed and hawed and never did come clean on his model and this makes it even worse
n
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...a-day-scenario

The modeling on this whole thing has been very flawed and overblown . As a result, government's response to it was also flawed and overblown

That was a draft model, not a forecast. It had a range of 750-15000 deaths per day. It's basically an input model that can be used to simulate different factors. The article even said that, which I guess you are calling "hemmed and hawed".

The modeling has generally been very good, unfortunately. Modeling accurately predicted the shape of curves like New York, Detroit and New Orleans that had huge spikes and huge pullbacks. Modeling has accurately predicted the low curves with the long plateau's like we have in Ohio and a lot of other places.

[757690]

Looks like there’s been an increase since last week. The first time in awhile. It could be because of Memorial Day and low reporting from it. Regardless, a bit of a red flag.

US numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today⁠—1,172
Yesterday—469
1 week ago (5/26)⁠—629

Newly reported cases
T⁠—22K
Y⁠—16K
5/26⁠⁠—16K

Newly reported tests
T—401K
Y—404K
5/26—302K

Positive test %
T—5%
Y—4%
5/26—5%

[kaldaniels]

Looks like there’s been an increase since last week. The first time in awhile. It could be because of Memorial Day and low reporting from it. Regardless, a bit of a red flag.

US numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today⁠—1,172
Yesterday—469
1 week ago (5/26)⁠—629

Newly reported cases
T⁠—22K
Y⁠—16K
5/26⁠⁠—16K

Newly reported tests
T—401K
Y—404K
5/26—302K

Positive test %
T—5%
Y—4%
5/26—5%

I don’t think this is cool. You literally copied and pasted Nate‘s tweet but deleted the parts that did not fit the narrative. Nate explained in the tweet that you copied and paste did that some of the numbers shown are probably due to the Memorial Day holiday. Which is why in the same tweet he also listed the two weeks ago numbers.

[SteelSD]

Kudos to Steel for knowing that article would be retracted before it happened.

Thank you. I actually activated the flux capacitor in my DeLorean and identified that the retraction had happened today before Sea Ray wrote his post yesterday.

The tough part was changing the time stamp on my last post to yesterday, but I bribed Boss and GIK last week to do that earlier today.

Imagine what I've already done three days from now.

[757690]

I don’t think this is cool. You literally copied and pasted Nate‘s tweet but deleted the parts that did not fit the narrative. Nate explained in the tweet that you copied and paste did that some of the numbers shown are probably due to the Memorial Day holiday. Which is why in the same tweet he also listed the two weeks ago numbers.

I did not delete anything. I did not copy this from Nate Silver. I got this from a friend. I actually noted that Memorial Day likely played a role in the numbers, because that seemed logical. If my friend did delete part of it, that is wrong, I agree. I will take that up with them.

My apologies for the unintentional incomplete data.

[North]

Vaccine paradox: Will 'flattening the curve' stymie the chances of developing a coronavirus vaccine quickly?
Fewer COVID-19 cases could slow the pace of research, experts say.


"In recent weeks, cities and states across the country have seen a steady decline of COVID-19 cases.

But even as many doctors breathe a quiet sigh of relief, those racing to develop a COVID-19 vaccine are growing increasingly worried this good news will stymie efforts to find a vaccine quickly.

Vaccines can only be studied in places where outbreaks are ongoing. That's because the studies themselves rely on volunteers getting exposed to the virus to prove the vaccine actually works.

Snuff out an outbreak, and the pace of research slows to a crawl.

.

But even as many doctors breathe a quiet sigh of relief, those racing to develop a COVID-19 vaccine are growing increasingly worried this good news will stymie efforts to find a vaccine quickly.

Vaccines can only be studied in places where outbreaks are ongoing. That's because the studies themselves rely on volunteers getting exposed to the virus to prove the vaccine actually works.

Snuff out an outbreak, and the pace of research slows to a crawl.

While the nation's top infectious disease doctor, Anthony Fauci, has optimistically estimated that a vaccine could be ready by January 2021, experts say this timeline could be pushed back if we see a dramatic drop off in new infections.

This will become increasingly important as we move out of the early safety studies -- which only include a small handful of healthy adults -- and into massive vaccination studies designed to determine effectiveness in large groups of people.

To have a vaccine by early 2021, "you'd have to do a trial where there were enough people in the placebo group who got sick," said Dr. Paul Offit, who co-invented the rotavirus vaccine and sits on the Food and Drug Administration's vaccine advisory committee. And, he said, "you would have to be doing it in a region or time when this virus is still causing disease."

"I've been worried for months that the standard way of doing a trial will take well into next year to get a result because of this tamping down of the virus," said Dr. Arthur Caplan, director of the Division of Medical Ethics. New York University Grossman School of Medicine."


https://abcnews.go.com/Health/vaccin...t_hero_bsq_hed

[BernieCarbo]

Ohio is kind of floundering at the moment. Terrible handling of nursing homes, and testing is way below what they projected. I listened to the briefing today, and it was less than inspiring. I think DeWine is really irritated at being 44th in testing per capita in the country.