Reds first round pick: Austin Hendrick OF, West Allegheny (PA)

[HokieRed]

I don't think the .800 matters much one way or the other. Hendrick has legitimate left-handed power and therefore will get a lot of rope. Moreover, if he does what he needs to do, cut the K rate, he'll easily go over .800 as his percentage of XB per H is well over 50%. On lollipop's previous point about his being a Pennsylvania cold-weather kid, I agree somewhat but I'm not sure that matters as much anymore as it once did as these kids play so much travel team baseball all over the country (often on nationalized squads) these days.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I don't think the .800 matters much one way or the other. Hendrick has legitimate left-handed power and therefore will get a lot of rope. Moreover, if he does what he needs to do, cut the K rate, he'll easily go over .800 as his percentage of XB per H is well over 50%. On lollipop's previous point about his being a Pennsylvania cold-weather kid, I agree somewhat but I'm not sure that matters as much anymore as it once did as these kids play so much travel team baseball all over the country (often on nationalized squads) these days.

What's intereting is that what Hendrick largely has to do-- expand what he's willing to swing at-- seems to be pretty easily done. Swing more. Will Benson did it last year to great effect, for example. His new-found aggressiveness saw a massive drop in K% and a rise in BA with very little drop in BB%. (Of course, that may be entirely luck-based.)

The issue is that Hendrick's probably got such a massive hole in his swing that swinging more will mean less success. Benson is the paragon of hope for Hendrick, honestly. And Hinds. and Cerda. And Matt McLain. And maybe Mat Nelson (though he looks like his power nearly completely vanished). That's easier said than done, of course, but all things considered, I think I'd much rather have a prospect who's too passive than too aggressive.

Is that the wrong way to look at it? If so, someone tell me where I'm wrong.

[Benihana]

Dodgers’ #10 and #15 prospects OPSed below .800 last year in the Midwest League (where Hendrick will most likely play this year. League OPS was .710. Hendrick will be playing at a younger age than that #10 Dodgers prospect was playing last year. Not sure why the .800 OPS should be trusted as a make or break threshold for Hendrick.

I don’t really care much about the Dodgers #10 or 15 prospect and don’t see how that’s remotely relevant to anything. The first thing Hendrick has to do is cut down on the strikeouts, like I said. Secondarily he has to show that he can master a level (let alone a low one) in his third full professional season, something he has yet to do.

Like I said, patience is encouraged and I’m hoping he can surprise this year. But let’s not pretend like he hasn’t been underwhelming so far. And since you mentioned prospect rankings, when you have a guy who was the 12th overall pick and isn’t considered a top 15 or 20 prospect in the system (nor does he even have any of the best tools in the system according to BA), that’s…not good.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Hendrick's 21. He's been league average or better across all three minor league spots so far. That's not "mastering" a level, but mastering a level isn't necessary, so we might want to pump the brakes on that expectation. Alexis Diaz, for example, hadn't mastered anything before moving on to the majors and dominating. Nor had Jonathan India, who won the Rookie of the Year. Tejay Antone was another with middling numbers with something that just clicked.

I'd be ecstatic if Hendrick stays somewhere around the 8-10% above league average he was this year in High A, but lowers his K rate to 25% and raises his BA to an acceptably low .250+. (Well, maybe not ecstatic, but not angry or dismissive either.) I'd certainly not claim he was a bust yet. He's the same age as a college junior and will probably spend some time this year in Chattanooga. Kid's got a long, long way to go, and he's not there now. But he's also still young for his level and has upside he hasn't touched.

[JCM11]

Next year is his age 22 season and he's played in all of 172 minor league games. I think you have to give him this year and next before giving up on him. I'd like to see the SO trend down to at least around one per game in 2023.

[lollipopcurve]

I don’t really care much about the Dodgers #10 or 15 prospect and don’t see how that’s remotely relevant to anything. The first thing Hendrick has to do is cut down on the strikeouts, like I said. Secondarily he has to show that he can master a level (let alone a low one) in his third full professional season, something he has yet to do.

Like I said, patience is encouraged and I’m hoping he can surprise this year. But let’s not pretend like he hasn’t been underwhelming so far. And since you mentioned prospect rankings, when you have a guy who was the 12th overall pick and isn’t considered a top 15 or 20 prospect in the system (nor does he even have any of the best tools in the system according to BA), that’s…not good.

It's always easy to dismiss draftees at the moment they're chosen and young prospects a couple years into their careers, simply because the majority of them don't become major leaguers, much less good ones. If you want to go ahead and throw out single-season hard numbers (the .800 OPS) as a kind of ultimatum for whether a prospect has a chance, I think you're assigning to yourself some kind of unique analytical insight unknown in the industry.

Not saying Hendrick hasn't struggled. Just pointing out he had a nice finish at Dayton and that he's young with not a whole lot of tread on the tires.
I don't think a mediocre year sinks him, nor do I think a good year guarantees anything. For me, the most significant numbers are his age and his draft position. He's young and he has some legitimate tools. Player development very much in progress.

It was interesting the Reds sent Hendrick, Hinds, Thompson and Allen down to the Dominican for a week this winter. Give that development a little extra push. Big picture, if 1 of these 4 guys ends up a starting outfielder for the major league team for several years, that's a win. 2 of them, a coup.

[Redhook]

Does anyone know if it’s Hendrick’s swing causing most of the strikeouts or is it his pitch recognition like Barrero? It could be a combo, but I’m curious.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Does anyone know if it’s Hendrick’s swing causing most of the strikeouts or is it his pitch recognition like Barrero? It could be a combo, but I’m curious.

From Fangraphs:

His swing is explosive but grooved, cutting through the middle of the zone without much variation to match pitch locations. We’re talking about a sub-60% contact rate here.

Fwiw, that seems to be Hinds' approach as well. His time in the AFL showed a massive chase rate on good breaking balls. Perhaps that's just small samples. We'll find out in AA this season.

Allan Cerda, otoh, has a decent chase percentage: he's just too passive and doesn't go with pitches on the outer third of the plate. (That's far easier, I suspect, to fix.)

According to Fangraphs, McLain seems to have a hole at his letters that largely causes his K's. He'd be a first-division starter by figuring that out.

Too, EDLC struggles with swinging through pitches in the zone and chasing some out of the zone.