Only playing NL and AL Central teams helps the Reds

[JFLegal]

the national league central division and the american league central division are two of the weakest divisions in baseball. and the reds will be playing all 60 games against teams from those divisions. avoid the tough teams in the east like the braves, nats and phillies, and avoid dreaded west coast trips (specifically playing against the loaded dodgers this year).

this is huge imo.

[OGB]

The real key may be which NLC team does the best cleaning up against the Pirates, Royals, and Tigers, who will most likely be 3 of the 5 worst teams in baseball

[DocRed]

Ya I mentioned this in another thread. None of the top 6 teams favored to win the WS are in the AL/NL Central and the Central divisions also have 3 of the worst 6 teams on that same list. Definitely helps our WC chances.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/ml...al-league-2020

[UPRedsFan]

the national league central division and the american league central division are two of the weakest divisions in baseball. and the reds will be playing all 60 games against teams from those divisions. avoid the tough teams in the east like the braves, nats and phillies, and avoid dreaded west coast trips (specifically playing against the loaded dodgers this year).

this is huge imo.

I'm not so sure. It's only an advantage for competition for the wildcard, not for the division since they all play the same schedule. But take a look at the ease of schedule. You figure everyone will beat up on the Pirates for 10 games each. Then the AL central serves up the Tigers and Royals for 8 more games against teams you'd expect to have losing records. So that's 18 "easy schedule" games.

Teams in the NL East get to beat up on the Marlins for 10, and then they get Orioles and Blue Jays for 8 more. I'm thinking Boston has pitching problems and no Mookie - this could be a down year there. I'm thinking the Twins, Indians, Whitesox are all likely to outplay the RedSox.

[JFLegal]

I'm not so sure. It's only an advantage for competition for the wildcard, not for the division since they all play the same schedule. But take a look at the ease of schedule. You figure everyone will beat up on the Pirates for 10 games each. Then the AL central serves up the Tigers and Royals for 8 more games against teams you'd expect to have losing records. So that's 18 "easy schedule" games.

Teams in the NL East get to beat up on the Marlins for 10, and then they get Orioles and Blue Jays for 8 more. I'm thinking Boston has pitching problems and no Mookie - this could be a down year there. I'm thinking the Twins, Indians, Whitesox are all likely to outplay the RedSox.

right, but even the advantage in making the wildcard is a nice advantage. it would be a one-game crapshoot. but if you win that game, then you have almost as good of a chance as anyone to win the world series.

and hell, i think the reds have the best roster in the nl central this year. they could very well be division champs. but i would take a wildcard.

[M2]

Is there some other NL Central? Because the one the Reds play in has been good for a long time. The Cardinals have 12 straight winning seasons. The Cubs have five. The Brewers have three. And the Reds are loaded up to take their shot.

Meanwhile, the Twins set an MLB record for HRs last season, the Indians win 90+ every season and the White Sox shelled out for players over the winter.

The Royals and Tigers stink, and the Pirates probably won't be good. Yet there's seven teams in that mix that think they've got a legit shot at making the postseason and doing some damage.

[M2]

Just to add, the East will have the Marlins and Oriole (which are as awful as the Royals and Tigers) plus the Blue Jays, which lost 95 last season. And six of the 10 teams in the West had losing records last season.

[Griffey012]

The NL Central is probably going to be the toughest division in baseball.

[Griffey012]

Ya I mentioned this in another thread. None of the top 6 teams favored to win the WS are in the AL/NL Central and the Central divisions also have 3 of the worst 6 teams on that same list. Definitely helps our WC chances.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/ml...al-league-2020

The path of least resistance plays into being favored as well.

[marcshoe]

Given the new social distancing rules and the all-central schedule, it's a good thing Clint Hurdle is gone.

[adkindo]

Caesars Sportsbook has the NL Central as....

31.5 Wins - Cincinnati Reds
31.5 Wins - Chicago Cubs
31.5 Wins - St. Louis Cardinals
30.5 Wins - Milwaukee Brewers
25.0 Wins - Pittsburgh Pirates

basically a 4 way coin toss...

If playoffs are traditional, they have....

NL East - Braves - 33 Wins
NL Central - Reds or Cubs or Cardinals - 31.5 Wins
NL West - Dodgers - 37 Wins
NL WC #1 - Nationals - 32.5 Wins
NL WC #2 - Mets - 32 Wins

AL East - Yankees - 36.5 Wins
AL Central - Twins - 34.5 Wins
AL West - Astros - 34.5 Wins
AL WC #1 - Rays - 34 Wins
AL WC #2 - Athletics - 33.5 Wins

https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/i...-win-totals-37

[DocRed]

I just calculated our SOS for 2020 based on 2019 records and considering 10 games vs each NLC team and 4 games against ALC teams. Our NLC opponents ave winning % in 2019 was .514 and ALC opponents .460. Adjusting for 10 games vs 4 games for NLC vs ALC games.... our average winning pct for our 2020 opponents will be .499% or just a shade below average. Was hoping it would be lower but oh well. Just looking at the ALC though I would guess that the Twins and Indians could be worse but the White Sox will be better. In the NLC I think the Brewers and Pirates could be worse and the Cubs will be better.

[DocRed]

Caesars Sportsbook has the NL Central as....

31.5 Wins - Cincinnati Reds
31.5 Wins - Chicago Cubs
31.5 Wins - St. Louis Cardinals
30.5 Wins - Milwaukee Brewers
25.0 Wins - Pittsburgh Pirates

https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/i...-win-totals-37

If you do the math then the projected 2020 winning percentages for the NLC compared to actual 2019 winning percentages are as follows..

31.5 Wins - Cincinnati Reds .525 vs .463 UP by 0.62
31.5 Wins - Chicago Cubs .525 vs .519 UP by 0.06
31.5 Wins - St. Louis Cardinals .525 vs .562 DOWN by .037
30.5 Wins - Milwaukee Brewers .508 vs .549 DOWN by .041
25.0 Wins - Pittsburgh Pirates .417 vs.426 DOWN by .09

Interesting that this projects all NLC teams to be worse except for us and the Cubs slightly. Or basically Reds better, Cardsinals and Brewers worse, Cubs and Pirates about the same.

[klw]

Any time the Reds do not have to play Oakland before October is a good thing.

[MikeS21]

I agree that the NL Central is NOT an easy division. You cannot go by W-L records because you have good teams who are beating up on each other. Yes, it's nice to get to play the Tigers, Royals, and Priates. But you also have to play the Cardinals, Indians, Brewers, and Cubs. None of those teams are going to lay down. And I'm thinking that the Twins and White Sox are not going to pull any punches either.

In a 60-game season stacked the way it is, I don't see the Reds finishing better than 3rd. A longer, normal season, I can see them pulling it out and finishing in first place in the division.