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Thread: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    What prospects, in your opinion, would be a part of the 60-man roster training somewhere 100 miles or less (Dayton or Louisville, most likely) from the parent club?

    What philosophy would you use in creating your 60-man roster?

    What surprises would you include? Any 2020 draftees?


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    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    I think prospects that are on the 60 (and not on 40) are: Garcia, Lodolo, Greene, India. Only 2020 signed prospects can attend and that would be Hendrick and Wainright. Both are HS guys. I guess if they want to get their first look at them....

    I would hope most of them are Colon types. Non-prospects who could fill in at the majors level if needed, do a workman-like job, and then be waived when not needed.

    The sites are in the Cincy area, BTW.
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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    Mine:

    Philosophy
    The entire 40-man roster will be protected. And used. That cuts my available spots to 20.
    I'm slightly worried about catcher health, so I'm going to have an extra guy on the taxi squad. (Besides, I need all the catchers I can use to catch the pitchers I protect/ develop.)
    Prospect development is key-- I'm developing with an eye toward to future, and the future starts next season. (Lots of holes coming up.)
    That said, I'll also need some depth beyond the 40-man roster that is major league ready. AAAA guys and NRI can nab a spot if they do something others can't or are adequate.
    The difficult choices begin at about roster spot 50. Upside trumps adequacy.

    40-Man Roster Cuts:
    Mark Payton (or Scott Schebler)
    Comment: I waffle about whether to keep Schebler or Payton. Schebler's career wRC+ is right at league average, but Payton costs less. Plus, Schebler really struggled last year. It would have been Jankowski, but he has 70 wheels and would therefore be the fifth outfielder and likely pinch runner in any extra inning game.

    Taxi Squad (30):
    AAAA and NRI Guys:
    Derek Dietrich
    Matt Davidson
    Francisco Pena (or Chris Okey)
    Brooks Raley
    Tyler Thornburg
    David Carpenter
    Jesse Biddle
    Comment: Seven AAAA guys who profile as league average bats or veteran arms. I like what Davidson and Dietrich can provide as insurance, but not enough to make them a part of the 40-man roster. Yet. Between them, they can provide help at four offensive spots plus DH. They're opposite handed too, which should help. The only veteran NRI arm I'm jettisoning is Sudden Sal Romano. He deserves a chance in KC or Baltimore. (I'd look to deal him before the season begins.) Nate Jones makes the 40-man roster in place of the waived OF spot.

    Top Prospects and Easy Calls
    Jose Garcia
    Hunter Greene
    Nick Lodolo
    Jonathan India
    Stuart Fairchild
    Comment: Stephenson and Santillan are already on the 40-man roster. (Stephenson would be the next catcher available, should one of Farmer, Casali, or Barnhart get injured/ sick, IMO, though I could see the argument for Pena.) This is the rest of the top prospects and possible top 100 guys who might, if you squint real hard, help the team this season (and definitely should next).

    This leaves 8 spots.

    The Last 8 In/ Long-Timers:
    Austin Hendricks
    Michael Siani
    Tyler Callihan
    Rece Hinds
    Lyon Richardson
    Packy Naughton
    Eric Yang
    Comment: These are purely developmental choices. Hendricks, Hinds, and Callihan need at-bats against good pitching. Hinds and Callihan also need to develop defensively. They'll certainly get that. Siani needs to work on his swing (and body) to develop more power, lest he be Billy Hamilton with only 70 speed. Naughton is polished and, should he add a couple mph from Driveline and Boddy, could be a Browning-esque starter. (Love his pitchability already.) Richardson had an underrated year in Dayton and could come on quickly. He needs innings. Yang is the seemingly odd choice here. I need another catcher and could easily switch he and Hendrik Clementina, but Yang (IMO) needs innings more. He also showed quite a bit with the bat. Either way, they need another catcher if they want to handle all those pitcher innings.

    Who Deserves to Be On This List?
    That leaves this year's draft class largely off. I could see arguments for any of them, honestly, as well as Mac Sceroler and Jacob Heatherly. Ivan Johnson should be under consideration too. All of the young international kids have been ignored, as well as Wendell Marrero (who mashed last season in limited ABs). Moving up the list, I could see an argument for Brandon Finnegan and TJ Friedl as emergency help and perhaps Reiver Sanmartin as a pitcher who'd give a different look in limited ABs.

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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    My strategy would be to go light on young or inexperienced minor league prospects for the 60. I would include the potentially usable group of Greene, Lodolo, India, Fairchild, Garcia. On the pitching side, I’d consider potentially usable minor league guys with experience, maybe Gutierrez, Naughton, Antone for the sixty.

    Coronavirus is not like a typical injury because it spreads. My fear would be a loss of a cluster of players. I’d want lots to choose from if that happens.

    Their glut of outfielders is a big help at OF/DH. In the IF I’d keep Colon on the 60, he has major league experience, and I’d try to fit five catchers, although Farmer may allow them to live with four.

    I could see them giving Hendrick a spot as a perk for a first draft choice, I wouldn’t, but I can see it happening.
    Last edited by Kc61; 06-27-2020 at 08:49 PM.

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    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    I think Antone is a lock for the 60.
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    Edd Roush (06-27-2020),Kc61 (06-27-2020)

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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    I think Antone is a lock for the 60.
    Agreed. The organization seems high on Antone.

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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    Surprised no one has mentioned Tyler Stephenson- Id think hed be a lock.

    I guess hes on the 40 man?
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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    Is there zero planned programming/coaching/practice this year for anyone left off the 60?
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Surprised no one has mentioned Tyler Stephenson- I‘d think he’d be a lock.

    I guess he’s on the 40 man?
    He is also.
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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    I think Antone is a lock for the 60.
    I think the entirety of the 40-man roster is a lock for the 60. The question is whether they deal or release players before then.

    There are 10 players capable of playing OF on the current 40-man roster. That is likely to be trimmed by at least one, perhaps two. (For comparison's sake, in 2018, they rostered 53 players over the course of the season, and only 10 of them were OF.) In 2012, they eight players played in the OF (and that includes four players who played on the grass for five games of less). In 2015, they rostered 11 over the course of a 160-game season.

    Were I Mark Payton and Scott Schebler, I'd be nervous. Payton must be offered back to Oakland, while Schebler is out of options. (So is Phil Ervin, though he hit very well last season in a platoon role.) They also would assume the same role on the major league team-- that of a part-time LH hitter with power and patience who can play all three OF spots. On a team with LH Shogo Akiyama, Jesse Winker, and (perhaps) Josh VanMeter on the team, that has less value. Especially because there's little chance either Nick Senzel or Nick Castellanos will be pinch hit for.

    Other spots on the 40-man roster are, IMO, more set.

    Cody Reed and Lucas Sims are out of options, but both have shown glimpses in their peripherals. I'd be shocked if either were released or dealt. Santillan is too talented to slip through waivers. They picked up Shafer and Smith in the off-season, while Hendrix and Kuhnel have upside enough to keep. They obviously like Antone too.

    In order to get Nate Jones, Tyler Thornburg, Jesse Biddle, and/or David Carpenter on the roster, they'll have to excise spots. (There's also Derek Dietrich to consider.)

    Were you to make me decide, I suspect Williams will trade or release both Payton and Schebler to add two more relief arms to the mix.

    I also think the rest of the 60-man roster (the last 20 spots) will be filled with prospects of all stripes and from all levels. A year of development (at any level) is key, and they didn't spend massive amounts of money to see these kids waste away.

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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    I think Payton and Schebler are possibilities. I think another is Jankowski, who was signed way before we got Castellanos, or Shogo or Payton. If he became available now, given the Reds situation I don't think the Reds would have signed him
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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    I think Payton and Schebler are possibilities. I think another is Jankowski, who was signed way before we got Castellanos, or Shogo or Payton. If he became available now, given the Reds situation I don't think the Reds would have signed him
    Agreed.

    $1 million is an expensive mistake, however, and Jankowksi is easily kept in lieu of another superfluous piece (Schebler, who costs as much). Jankowksi can be a fine fifth OF, CF defense caddy, and extra inning pinch runner. That has a specific value different from what either Payton or Schebler can provide. Perhaps it is less valuable, on average. (I don't know the numbers, nor do I have the computing capacity to figure it out.) Perhaps, in a 60-game season, it becomes more valuable.

    Either way, keeping both Schebler and Payton would seem more superfluous than one of them and Jankowksi.

    (Having said that, getting rid of two of the three or even all three is a defensible decision, I would suspect.)

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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    Do guys on the 40 man roster who don't maker the "Active Roster" need to be optioned? If out of options, do they need to pass through waivers? My understanding was that the season would open with a 30 man active roster, then cut to 28 and finally 26 at some point. I would think options and waiver rules would still apply to guys who don't make that cut. Anyone know? It could impact what they do here.
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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Do guys on the 40 man roster who don't maker the "Active Roster" need to be optioned? If out of options, do they need to pass through waivers? My understanding was that the season would open with a 30 man active roster, then cut to 28 and finally 26 at some point. I would think options and waiver rules would still apply to guys who don't make that cut. Anyone know? It could impact what they do here.
    Forty man roster rules still apply with minor changes (E.g., 45-day DL instead of 60-day).

    So I believe option and waiver rules all still apply.

    There’s a primer on roster and transaction rules by Mark Feinsand on MLB.com that was posted yesterday.

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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: Who's on the 60-Man Roster?

    The Schebler/Payton/Jankowski thing would play out a little different in my mind. Upside and control. We have lots of outfielders, but also lots of questions. Now and for the next couple years. Aquino could be an all star or a complete bust. He showed both last year. We all hope and expect Senzel will improve over last years numbers which were fairly mundane. Castellanos could (will?) opt out after this year or next. Shogo has never faced major league pitching and is already 32.

    And our top guys in the minors (Friedl and Fairchild) appear to be just good ballplayers and not big impact guys.

    So I would (in order) try and keep Payton and Schebler over Jankowski. Peak of Jankowski is a low power ( 8 lifetime homers), low average (.259 best), decent OBP (.332 best), good glove. Already out of options.

    Payton is dirt cheap, and if you can keep him on the roster for 60 days you control him with 3 options years. Who knows what they have in Payton? He busted out last year in PCL after a swing change. Was it a fluke season based on the PCL? Probably. But I'm taking a chance on a guy who hit 30 homers, with 1.000 OPS and .400 OBP who is dirt cheap and will be for next 4 years or so.

    Schebler's peak is higher than Jankowski. Based on demonstrated big power. The question is will he ever do it again? Was it all caused by injuries which are now fixed? He's also out of options and will start getting more expensive as he hits arb after this season.

    So to me Jankowski is the most expendable OF. I try to keep all the rest some way past this season to see how things play out. But that's just me.
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