Originally Posted by
Bourgeois Zee
Run prevention (ERA), home park (ERA+) and underlying stats (FIP and xFIP include your statistics and still find the Red relief unit decent. In ERA, the 2019 Red relief corps ranked 13th in baseball. In ERA+. In FIP, they were 12th. In xFIP, they ranked 8th. All three indicate a bullpen which was slightly above average, even with your cherry-picked poor stats from select bullpenners included.
You then move the goalpost from average to championship caliber, ignoring last season's National 'pen which was woeful. That Nat team, even in the World Series, did not have a good bullpen, but was able to cobble together enough effective innings to win the pennant.
You also seem to ignore free agent signings (Nate Jones, Tyler Thornburg, Pedro Strop, David Carpenter, and Jesse Biddle), trade acquisitions (Justin Shafer and Jose DeLeon), and healthy returnees (Cody Reed), not to mention the jettisoning of ineffective arms (Hernandez and Hughes, Wandy Peralta, Zach Duke) that torpedoed those overall statistics.
In short, those 2019 holdovers in the Red pen (Iglesias, Garrett, Stephenson, Lorenzen) are above average arms. Recent acquisitions provide fungible depth beyond the good arms. Health and upside may provide yet another quality option or two. Not only that, the piggyback system (and Bauer's apparent desire to pitch every four days) is tailor-made to provide even more relief help with Tyler Mahle.
Finally, let's talk about OF depth and the supposed deal for good bullpen arms. It requires answering multiple questions:
1. Who would other teams want that the Reds would be willing to trade?
2. Who would the Reds target that other teams would be willing to give up?
If we're talking about OF depth, the line begins with Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker. Both are young, cheap, and productive. Both are coming off lackluster seasons with less trade value than they might have had the season before. It makes little sense to deal either of them. Phil Ervin is a possibility. Which team could use him? What might they offer that would improve the Reds more than Ervin himself? In short, who needs a good short end of a platoon with a questionable glove?
I'm guessing Aristides Aquino is the main focus of your trade hypothesis. He's cheap and had a phenomenal August before a dreadful September. So the question becomes, who is in the Venn Diagram of having room in their OF to gamble on Aquino and has a championship-level relief arm to give up? It'd need to be a team who's not planning on competing themselves or one that has a bunch of good bullpen arms and a real need in the OF. Keep this in mind as we discuss the second part of the deal: the target.
The relief arm in question would need to be a difference-maker, as we're building a championship-level pen and have need of dominant arms. So let's focus on guys who are in the top 35 relief arms in one of the categories above: ERA, ERA+, FIP, and FIP+. Let's ignore age and salary for the nonce. Let's also ignore availability.
Here's a list of great arms from teams who might have a spot available in the OF and don't plan on competing. That leaves us a list of eight relievers:
Felipe Vazquez, PIT
Ken Giles, TOR
Brandon Workman, BOS
Reyes Moronta, SF
Ian Kennedy, KC
Trevor Gott, SF
Matt Barnes, BOS
Scott Barlow, KC
Now let's talk about OF fit.
Boston currently has Verdugo and Benintendi on its corners and a nearly untradeable Jackie Bradley in CF, so it's out.
The Royals have icon Alex Gordon in LF, Jorge Soler in RF, and All-Star Whit Merrifield in CF, plus break-out "star" Hunter Dozier and gamble Brett Phillips. They don't need Aquino enough to get rid any good arm they might have.
The Giants would seem like a good fit on paper, but they filled their corner OF needs with free agency. Hunter Pence, Mike Yastrzemski, and Alex Dickerson all enjoyed better 2019 seasons than did Aquino. He'd have as little opportunity on that team as he does on Cincinnati.
That leaves Toronto and Pittsburgh.
The Pirates have Brian Reynolds (very good rookie season) and Gregory Polanco on the corners and Guillermo Heredia behind them. There is a clear opportunity for Aquino to get corner OF or DH ABs. So that's good. Vazquez is an All-Star and one of the best relief arms in baseball, so he's a clear upgrade for the Red bullpen. Now, would Pittsburgh pull the deal on an Aquino for Vazquez deal? Unlikely, to say the least. They'd need something more than Aquino for him. Which would then affect the rest of the team. You've stated the Reds should deal from OF depth, so I assume others (prospects, starters, etc.) would be relatively off-limits.) Ervin wouldn't be enough either. Nor would Schebler. Jesse Winker is a possibility, but Pittsburgh would have to be convinced he was better than he's shown defensively and more than the large side of a platoon. Doubtful for Vazquez, who's cheap, productive, and dominant. Nick Senzel might. Would you be willing to trade Senzel? That's the type of return that might get Pittsburgh to pull the trigger.
Toronto has about 28 options for RF. Let's assume they want to add one more in Aquino. Ken Giles had a monster season last year and has years of success under his belt. He's expensive, so the asking price may be suppressed slightly too. Still, the talent/ production gap between the two players is too far. Aquino for Giles is an obvious no-go. So is Ervin. Winker may be possible; however, RF is tough sledding for Winker. He'll be exposed defensively. They'd need a pretty substantial sweetener. That leaves... Nick Senzel. He'd likely do it.
So the question isn't whether you deal from corner OF depth, Kc. It's whether you'll accept a Senzel for a championship level arm.
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