How valuable is Billy Hamilton?

[757690]

With a 30 man roster most if not all teams are going to carry guys who put up close to zero WAR. There just aren’t that many good players.

More importantly, due to the 60 game season, value as we currently figure it will be rather useless. The stats we use to determine value works out because there is a 162 game season, so the stats tend to average out over a full season. That won’t happen in a 60 game season.

We are going to see normal MVP candidates stuck in cold streaks and fringe players get on hot streaks, and that will be their seasons. We can’t expect the MVP’s BABIP to bring up his numbers long term, nor the Dietrich-esque player on a run to level off.

We are going to have to figure a players value almost game to game. It will be less of “this player provides on average X number of runs produced” and more or “this player helped win these specific games with these specific runs. ”

So a player like Hamilton will be especially valuable this season.

[M2]

They talked about this at length on the Effectively Wild podcast. They had somebody run all the numbers and I believe the net effect was something like 0.3 WAR. He's extremely valuable in this situation, but the reality is that it's simply not a situation that happens all that frequently.

I'd think WPA might be the stat that best captures it. That would factor in the leverage of the situation: super high leverage. Though it is possible the age-old bias that driving in runs is more valuable than scoring them has crept its way into that statistic.

[Ron Madden]

With a 30 man roster most if not all teams are going to carry guys who put up close to zero WAR. There just aren’t that many good players.

Teams can only have a 30 man roster for 2 weeks, then a 28 man roster for 2 weeks followed by a 26 man roster for the rest of the season.

I still don't think he is worth the roster spot.

[757690]

Teams can only have a 30 man roster for 2 weeks, then a 28 man roster for 2 weeks followed by a 26 man roster for the rest of the season.

I still don't think he is worth the roster spot.

So keep him the first month and see how it goes. I am guessing players #28, 29. 30 wont be more valuable.

[kaldaniels]

Would Billy on second alter the strategy to where it hurts the Reds? That wouldn’t be his fault per se but I could see it happening.

Sending hitters up to the plate with the mindset of “just make contact” rather than “swing normal and try to hit it hard”, or maybe Bell gets antsy and bunts or safety/suicide squeeze. I don’t know that those things hurt in every situation but I can just see the concept of Billy on base being over thought.

Plus looking at Tango’s chart from 2010-15 the runner on second with no outs will lead to on average, over a run scored that inning. Granted strikeouts are up but it’s a pretty safe assumption for me that usually that runner on second will score regardless. If Billy gets caught stealing third once in this situation all year with no outs, it just might negate his value.

It seems to be a feast or famine thing where only the true results will tell the tale.

[757690]

Would Billy on second alter the strategy to where it hurts the Reds? That wouldn’t be his fault per se but I could see it happening.

Sending hitters up to the plate with the mindset of “just make contact” rather than “swing normal and try to hit it hard”, or maybe Bell gets antsy and bunts or safety/suicide squeeze. I don’t know that those things hurt in every situation but I can just see the concept of Billy on base being over thought.

Plus looking at Tango’s chart from 2010-15 the runner on second with no outs will lead to on average, over a run scored that inning. Granted strikeouts are up but it’s a pretty safe assumption for me that usually that runner on second will score regardless. If Billy gets caught stealing third once in this situation all year with no outs, it just might negate his value.

It seems to be a feast or famine thing where only the true results will tell the tale.

I’m not going to buy into the “but what if the Reds are really stupid” argument. If they are that stupid, they aren’t winning many game either way.

[RedsManRick]

If that's 0.3WAR in a 60 game season then that's equivalent to 0.8WAR in a full season. Which is more than Barnhart, Senzel, Winker, Farmer, JVM, and Galvis had last year. Keep in mind the MVP this year is likely to only have a 3.0WAR this year.

Yep. It's not a lot in the big picture. But it's absolutely the difference between him being entirely replacement level and being worth a roster spot.

[kaldaniels]

I’m not going to buy into the “but what if the Reds are really stupid” argument. If they are that stupid, they aren’t winning many game either way.

So much has to go right for to it work. Are they following the minor league rules where the runner on second is the batter who made the final out of the last inning? Perhaps it will be an untimely substitution that has to be made. Remember the other team starts with a runner on second as well so for Billy to decisively make a difference the other team can’t score...or the Reds will have to pull it out down the road in later innings, which you would assume a 50% chance generally speaking after the 10th.

The stats guys should be able to tell us how much more often Billy scores from second compared to Joe Fastbaserunner (or Joe Averagebaserunner). That would be a good place to start. But even Billy scoring does not equal a win. One caught stealing or bad decision by anyone negates the whole mission here.

[kaldaniels]

Is that 0.3 WAR assuming the Reds send out a replacement level baserunner in his place? Cause if Nick Senzel (just a guess example) is worth 0.15 WAR on second in extras then Billy’s margin just shrunk a bit.

[757690]

So much has to go right for to it work. Are they following the minor league rules where the runner on second is the batter who made the final out of the last inning? Perhaps it will be an untimely substitution that has to be made. Remember the other team starts with a runner on second as well so for Billy to decisively make a difference the other team can’t score...or the Reds will have to pull it out down the road in later innings, which you would assume a 50% chance generally speaking after the 10th.

The stats guys should be able to tell us how much more often Billy scores from second compared to Joe Fastbaserunner (or Joe Averagebaserunner). That would be a good place to start. But even Billy scoring does not equal a win. One caught stealing or bad decision by anyone negates the whole mission here.

All good points.

There definitely needs to be an detailed analysis of whether Hamilton actually adds wins in that situation. It is far from definitive.