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Thread: If things go bad, can Bell pull the trigger?

  1. #1
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    If things go bad, can Bell pull the trigger?

    Excited for the season. If all goes well I think we'll be challenging for the NL Central title. But I wonder if things go off the rail a bit, if Bell has the nerve to make some moves.

    1. Trevor Bauer - We're hoping for big things from Bauer. But Bauer coughed up a furball for us last year with a 6.39 ERA. Bauer would seem to be as headstrong as anyone in the league. He wanted to pitch every 4th day. He wants to put up big numbers heading into Free Agency. If he is not pitching well, does Bell have the stones to pull him from rotation or have him on early hook status?

    2. Joey Votto - Joey's had two straight declining years as he hit ages 34 and 35. Now he enters his age 36 season only 2 months away from 37. And Joey normally struggles the first couple months. If Joey is struggling coming out of the gate, can Bell sit him (even against lefties)? I don't think Joey is Bauer like, but I don't think he'd take too kindly to sitting.

    Slightly lessor areas of concern

    Shogo - Everyone's excited about finally signing a Japanese player. And we gave him a moderately healthy 3 year deal. But he's never hit in the majors.

    Senzel - Was less then we hoped for last year, and got injured. Strikes me as kind of guy who would not be happy not playing every day.
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    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: If things go bad, can Bell pull the trigger?

    I personally hope that Bell does not have sole decision making power in making any drastic changes to PT for any of those guys.

    Is it possible that Bauer is the Reds sixth best starter this year? Perhaps, but this shortened season won't give us enough time to determine if his skills have really diminished or if it is random variation in a small sample.

    Votto may have declined as well, but I think the furthest the Reds should go is make him a platoon option at 1B with Davidson.

    I think the Reds need to give Shogo at least 200 PA (which is ultimately the entire season) to figure out if he can hit big league pitching.

    Same goes for Senzel. He has done too much in the minors to pull the plug on him this year.

  4. #3
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: If things go bad, can Bell pull the trigger?

    Usually you don't know what you've got in a given season until Memorial Day. That's where your hot starts begin to cool down and your slow starts begin to heat up. This year that's the whole season. What the Reds have is either going to work or it isn't. There is no Plan B. If you start grasping at straws, you're going to drop too far back to catch up. The best thing Bell can do is pick his team and give them his full vote of confidence. They either pick each other up and grind out the wins or they don't. Bell owes it to the organization, the fans and himself to let this team take their best shot. Worst thing any team could have this season is a manager who's constantly second-guessing.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: If things go bad, can Bell pull the trigger?

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    Excited for the season. If all goes well I think we'll be challenging for the NL Central title. But I wonder if things go off the rail a bit, if Bell has the nerve to make some moves.

    1. Trevor Bauer - We're hoping for big things from Bauer. But Bauer coughed up a furball for us last year with a 6.39 ERA. Bauer would seem to be as headstrong as anyone in the league. He wanted to pitch every 4th day. He wants to put up big numbers heading into Free Agency. If he is not pitching well, does Bell have the stones to pull him from rotation or have him on early hook status?

    2. Joey Votto - Joey's had two straight declining years as he hit ages 34 and 35. Now he enters his age 36 season only 2 months away from 37. And Joey normally struggles the first couple months. If Joey is struggling coming out of the gate, can Bell sit him (even against lefties)? I don't think Joey is Bauer like, but I don't think he'd take too kindly to sitting.

    Slightly lessor areas of concern

    Shogo - Everyone's excited about finally signing a Japanese player. And we gave him a moderately healthy 3 year deal. But he's never hit in the majors.

    Senzel - Was less then we hoped for last year, and got injured. Strikes me as kind of guy who would not be happy not playing every day.
    I agree with these concerns. Missing from this list is Iglesias, Strop and Garrett who were pretty bad last year and Sims and Reed who seem to be getting love as mainstays based on very little actual performance.

    I've been discussing Votto's decline for a couple years now with much of the board disagreeing, but IMO, he's the most sure thing on this list including the bullpen guys mentioned above. The good news, Castellanos and Moustakas added to Winker and Suarez means Votto can be a role player and the team no longer needs him to be "the man.". Same goes for Shogo. If those guys are just .750 OPS guys, the team still has enough offense. OTOH, if Bauer and the bullpen guys pitch like last year, I think the team will be in trouble.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: If things go bad, can Bell pull the trigger?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I agree with these concerns. Missing from this list is Iglesias, Strop and Garrett who were pretty bad last year and Sims and Reed who seem to be getting love as mainstays based on very little actual performance.

    I've been discussing Votto's decline for a couple years now with much of the board disagreeing, but IMO, he's the most sure thing on this list including the bullpen guys mentioned above. The good news, Castellanos and Moustakas added to Winker and Suarez means Votto can be a role player and the team no longer needs him to be "the man.". Same goes for Shogo. If those guys are just .750 OPS guys, the team still has enough offense. OTOH, if Bauer and the bullpen guys pitch like last year, I think the team will be in trouble.
    Closer is the one area where you can ride form a bit in a short sprint like this. If the Demon's Head isn't getting the job done, then let someone throw smoke in the 9th.
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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: If things go bad, can Bell pull the trigger?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I agree with these concerns. Missing from this list is Iglesias, Strop and Garrett who were pretty bad last year and Sims and Reed who seem to be getting love as mainstays based on very little actual performance.
    You guys keep saying Iglesias and Garrett were bad last season. They were not. Both were above average relievers by nearly any metric (ie, ERA, ERA+, FIP, x-FIP). Was Iglesias as good as he was the season prior? Nope. Then again, in 2018, he was among the 10-20 best relievers in baseball.

    Strop was bad last season, but outstanding the five or six years prior to that. Too, he was injured last year. A bum hamstring hampered him all season long. He's old too. That said, he's fourth in line in the 'pen behind Lorenzen, Iglesias, and Garrett. (And may be fifth or sixth, depending on Stephenson's maturation and Nate Jones' health.)

    Too, Reed and Sims have no options and have shown a propensity similar to Stephenson, Garrett, and Lorenzen-- an ability to K at high levels and limit H/IP. They can't be sent down without losing them. It makes sense to see what you have with both since you've got some solid relief arms ahead of them. (This is similar to how Stephenson was developed last season.)

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    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: If things go bad, can Bell pull the trigger?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I agree with these concerns. Missing from this list is Iglesias, Strop and Garrett who were pretty bad last year and Sims and Reed who seem to be getting love as mainstays based on very little actual performance.
    .
    Of those Iglesias is the only one that fits the original issue of Does Bell have the guts to make a move. In any of the regular relievers is less tan stellar, it's easy to adjust how you use them. But closer is a specific obvious role, and Iglesias would not like being moved.

    So add Iglesias to the list.
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    Re: If things go bad, can Bell pull the trigger?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    You guys keep saying Iglesias and Garrett were bad last season. They were not. Both were above average relievers by nearly any metric (ie, ERA, ERA+, FIP, x-FIP). Was Iglesias as good as he was the season prior? Nope. Then again, in 2018, he was among the 10-20 best relievers in baseball.

    Strop was bad last season, but outstanding the five or six years prior to that. Too, he was injured last year. A bum hamstring hampered him all season long. He's old too. That said, he's fourth in line in the 'pen behind Lorenzen, Iglesias, and Garrett. (And may be fifth or sixth, depending on Stephenson's maturation and Nate Jones' health.)

    Too, Reed and Sims have no options and have shown a propensity similar to Stephenson, Garrett, and Lorenzen-- an ability to K at high levels and limit H/IP. They can't be sent down without losing them. It makes sense to see what you have with both since you've got some solid relief arms ahead of them. (This is similar to how Stephenson was developed last season.)
    We're talking closer for a championship team. in the last two seasons Igleasias has pitched 139 innings and allowed 24 HR with an FIP over 4. That might be survivable for a back end starting pitcher, but it's terrible for a guy whose supposed to close out close games when he's on the mound. Looking at the Reds pen, I don't really see anyone else to do that job. Stephenson maybe, but that's a huge leap of faith. Certainly not Garrett or Strop.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: If things go bad, can Bell pull the trigger?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    We're talking closer for a championship team.
    Last year, in Washington: Sean Doolittle, 4.05 ERA, 1.7 H/9IP, more H than IP, FIP 4.25. World Series champion closer.
    Last year, in Cincinnati: Raisel Iglesias, 4.16 ERA, 1.6 HR/9IP, less H than IP, FIP 3.92.

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    Re: If things go bad, can Bell pull the trigger?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Last year, in Washington: Sean Doolittle, 4.05 ERA, 1.7 H/9IP, more H than IP, FIP 4.25. World Series champion closer.
    Last year, in Cincinnati: Raisel Iglesias, 4.16 ERA, 1.6 HR/9IP, less H than IP, FIP 3.92.
    The Rest of the reds team doesn't have teh talent that Washington team had to overcome it. They have a much better rotation and better line-up. The Reds have improved a lot, but any weak link will sink the ship.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  16. #11
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: If things go bad, can Bell pull the trigger?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Last year, in Washington: Sean Doolittle, 4.05 ERA, 1.7 H/9IP, more H than IP, FIP 4.25. World Series champion closer.
    Last year, in Cincinnati: Raisel Iglesias, 4.16 ERA, 1.6 HR/9IP, less H than IP, FIP 3.92.
    The Nats got by on the skin of their teeth with that bullpen, I would not count on that being a consistent World Series winning strategy, building a bullpen comparable to the worst one to ever win a championship.


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