Guess Reds’ Opening Day 30-man roster

[BillDoran]

Looks like I am solo on the Davidson train. Hopefully Bell/the FO also see how valuable of a bat he could be off the bench against lefties.

He's a career .226/.295/.435 hitter in 1,027 PA. He's a corner infielder that's never been known for his glove. He does hit lefties well, but I think you can find that skill in a more well-rounded package elsewhere.

[Edd Roush]

He's a career .226/.295/.435 hitter in 1,027 PA. He's a corner infielder that's never been known for his glove. He does hit lefties well, but I think you can find that skill in a more well-rounded package elsewhere.

Aquino's small sample is the only other guy I see as an option. I would not be too upset if Aquino gets the slot over Davidson, but it would be nice to have another lefty masher on the bench, particularly when the other manager may not be able to bring in a righty.

[DocRed]

I think Dietrich makes the team or at least taxi squad. He was just added to the 60 man and the reason he wasn't on it originally was he just confirmed he had Covid-19. He also said he had very few symptoms. With a healthy shoulder and him being a team leader of sorts it makes sense.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CCrADwIB...d=6b9jzv24utx2

edit:correction it was just confirmed that actually Covid-19 tested positive for Derek Dietrich! (stole that line from some guy on twitter)

[Kc61]

DD just added to 60 man...

https://twitter.com/Reds/status/1283...695994880?s=19

Now, DD is a guy Reds could use if he’s healthy and ready. Reds’ power is mostly from the right side. Moustakas the big exception. Votto, from a power perspective, who knows.

DD adds a powerful bench bat and has that OBP (HBP) skill.

If there was room, I’d like to see him get to the Reds at some point.

[RED VAN HOT]

With the three batter minimum and the extra inning rule, fewer pitchers will be needed. I doubt that there will be more than 14 on the 30 man roster. Further, the three batter minimum will afford more pinch hitting opportunities. Most bullpens have more RHP's, at least some of which are two pitch, FB/Slider pitchers. Thus, a bench heavy in LHH's would seem to be desirable. That makes the addition of DD at this late stage interesting.

[BillDoran]

Aquino's small sample is the only other guy I see as an option. I would not be too upset if Aquino gets the slot over Davidson, but it would be nice to have another lefty masher on the bench, particularly when the other manager may not be able to bring in a righty.

Ervin's an even better lefty masher. In 95 PA against lefties last year, his RC+ was 164 RC+; career he's 135. Obviously, there's value in having multiple guys that can crush southpaws, I just don't see Davidson doing enough to make him worth the team's while. I'd be surprised if he comes north (leaves his stuff in his GABP locker?), but what do I know.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Then trade him.

Aquino is 26. You cannot expect any prospect to have a better tryout stint. He undoubtedly has trade value.

Reds have lots of outfielders, mostly all signed for next year.

All you do by sending Aquino down is hurt his trade value. If you don’t believe in him, if he can’t crack a 30-man roster, then get some value for him in a trade.

I suspect they've tried.

I also suspect most of the league views him similarly to the Reds.

They don't trust last year's August, as good as it was.

[JayHawler]

Reds' 30-man roster
Rotation
Sonny Gray
Luis Castillo
Trevor Bauer
Wade Miley
Anthony DeSclafani

Bullpen
Raisel Iglesias
Michael Lorenzen
Amir Garrett
Cody Reed
Robert Stephenson
Lucas Sims
Pedro Strop
Tyler Mahle
Nate Jones**

Starting Lineup
C: Tucker Barnhart
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Mike Moustakas
3B: Eugenio Suarez
SS: Freddy Galvis
LF: Shogo Akiyama
CF: Nick Senzel
RF: Nick Castellanos
DH: Jesse Winker

Bench
Curt Casali
Kyle Farmer
Phil Ervin
Josh Van Meter*
Aristides Aquino**
Matt Davidson*

*cut when roster shrinks to 28
**cut when roster shrinks to 26

[Mitri]

I suspect they've tried.

I also suspect most of the league views him similarly to the Reds.

They don't trust last year's August, as good as it was.

The trade deadline could be really interesting this season, but I don't think we'll see much movement until close to the deadline, if the season gets that far.

[UPRedsFan]

Or Ervin.

IMO Reds have room for an OFer to use primarily against LHP. Either Ervin or Aquino.

I would evaluate both, make a judgment, and trade one.

BTW, Aquino had very good numbers against LHP in majors and minors last year, it’s not just Ervin’s domain.

The part of the roster that feels weak and unreliable is left handed relievers. Garrett and Reed are just so inconsistent. If a team out there needed a rh bat in the outfield, it sure would be nice to see what they could get for Ervin.

[Edd Roush]

Ervin's an even better lefty masher. In 95 PA against lefties last year, his RC+ was 164 RC+; career he's 135. Obviously, there's value in having multiple guys that can crush southpaws, I just don't see Davidson doing enough to make him worth the team's while. I'd be surprised if he comes north (leaves his stuff in his GABP locker?), but what do I know.

I like Ervin even better. Plenty of room for both of them to start the year.

[Kc61]

Reds' 30-man roster



Bench
Curt Casali
Kyle Farmer
Phil Ervin
Josh Van Meter*
Aristides Aquino**
Matt Davidson*

*cut when roster shrinks to 28
**cut when roster shrinks to 26

Agree with your pitching and starting position players. Maybe another innings eater instead of Jones, say Antone, but agree Jones seems to be getting good reviews.

But I wouldn’t go with this bench.

Too much emphasis on RH power bats. Little LH hitting, no emphasis on defense, speed or versatility. And weak in the infield, although not much in camp to fix that problem (maybe Blandino or DD).

Good exercise, demonstrates how Reds can improve the balance on their bench.

[Kc61]

I suspect they've tried.

I also suspect most of the league views him similarly to the Reds.

They don't trust last year's August, as good as it was.

Guessing Reds are reluctant to trade Aquino because of his potential upside. They don’t want another EE situation, trading a future top long ball hitter.

Still, if they aren’t going to use him at this stage, they might as well get what they can. My guess is they’ll keep him on roster, at least for the first part of the 2020 season.

[JaxRed]

I've hinted at my roster from time to time. Now let's lay it out. I try to think like a responsible GM. So a few rules I'll follow.

1) Don't wreck your 40 man roster for a 9 week season. So be very judicious about handing out 40 man slots.
2) Protect your upcoming talent. So you will not see Garcia, or Stephenson.
3. Don't add a guy to the 40 unless you plan on him being on the 26 all season long

I think they'll go with an 14 pitchers/ 16 hitters. The Winker/Ervin combo taking up two spots and both being outfielders almost forces you into taking an extra bat.

I don't think they see a need to shore up the bullpen or bench, so no trade unless it's someone we are going to lose, and then they are traded for someone who is not on the 40 man and will not go active.

Only 1 non-roster pitcher (Jones) makes the team. They've been evaluating the OF depth. Schebler and Payton have not distinguished themselves. Neither can be sent to minors this season. I think Schebler gets waived for Jones.

For me, all the roster agony came down to position spot 13 and whether to use Matt Davidson. If we've been against a righty and Winker started then you have Ervin, Casali and Farmer as righty pinch hitters and you might be reluctant to use the only guy that can play backup SS (Farmer). That's when Davidson comes in handy. If Votto can't hit lefties he'd also come in handy.

But keeping Davidson means cutting someone from the 40, and means you can't keep Payton (unless you can make a deal with Oakland). And he is very position limited. First and third only. And he has no options so once he is on the 40 you have to keep him.

If Davidson is not the 13th guy, all of a sudden you have massive roster flexibility as to the 13th guy. It could be Blandino who hits righty, and can play every infield position. You can have Van Meter who hits left and pays every infield position except SS and can play RF/LF also. Or you can have Jankowski who could play all 3 OF positions and is lefty. And they can be moved back and forth to the 'minors' as needed.

So what I would do. Pitching: The 5 starters and Iglesias, Lorenzen, Garrett, Reed, Stephenson, Sims, Strop, Jones. My 14th would be Mahle and he is optioned when they go to 28.
That's also what I think the Reds will do.

Hitters: Barnart/Casali, Votto, Moose, Galvis, Suarez, Senzel, Shogo, Castellanos, Winker/Ervin and Farmer. That's 12. I would not have Davidson (reluctantly) as my 13th. I would have as my other 4 guys, Payton, Jankowksi, Blandino and Van Meter. And they can trim them by one when they go to 28, and by 2 when they go to 26.

I do not expect the Reds to do that. I expect them to keep Davidson. Which means cutting Payton, and then still trimming one of Van Meter, Blandino or Jankowski at 28, and 2 more at 26.

That means barring injury I do not expect to see Dietrich on the big squad this year.

[Kc61]

Jankowski bats left handed.