Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

[BernieCarbo]

I AM curious what others want to see opened up that's not currently open. I'm been back at the office (with the most of the rest of the company) for 2 months. Our kids are going to school in person. Restaurants and bars are largely open (with some relatively minor restrictions). We had a delayed but generally full youth baseball season that included fans in the stands. All other sports (soccer, football, volleyball), etc. are in full swing (though very limited attendance allowed for high school sports). We've played in two cycles of pickleball leagues, and the leagues (and parks with courts around town) are as full as ever. Pools were open all summer (opened a week or so late). I've been to the dentist and the barber shop. My gym is open. Traffic appears to be almost completely back to normal.

I think we're probably an outlier in a lot of that (though I'm not sure), so it's interesting to me to hear what is NOT open in other places that people are missing.

The big one for me would be any music venue. I’m not talking about big concerts- i’m talking about small clubs that hold mainly 100 people or less, and there are dozens of them here. Right now, I only know of three that are offering music regularly at all, and that is only because they can have the music outside on large patios. As soon as it gets cold, it will all come to an end again. I met up with some friends of mine were playing last weekend, and they said their incomes are down 70%, but that has been very little help for anybody in the arts so far.

Also, sure, bars and restaurants are open at limited capacity, but if you want to go watch some football or baseball, you can’t even stay until the end of the game. And again, as soon as it gets cold, a lot of these places are going to close because of even more limited capacity.

Then, there are all kinds of small social activities that had been offered in the past that are no longer allowed such as art exhibits, wine tastings, beer tastings, food events, and anything else that was extremely popular socially but were important to businesses as well to attract new customers. I mean, I get it, and I’ve done fine without them, but I’m just pointing out that we aren’t really close to being back to normal yet.

Also, it’s been feast or famine for the economy. Ironically, this is going to be one of the best years I’ve had in 20 years since the big tech boom. Because this is a world economy, much of the manufacturing and logistics infrastructure comes from European and Asian companies, but they can’t travel here to support it anymore. I get a call nearly every day from some company in the US that is desperate for help because they can’t find anybody. I get it that if somebody used to be a server at a nice restaurant, that they probably want to go back to doing that, but in the meantime there’s tons of work out there. But anything related to service or entertainment is going to be in short supply for another year or so.

[RiverRat13]

Ohio's 7-day percent positive average is down to 3.5% - which is the lowest on record for the state.

[Boston Red]

Also, it’s been feast or famine for the economy. Ironically, this is going to be one of the best years I’ve had in 20 years since the big tech boom. Because this is a world economy, much of the manufacturing and logistics infrastructure comes from European and Asian companies, but they can’t travel here to support it anymore. I get a call nearly every day from some company in the US that is desperate for help because they can’t find anybody. I get it that if somebody used to be a server at a nice restaurant, that they probably want to go back to doing that, but in the meantime there’s tons of work out there. But anything related to service or entertainment is going to be in short supply for another year or so.

I'm not sure what your role in the manufacturing sector is, but do you have any opinion on whether the pandemic is going to accelerate adoption of additive manufacturing (3-D printing at greater scale)? It seems to me that people are going to be looking for any way possible to localize their supply chains, so there's a great opportunity there if the technology catches up to the need.

[M2]

I know what you mean, but just anecdotally speaking I’ve also seen quite a few bars and restaurants that I’ve felt safe enough to go to do some pretty good business lately, to the extent that they’re allowed to have people.

It might not do normal business, but most 20 and 30 somethings I know at this point don’t seem to feel super threatened by covid at this point. I feel like that demographic could keep quite a few establishments afloat for the time being.

Idk maybe I’m wrong, but I’m not sure why we can’t effectively separate the portion of the population who has very little risk from this away from those who would be in danger. I would take some creativity, but I don’t necessarily understand why it’s completely impossible.

You'd have to tell me how that separation would work. I've never lived or worked anywhere that was exclusively under-40. Cannot stress enough that as you move down the economic ladder and into Black and brown populations, generational separation becomes less common.

[Wonderful Monds]

You'd have to tell me how that separation would work. I've never lived or worked anywhere that was exclusively under-40. Cannot stress enough that as you move down the economic ladder and into Black and brown populations, generational separation becomes less common.

Yeah I mean that’s what I was suggesting earlier in the thread, basically a COVID unemployment fund or other form of assistance you could receive if you lived with someone considered at-risk or elderly.

[M2]

I think this varies by geography. I was sitting at a bar with a huge outdoor patio (as well as an indoor bar/restaurant) last Saturday night. For most of the night, I wasn't within 6 feet of anyone other than our waiter. But at about 11pm as I went inside to go to the bathroom, the bar was absolutely packed, and as I was walking out the whole place (even the outdoor area) was pretty frighteningly packed with more people pouring in. I'm far from the most conservative/careful person in this pandemic, but I was startled by the crowd.

I'm pretty sure that's not what we're looking to encourage, but I do think it's safe to say that your statement above is not absolute truth.

Location definitely matters, though it's sort of the Maine wedding problem (from my earlier post - and Maine ranks 49th in incidence rate). You can pack people indoors and it's fine, right up until the point where someone unknowingly walks COVID into the room. Then a month later people who weren't there start dying. So you can have places where the general perception of safety is higher (and it might even be safer at a given moment in time), but it's one localized outbreak away from people having to confront the consequences of their actions. It's like the great philosopher Mike Tyson once said, everybody's got a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

[Falls City Beer]

What do we know? We know it's airborne. We know it's easy to spread if you don't mask and distance. We know those factors make it particularly contagious indoors. We registerr tens of thousands of new cases every day, which means we're nowhere close to being safe to operate like normal. Yet even at that rate of transmission it would take us years to reach the 200 million+ cases needed to reach herd immunity. You've ignored all of that in your fact-free posturing.

One pack of knuckleheads in Maine went to a wedding last month and now people who didn't attend it are dying - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-1...nked-7-deaths/. We can multiply that or prevent it. You're callous and dumb, so you're down for all the death COVID can dish out. But given what we know, it is murder. It's going to kill hundreds of thousands of people who didn't have to die if we follow the FCB plan.

So what’s your plan? And don’t say some vague nonsense about “minimal levels.” Remember, you can’t change Congress. What’s your plan?

[Falls City Beer]

I’m a huge supporter of the arts and definitely am missing it.

But that is a tiny part of the economy, and can easily be sustained through government action.

More importantly, people in crowded places for long periods of time has been one of the biggest driver of Covid cases and hospitalizations. Opening them up would result in a bigger shutdown, hurting even more businesses.

Except nothing is currently being sustained by the federal government. So now what?

Any and all potential votes now delayed till after Election Day. 30 million unemployed. 55 million uninsured. The number of permanently unemployed crawling up daily.

[M2]

So what’s your plan? And don’t say some vague nonsense about “minimal levels.” Remember, you can’t change Congress. What’s your plan?

We've been over this multiple times. There's only one right answer: cut down the transmission paths for the disease to knock it well below rapid spread levels (probably below a .67 Rt), open schools first (and give them the testing/tracing they need to catch potential outbreaks), compensate those who can't return to work, keep the economy liquid. Nothing changes until we do that. We're just various levels of screwed. In every scenario that's not that hundreds of thousands more people die, working people go broke, small businesses shutter and we get mass evictions. It doesn't matter if people around these parts don't like the number 4. The answer to 2 + 2 is 4.

[Falls City Beer]

We've been over this multiple times. There's only one right answer: cut down the transmission paths for the disease to knock it well below rapid spread levels (probably below a .67 Rt), open schools first (and give them the testing/tracing they need to catch potential outbreaks), compensate those who can't return to work, keep the economy liquid. Nothing changes until we do that. We're just various levels of screwed. In every scenario that's not that hundreds of thousands more people die, working people go broke, small businesses shutter and we get mass evictions. It doesn't matter if people around these parts don't like the number 4. The answer to 2 + 2 is 4.

In what universe are we able to compensate those who can’t work, nimrod?

Stop with this D&D fantasy world you’ve concocted.

[M2]

In what universe are we able to compensate those who can’t work, nimrod?

Stop with this D&D fantasy world you’ve concocted.

So your answer is 2 + 2 = Elvis.

[Falls City Beer]

So your answer is 2 + 2 = Elvis.

My answer is keep granny quarantined and treat every job now as if it were essential. Because it is.

[M2]

My answer is keep granny quarantined and treat every job now as if it were essential. Because it is.

Your answer is at least another 500,000 dead in the next six months with the economy still deep in recession, the working class getting wrecked and supply chains in major jeopardy. You're a moron.

[Wonderful Monds]

Your answer is at least another 500,000 dead in the next six months with the economy still deep in recession, the working class getting wrecked and supply chains in major jeopardy. You're a moron.

But why does it have to be like that though? Why couldn’t you pay at risk people or people who live with the at risk to stay home?

[dougdirt]

But why does it have to be like that though? Why couldn’t you pay at risk people or people who live with the at risk to stay home?

We can. We choose not to.