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Thread: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

  1. #1
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Starting the next thread on this topic that I am so sick of.

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    Boss-Hog (07-21-2020),jup (07-22-2020)


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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Iím gonna ask a question and Iím just looking for a factual answer as Iíve seen the numbers questioned.

    When it comes to hospitalizations and deaths - are we getting numbers for hosp/deaths attributed to COVID or is it hosp/deaths that have been found to be positive for COVID? Iíd be interested in both sets of numbers.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I’m gonna ask a question and I’m just looking for a factual answer as I’ve seen the numbers questioned.

    When it comes to hospitalizations and deaths - are we getting numbers for hosp/deaths attributed to COVID or is it hosp/deaths that have been found to be positive for COVID? I’d be interested in both sets of numbers.
    I think it depends on the state.

    I know early on, there were several corners bucking the system, because they were told that any deaths that tested positive for Covid, were to be reported as a Covid death and they simply did not agree. So the early death totals were clearly deaths that occurred and tested positive for Covid.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Click image for larger version. 

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    For all the gloom and doom that was AZ on this board, sure looks like they turned it around and quick.

    The early markers in Texas turned the corner about 10 to 14 days ago. Should be looking pretty similar a couple weeks from now

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking View Post
    Starting the next thread on this topic that I am so sick of.
    Glad to have the thread back, was going to start it myself if someone else didn't jump in. Thanks for getting it going

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
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    For all the gloom and doom that was AZ on this board, sure looks like they turned it around and quick.

    The early markers in Texas turned the corner about 10 to 14 days ago. Should be looking pretty similar a couple weeks from now
    Can you link to things when you post them? The COVID Tracking project shows over 130 deaths in AZ for the last date updated. (Which would literally be off your chart shown)

    https://covidtracking.com/data/state/arizona

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

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    The topic of this thread is what we will be talking about today which is the topic of COVID-19 that Iím talking about right now.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Can you link to things when you post them? The COVID Tracking project shows over 130 deaths in AZ for the last date updated. (Which would literally be off your chart shown)

    https://covidtracking.com/data/state/arizona
    https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/e...ards/index.php

    So Covid tracker could be accurate, but my guess is they get their information from the state itself. And that link is to the Arizona Department of Health Services website for Covid tracking. I usually go to the horses mouth when I want to look at something.

    Sorry, missed a link there (since there are two sources) since I first posted it for you. Here is the other one

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
    Last edited by jup; 07-22-2020 at 01:48 AM.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Have been watching Tx for awhile. Can't say they things will go exactly the way AZ did, but it could happen.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Looking pretty similar. About 6 weeks from onset in increased positivity, ramping up to stabilization of positivity in testing. About a month of ramping up to peak hospitalization. Lets hope Tx shows the same strong downward trend. I kind of suspect theirs will fall slower given the population differences between the two states.

    And here is the Texas website I use (once again the State of Texas official website)

    https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...b11b9eaef6101f
    Last edited by jup; 07-22-2020 at 01:53 AM.

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/e...ards/index.php

    So Covid tracker could be accurate, but my guess is they get their information from the state itself. And that link is to the Arizona Department of Health Services website for Covid tracking. I usually go to the horses mouth when I want to look at something.

    Sorry, missed a link there (since there are two sources) since I first posted it for you. Here is the other one

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
    I actually think above the death graph you posted it (blurred) references the 134 deaths in the last day.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I actually think above the death graph you posted it (blurred) references the 134 deaths in the last day.
    Reading on their website, I see something about a particular one day spike as they were changing something in their reporting systems. Could be the 134 you are referencing and what I see as reported for yesterday in the box that was part of my post

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    So the numbers I'm looking at show Arizona with 3500 new cases and 134 deaths on 7-21-2020. Texas with 9,992 new cases and 118 deaths the same day.

    Why does this indicate they have a handle on it?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    So the numbers I'm looking at show Arizona with 3500 new cases and 134 deaths on 7-21-2020. Texas with 9,992 new cases and 118 deaths the same day.

    Why does this indicate they have a handle on it?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Looks like a weekend reporting spike. If you click on the 7 day average chart, it does kind of show their trajectory heading downwards. For Arizona anyway, Texas looks like maybe they’ve kind of plateaued or something.
    Last edited by Wonderful Monds; 07-22-2020 at 09:44 AM.
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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    So the numbers I'm looking at show Arizona with 3500 new cases and 134 deaths on 7-21-2020. Texas with 9,992 new cases and 118 deaths the same day.

    Why does this indicate they have a handle on it?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Positivity rates stabilized (stopped going up steeply, kind of plateaued) about 21 days ago. That is usually the first sign. Leading indicator
    Last edited by jup; 07-22-2020 at 09:58 AM.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Positivity rates stabilized (stopped going up steeply, kind of plateaued) about 14 days ago. That is usually the first sign. Leading indicator
    Looks like Phoenix instituted masking requirements on June 22nd, and other populous cities around the same time. It seems reasonable that positive case growth rate would reduce starting 1-2 weeks after requiring masks and assuming that most people comply with the order.
    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

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    Kingspoint (07-22-2020)


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