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Thread: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

  1. #61
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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    1207 deaths so far today in the US.
    That's 24 per state. Is there a point where we've "flattened the curve"?


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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    That's 24 per state. Is there a point where we've "flattened the curve"?
    Sure we had early on in this thing when the projections were revised down. Then everyone declared victory and stopped doing the things that helped us do it. Once things opened up, a new rise in cases was inevitable. 510 of those deaths are from Texas, California and Florida. Remember when hot weather was going to stop this thing cold?

    Time to stop all the theories. Limit contacts, keep distance, wear protective covering to limit droplets into the air and wash your hands. For all the other stuff that might happen down the road, it's all we got right now. Diseases spread from person to person. Limit those contacts and the curve will be flattened.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post

    Time to stop all the theories. Limit contacts, keep distance, wear protective covering to limit droplets into the air and wash your hands.
    In those states?

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    There are some of you in CA so feel free to chime in.

    LA county has 3x the population as SD county. (LA county is more dense of course)

    But LA country has ~7-8 times the amount of cases and deaths.

    So as much as we like to point the finger federally and stately (Trump and Newsom) have local LA leaders botched things compared to SD?

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    In those states?
    Everywhere. We're a mobile economy and a mobile nation. These things travel. There was a time when cases were zero and now they are everywhere. Isn't that proof enough? There are other bad states. I was just pointing out the biggest ones.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    There are some of you in CA so feel free to chime in.

    LA county has 3x the population as SD county. (LA county is more dense of course)

    But LA country has ~7-8 times the amount of cases and deaths.

    So as much as we like to point the finger federally and stately (Trump and Newsom) have local LA leaders botched things compared to SD?
    Not a Beach Boy, but is it possible that more people are traveling into LA each day and the bigger more busy transportation hubs are there (LAX for example). I wonder if during the typical day the number of people in LA are way more than three times the number in SD. I don't really know. Just throwing it out there.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    There was a time when cases were zero and now they are everywhere. Isn't that proof enough?
    No. If those three state are disproportionately high, that means a bunch of states are even below 24. So even if they're at zero, we need to lockdown?

    Flatten the curve was about giving our healthcare system some time to prepare, but by your logic we're in permanent lockdown because of pandemic pre-crime.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    I tend to agree with the theory that the issue in the south is that people have moved indoors out of the heat, which generally means you're closer to other people and breathing the same air. Once one person acquires the virus, the entire household will have it soon too. Then there's the fact that the south mostly avoided widespread infections during the first wave like we saw in NY/NJ, which means there's a lot more "kindling". Add in people taking vacations again from around the country and that's not a great mix.

    I think the biggest problem going forward is people just stopped caring once others started breaking the guidelines, saw the mass protests, etc. Can't tell you how many people I know that barely left their house for a couple months, only to give up and go back to their daily lives.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopdaddy67 View Post
    I tend to agree with the theory that the issue in the south is that people have moved indoors out of the heat, which generally means you're closer to other people and breathing the same air. Once one person acquires the virus, the entire household will have it soon too.
    Maybe. I'd always heard that the reason cold and flu was so virulent in the winter months was because we were all inside so much. That's why shelter-in-place struck me as non-sensical.

    Half the deaths so far have come from four states: NY, NJ, CT and MA. The fact that you don't hear that a lot points to the political pollution of C-19.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Maybe. I'd always heard that the reason cold and flu was so virulent in the winter months was because we were all inside so much. That's why shelter-in-place struck me as non-sensical.

    Half the deaths so far have come from four states: NY, NJ, CT and MA. The fact that you don't hear that a lot points to the political pollution of C-19.
    Many flu strains struggle to survive in the summer months. The fact that this virus spread like it did in some of the Southeast Asian countries suggests it isn't impacted in the same way.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Not a Beach Boy, but is it possible that more people are traveling into LA each day and the bigger more busy transportation hubs are there (LAX for example). I wonder if during the typical day the number of people in LA are way more than three times the number in SD. I don't really know. Just throwing it out there.
    LAX is the biggest reason for sure, normally around 1500 flights a day. 63 million passages a year. Less now, but even half of that is huge.

    But on top of that, SD is a military town, much older, family orientated. LA is Hollywood. Full of young creative types, extroverts, rule breakers. Two completely different cities.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    LAX is the biggest reason for sure, normally around 1500 flights a day. 63 million passages a year. Less now, but even half of that is huge.

    But on top of that, SD is a military town, much older, family orientated. LA is Hollywood. Full of young creative types, extroverts, rule breakers. Two completely different cities.
    Also, if you don't make 150K annually, you can't afford a home in San Diego. LA's average income is much lower. Lower income people tend to lead riskier lives for many reasons, socially and economically and others.

    - - - Updated - - -

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-he...KCN24N2FO?il=0


    Among the few states seeing a drop in infections was Arizona, another recent hotspot which saw new infections fall 13 percent last week. Hospitalizations in the state have steadily trended downward after peaking on July 13. Arizona Governor Doug Ducey, a Republican, was encouraged by those trends, his office said in a written statement, but cautioned that it was not time for the public to let down its guard. "We need to continue doing the things we know make a difference: wearing a mask, physically distancing and staying home as much as possible,” Ducey’s office said in the statement.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    This is for those who see misleading opinions about when there will be a potential vaccine. To believe that there will be anything for the masses before March of next year is pure insanity at the highest level.

    Here is a panel of experts' opinions on what is happening to this point around the world via reuters interviews:

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-he...-idUKKCN24O03B

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - As the global race for a COVID-19 vaccine heats up, Reuters invited a group of healthcare experts to answer questions as part of our #AskReuters Twitter chat series.

    Digital special projects editor Lauren Young asked participants which vaccine candidates show the most promise, and what to expect in terms of prevention, safety and vaccine roll out.

    Below are the edited answers.

    “The early trial results of several vaccines, that is the results of Phase 1 and/or Phase 2 trials, have been very promising. We should definitely ‘believe’ these results, while acknowledging that they do not prove the vaccine is effective.

    These early phase trials address safety and whether the vaccine elicits a good immune response. The good news is that we have several vaccines that have or are moving forward into Phase 3 trials, the phase needed to prove it ‘works’ for licensing.”

    — Aubree Gordon, associate professor of epidemiology at University of Michigan School of Public Health

    “Hard to draw any firm conclusions from Phase 1 and 2 data and press releases. AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine has animal data. I’m confident we’ll get a COVID-19 vaccine, just not sure which candidate(s) will make it into people’s arms.”

    — Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security

    “We can have faith in several potential vaccines because they’re built off other successful efforts. Oxford/AstraZeneca, some (National Institute of Health) and one in China are all promising. But here’s what makes me most worried: global competition instead of collaboration is harming. In this pandemic, we need to quickly realize there are better ways of doing this.”

    — Matthew Kavanagh, assistant professor of global health and visiting professor of Law at Georgetown University; director of global health policy & politics initiative at O’Neill Institute

    “The “mad rush” to be first to market should NOT compromise the science in any way. We have very stringent scientific principles for scientific studies and these should not be compromised ... Ethics is of the utmost importance in any scientific study.”

    — Dr. Krutika Kuppalli, emerging leader in biosecurity fellow at Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security

    “We have vaccine candidates coming to Phase 3 trials within seven months of knowing the genetic sequence of the virus. This is what can happen when public, academic & private entities come together with a single focus. When united, we can accomplish so much more!”

    — Infectious Diseases Society of America
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  16. #74
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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    It's important to read ALL OF THE WORDS in the article above, and to not cherry-pick the words that you like to see to fit your desires.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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    Re: Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Also, if you don't make 150K annually, you can't afford a home in San Diego. LA's average income is much lower. Lower income people tend to lead riskier lives for many reasons, socially and economically and others.

    - - - Updated - - -

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-he...KCN24N2FO?il=0


    Among the few states seeing a drop in infections was Arizona, another recent hotspot which saw new infections fall 13 percent last week. Hospitalizations in the state have steadily trended downward after peaking on July 13. Arizona Governor Doug Ducey, a Republican, was encouraged by those trends, his office said in a written statement, but cautioned that it was not time for the public to let down its guard. "We need to continue doing the things we know make a difference: wearing a mask, physically distancing and staying home as much as possible,” Ducey’s office said in the statement.
    Yep, and TX doesn't look far behind. But Tx has a lot bigger population, so the plateau at the top may be a longer and the downward trend a little slower.


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