Covid-19, Part VII - Staying On Topic...

[mth123]

If you're withholding government aid in a lockdown economy with scarce jobs that's just the worst kind of coercion.

So, no.

Is it still a lockdown economy? Where I live everything is open. People just aren't spending on certain businesses because they understand the risk.

[Rojo]

Is it still a lockdown economy? Where I live everything is open. People just aren't spending on certain businesses because they understand the risk.

In California it is.

If they're not spending, I'd argue they DON'T understand the risk, which is negligible.

[757690]

Is it still a lockdown economy? Where I live everything is open. People just aren't spending on certain businesses because they understand the risk.

Here in California, most restaurants are open to sit down, outdoor customers. They will open to indoor seating with 25% capacity after this weekend. Most stores are open, hair salons, tattoo parlors and even casinos are open.

The real sign is traffic. It’s back and as brutal as ever here in LA.

[Stray]

South Carolina update: We've been back to normal for many months now. Most people take precautions, some don't, but otherwise everything is operating as intended. Hospitals haven't been overrun, curve was flattened, and yeah...other than the temp checks it doesn't even come up at work.

[Rojo]

Here in California, most restaurants are open to sit down, outdoor customers. They will open to indoor seating with 25% capacity after this weekend. Most stores are open, hair salons, tattoo parlors and even casinos are open.

The real sign is traffic. It’s back and as brutal as ever here in LA.

Meaning its total garbage. I guess we just accept authoritarianism. Ok.

****. I thought being a Californian meant more than that.

[mth123]

In California it is.

If they're not spending, I'd argue they DON'T understand the risk, which is negligible.

I think somebody doesn't understand the risk. The risk of catching covid is that if you get it, you'll probably spread it. If it spreads, people will die, maybe not you (but maybe you) but people are passing away and others are suffering long lasting effects. We're coming up on 200,000 deaths in the next week or two. People in these very threads scoffed at me when I said I thought we'd reach that number by Christmas and far more before this is over. We've far exceeded the numbers that came out early (61,000 by August 1) and brought all the "everything is fine" folks out of the woodwork. Those numbers have proven way too optimistic and 1000 or more still die every day. Still, most people seem to be in the "everything is fine" mode. If stores, restaurants and workplaces weren't enforcing precautions (mostly out of fear of litigation) nobody would be doing anything to prevent a disease that we still can't treat and have no immunity against.

The idea that we should just let everybody get it to build immunity, and just let the weakest die, is ghoulish IMO. We need to buy time for science to solve the problem and keep the numbers as low as possible. If that means I'm not getting on a plane, going to a casino or eating in a restaurant and those businesses suffer, so be it. I hope the feds help those businesses out, but I'm not going to patronize them until this is over. I've kept pretty busy with outdoor and other fairly safe activities, and believe me, I've been spending more money than I'd like to support the economy, just not in certain businesses.

[BernieCarbo]

Is it still a lockdown economy? Where I live everything is open. People just aren't spending on certain businesses because they understand the risk.

You must not live in Ohio, because here you can't serve after ten, which is why a lot of people aren't going to go some of the upscale places where you don't want to be rushed. The smaller places that have patios, casual foods, music, etc, are bursting at the seams. It has nothing to do with risk.

The problems for these businesses will crop up again when it gets colder and the patios have to close again. It will reduce capacity quite a bit more.

[BernieCarbo]

I think somebody doesn't understand the risk. The risk of catching covid is that if you get it, you'll probably spread it. If it spreads, people will die, maybe not you (but maybe you) but people are passing away and others are suffering long lasting effects. We're coming up on 200,000 deaths in the next week or two. People in these very threads scoffed at me when I said I thought we'd reach that number by Christmas and far more before this is over. We've far exceeded the numbers that came out early (61,000 by August 1) and brought all the "everything is fine" folks out of the woodwork. Those numbers have proven way too optimistic and 1000 or more still die every day. Still, most people seem to be in the "everything is fine" mode. If stores, restaurants and workplaces weren't enforcing precautions (mostly out of fear of litigation) nobody would be doing anything to prevent a disease that we still can't treat and have no immunity against.

The idea that we should just let everybody get it to build immunity, and just let the weakest die, is ghoulish IMO. We need to buy time for science to solve the problem and keep the numbers as low as possible. If that means I'm not getting on a plane, going to a casino or eating in a restaurant and those businesses suffer, so be it. I hope the feds help those businesses out, but I'm not going to patronize them until this is over. I've kept pretty busy with outdoor and other fairly safe activities, and believe me, I've been spending more money than I'd like to support the economy, just not in certain businesses.

But people also look at the numbers. For instance, in Warren County, out of a population of 230,000, there have been 42 deaths, and most of those were in nursing homes. The others had other underlying conditions. Most people here still don't know anyone who has had it, let alone died from it.

So, they are getting back to normal as much as the government will let them. People are wearing masks, doing temperature checks, etc. In March there were plans to convert the Dayton Convention Center into a triage center, and we were then locked down for ten weeks. We were told that was necessary to flatten the curve, and we've done that.

[M2]

I don't get the "but it hasn't been too bad here" argument. Would you like it to be? Because it's a novel virus to which no one has natural immunity and it spreads super easy. Also, we have more than 193,000 dead. It's a loss of life off the charts for any infectious disease any of us have ever seen. How many hundreds of thousands of people have to die before people drop the dopey attempts to diminish massive amounts of dead bodies? I really need to know the number that makes you give a damn.

[BernieCarbo]

I don't get the "but it hasn't been too bad here" argument. Would you like it to be? Because it's a novel virus to which no one has natural immunity and it spreads super easy. Also, we have more than 193,000 dead. It's a loss of life off the charts for any infectious disease any of us have ever seen. How many hundreds of thousands of people have to die before people drop the dopey attempts to diminish massive amounts of dead bodies? I really need to know the number that makes you give a damn.

Who said I don't give a damn? I've taken this more seriously than most people here. I haven't even seen my dad since Christmas and he just turned 90, and my daughter and her two kids are staying him him in isolation just to make sure he's ok while my son in law works elsewhere. A lot of people are doing things like that. Families are torn apart everywhere to make do.

But the risk is not equal. If you are holed up in a nursing home and the person who is taking care of you took a three day class to get certified and makes $15 an hour, your risk is much higher than someone who lives in Springboro and works at Lexis Nexus. Now, if the Lexis Nexus guy goes to a bar and then visits grandma at the assisted living center, then that's stupid, but people aren't doing that. Even the guy here on this site who is high risk said his doctor told him it's safe to go out to eat in public.

And at the end of the day, almost half a million people per year die from tobacco use, and almost a hundred thousand from diabetes along with the associated blindness, amputations, and immobility. People can relate to that because they've lived with that year after year and the numbers are far higher. That definitely tempers the urgency.

Also, the governor just announced that high school sports are a go with up to 1500 spectators per game, so that also tempers the urgency. People think, "Well, if kids can play contact football and have grandma sit in the strands with hundreds of others, then what's the story? Is it a highly contagious disease that can kill everyone or isn't it?" Because what they are seeing is that the governor is letting high school sports go on because he and Fran have 24 grandkids, but he wants to shut down bars because he doesn't go out. Some consistency would help.

I'm just a regular guy looking at the situation. I know you're going to read more into it and call me a dummy, moron, stupid, that I don't understand, etc, etc, but I'm just trying to explain why someone feels safe going out for a pizza when they see that the death rate is one out of 10,000 in their area. If you want him to feel otherwise, have the governor explain why that behavior is dangerous but opening sporting events and King's Island isn't, especially since most businesses have gone above and beyond to conform to the standards he set for opening.

As for an absolute number? I don't know what it would take. But I can tell you that people are absolutely disgusted at how it was allowed to wipe out the elderly populations when a lot more could have been done much earlier. It isn't like people are indifferent, but they are looking at the "who" as much as the "how many".

[Falls City Beer]

I think we need to think about what happens if a vaccine doesn’t become available. I know officialdom is sanguine about it—they have to be; they aren’t going to say “It’s not going to happen anytime soon.” Pessimism or even realism gets you shouted down and ostracized on this board. Now imagine when careers are at stake.

But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t doubt. Or plan for that fairly likely scenario.

[M2]

Who said I don't give a damn?

Me, based on your previous, garbage minimization attempt of a post.

[M2]

I think we need to think about what happens if a vaccine doesn’t become available. I know officialdom is sanguine about it—they have to be; they aren’t going to say “It’s not going to happen anytime soon.” Pessimism or even realism gets you shouted down and ostracized on this board. Now imagine when careers are at stake.

But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t doubt. Or plan for that fairly likely scenario.

Some are (this fall and winter have the potential to be brutal even if we get a vaccine early in 2021). Most aren't.

[Falls City Beer]

Some are (this fall and winter have the potential to be brutal even if we get a vaccine early in 2021). Most aren't.

I can’t believe that something viable can be marketed in 9 months from when the effort to create a vaccine began in earnest. I just don’t buy it.

[dougdirt]

And at the end of the day, almost half a million people per year die from tobacco use, and almost a hundred thousand from diabetes along with the associated blindness, amputations, and immobility. People can relate to that because they've lived with that year after year and the numbers are far higher. That definitely tempers the urgency.

I'm so tired of reading stuff like this. Tobacco use doesn't kill you 3 weeks after you first try it. You also can't give someone else tobacco use simply by sneezing. Same for diabetes. At the end of the day, bringing up this stuff is ridiculous.