I'm specifically referring to starting a thread ranting and raving after 7 games in the new season wanting the guy fired. We started this weird season without three valuable players (Moose, Senzel, Barnhart). It doesn't seem to take much to get you all tied up in knots LOL
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
Yet there is a huge correlation between run differential and a team’s record.
Every year, look at the team’s run differential and the playoff teams. There may be about one exception each year.
That’s quite a bit more than “little or nothing” and is simply ignoring the actual facts.
BTW, there are 8 teams in the NL with records of .500 and above, which puts the Reds 1.5 games out of a playoff spot. But one of those teams is Miami at 2-1, and if you assume that Miami will not make the playoffs, the last team currently making it is at 3-4, or 1 game ahead of the Reds. Yet many are giving up?
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Last edited by PuffyPig; 08-02-2020 at 08:30 AM.
Ron Madden (08-02-2020)
Go find me evidence that teams sustain under or over performance relative to run differential, especially across multiple seasons, above and beyond what would be expected from random variation and I'll get off it.
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What record do you think that team will have over its next 100 games? Seriously, what's your number?
Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-02-2020 at 09:42 AM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
texasdave (08-02-2020)
REDREAD (08-02-2020),RedTeamGo! (08-02-2020)
Dick Williams has not had actual control over the Ops department since halfway through the 2016-2017 off-season and he inherited an operation that was still way behind the times.
I'm not saying he's blown my socks off. The results are certain still lacking. But considering the starting point, that it's been just 3 seasons, and that the focus has been on revamping the organization from the bottom up (which takes years to pay off), I still believe it's too early to judge.
I know that causes eye rolls. But 3 years and change is not enough time to assess whether Williams' approach is working.
And more to the point of this thread, 7 games on top of those 3 full season shouldn't make a lick of difference. If you weren't calling for his head in June, it doesn't make sense to be calling for it now.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
GAC (08-02-2020),HammerTime (08-02-2020),OGB (08-03-2020)
When there is a mismatch between WL and RS/RA it probably will eventually resolve.
But the resolution can be mostly a change in W-L; or mostly a change in RS/RA. So an interim RS/RA may not be a good predictor.
Last year it was argued that Reds W-L would improve to reach its good RS/RA. In fact, it was the RS/RA that changed.
So on July 1 last year Reds had a .463 W-L percentage but RS/RA of 356/319.
By seasons end Reds had the same .463 W-L percentage but RS/RA of 701/711.
Last edited by Kc61; 08-02-2020 at 10:12 AM.
Falls City Beer (08-02-2020)
"Actual games matter." What is this supposed to convey? Do you honestly believe I don't think actual games matter? Do you think I want only a positive win differential and don't care about the outcomes of games.
Show me a team with a positive W/L record and a negative run differential and I'll show you a team almost guaranteed to miss the playoffs (unless the season is nearly over). The results of actual games matter, obviously. They can't take wins away from you. There also is some degree of signal in W-L records that is not captured by run differential. I don't deny this.
However, the question is how much of W/L record is signal and how much is noise compared to the same question for run differential. The answer is tricky. Run differential gives you real signal MUCH earlier than W/L record does. In the long run, W/L record gives you more signal and, ultimately, after 162 (or 60) games, it's all that matters.
But after 7 games if your question is "How many games is this team likely to win given how it has performed so far", run differential gives you a more accurate picture than actual W-L does. And the studies have shown that you have to get most of the way through a 162 game season before W/L record is a better predictor of future W/L record than run differential is.
I am NOT happy about a 2-5 start. Make no mistake about it. But I don't think that 2-5 start portends a 25-35 final record or anything like that. I still believe this is a 31 or 32 win team talent wise and expect it to perform that way moving forward.
And until somebody shows me a truly compelling argument that the Reds are going to underperform for some particular set of reasons that could actually be addressed by different leadership, I'm going to roll my eyes at those who think they have special knowledge about why the Reds are an ongoing exception to the rule.
Given a process and an outcome, I'm going to continue to pursue the best looking process I can and trust that the outcome will come. If the outcome isn't coming, I'm certainly going to be open to checking my process to try to figure out if it's broken or not working for some reason. But until I can diagnose the actual problem with the process, not just point at the outcome repeatedly, it doesn't make sense to shout that the process has to change. It very well may need to. But simply demanding that the process ought to change over and over and over again simply isn't a useful conversation. The meaningful conversation has to be focused on why the process isn't working and how it can be improved.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-02-2020 at 10:19 AM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
PuffyPig (08-02-2020),Ron Madden (08-02-2020)
Reds were 24-33 in one-run games last year. High number of games, high number of losses. This year so far they are 0-2 in one run games.
Over a 60 game season, if the Reds lose a large number of one-run games the RS/RA might reflect a W-L better than the actual record.
This is possible with Reds’ bullpen although improved offense makes it less likely than last season.
REDREAD (08-02-2020)
REDREAD (08-02-2020)
Exactly. In a short season, a bullpen meltdown is going to be magnified. We are playing under a different set of rules. No time to wait for "things to even out".
I think most of the board would agree that last year, the only really reliable arms were Lorenzen and Garrett. Some people would say Robert Stephenson too. I don't want to argue the details, but obviously, the bullpen needed more help than Strop if the Reds hoped to be World Series contenders.
There was a study done a long time ago. I don't have the link, but it ran a correlation study among world series winners. The highest correlation between winning the World Series was defense and bullpen. Of course, correlation is not proof. There are teams that have won the WS with a bad bullpen, but it doesn't happen very often. It makes sense too. So the fact that Dick Williams publicly said
(paraphrased) that the bullpen was not the problem last year, combined with his
lack of action this offseason shows me that he does not know how to correctly build
a contending team, even when he has money.
Jim Bowden built on offense, defense and bullpen and was rightly criticized for neglecting starting pitching. Dick Williams thinks only starting pitching and offense matters.
Both philosophies are flawed.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Falls City Beer (08-02-2020),Roy Tucker (08-02-2020)
I agree with this, and think the bigger question is what kind of large-scope decisions should we be making in a SSS season? If the season plays out and the Reds miss the playoffs, even in an expanded format, should heads roll? I think so.
But given the SSS of this SSS season, I'm willing to give Williams and Bell another couple of weeks. I do think Williams has failed to address the bullpen in consecutive offseasons and should be held accountable. To what extent I don't know. And I do think Bell is lacking a certain mentality that could allow this team to gain an edge over opponents. But that's just a gut feeling and my gut could be wrong. I don't have a strong opinion about either guy, and maybe that's a symptom of the problems.
Falls City Beer (08-02-2020),REDREAD (08-02-2020)
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