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Thread: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

  1. #91
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    It won’t happen now. There is too much tumult going on now. In the off season? Sure. After a cold and analytical assessment. But in the middle of this weird uncertain hybrid semi-season. Nope. Not happening now.
    Yep. Table the matter.


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  3. #92
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    It wonít happen now. There is too much tumult going on now. In the off season? Sure. After a cold and analytical assessment. But in the middle of this weird uncertain hybrid semi-season. Nope. Not happening now.
    I liked this post because of the use of ďtumultĒ

    Respect.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  4. #93
    Goober GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    7 games? Where have you been the last 4-5 years? Williams has been in charge since December of 2016.
    I'm specifically referring to starting a thread ranting and raving after 7 games in the new season wanting the guy fired. We started this weird season without three valuable players (Moose, Senzel, Barnhart). It doesn't seem to take much to get you all tied up in knots LOL
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

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    Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Iím sorry but run differential means little to nothing IMHO. A 17-2 win counts the same as 2-1.

    17-2 win
    2-1 loss
    2-1 loss
    2-1 loss
    2-1 loss
    2-1 loss

    + 10 run diff!!
    Yet there is a huge correlation between run differential and a teamís record.

    Every year, look at the teamís run differential and the playoff teams. There may be about one exception each year.

    Thatís quite a bit more than ďlittle or nothingĒ and is simply ignoring the actual facts.

    BTW, there are 8 teams in the NL with records of .500 and above, which puts the Reds 1.5 games out of a playoff spot. But one of those teams is Miami at 2-1, and if you assume that Miami will not make the playoffs, the last team currently making it is at 3-4, or 1 game ahead of the Reds. Yet many are giving up?

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    Last edited by PuffyPig; 08-02-2020 at 08:30 AM.

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  7. #95
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    We heard the run differential stuff last year and they still ended up being garbage, Iím not buying it.
    Go find me evidence that teams sustain under or over performance relative to run differential, especially across multiple seasons, above and beyond what would be expected from random variation and I'll get off it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Iím sorry but run differential means little to nothing IMHO. A 17-2 win counts the same as 2-1.

    17-2 win
    2-1 loss
    2-1 loss
    2-1 loss
    2-1 loss
    2-1 loss

    + 10 run diff!!
    What record do you think that team will have over its next 100 games? Seriously, what's your number?
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-02-2020 at 09:42 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #96
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Go find me evidence that teams sustain under or over performance relative to run differential, especially across multiple seasons, above and beyond what would be expected from random variation and I'll get off it.

    - - - Updated - - -



    What record do you think that team will have over its next 100 games? Seriously, what's your number?
    No idea, and I think pretending you can tell off that run differential is silly.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  10. #97
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Iím sorry but run differential means little to nothing IMHO. A 17-2 win counts the same as 2-1.

    17-2 win
    2-1 loss
    2-1 loss
    2-1 loss
    2-1 loss
    2-1 loss

    + 10 run diff!!
    I made the same argument back in 2013 and basically got called a troll. Do I want the reds to have a positive win differential. Yes. Itís solid evidence that they will be a winning team. Does a positive run differential promise a winner. Nope. Actual games matter.

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  12. #98
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    It’s not 7 games. It’s like over 650.
    Dick Williams has not had actual control over the Ops department since halfway through the 2016-2017 off-season and he inherited an operation that was still way behind the times.

    I'm not saying he's blown my socks off. The results are certain still lacking. But considering the starting point, that it's been just 3 seasons, and that the focus has been on revamping the organization from the bottom up (which takes years to pay off), I still believe it's too early to judge.

    I know that causes eye rolls. But 3 years and change is not enough time to assess whether Williams' approach is working.

    And more to the point of this thread, 7 games on top of those 3 full season shouldn't make a lick of difference. If you weren't calling for his head in June, it doesn't make sense to be calling for it now.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  14. #99
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Dick Williams has not had actual control over the Ops department since halfway through the 2016-2017 off-season and he inherited an operation that was still way behind the times.

    I'm not saying he's blown my socks off. The results are certain still lacking. But considering the starting point, that it's been just 3 seasons, and that the focus has been on revamping the organization from the bottom up (which takes years to pay off), I still believe it's too early to judge.

    I know that causes eye rolls. But 3 years and change is not enough time to assess whether Williams' approach is working.

    And more to the point of this thread, 7 games on top of those 3 full season shouldn't make a lick of difference. If you weren't calling for his head in June, it doesn't make sense to be calling for it now.
    He became POBO in December of 2016 for the record.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    When there is a mismatch between WL and RS/RA it probably will eventually resolve.

    But the resolution can be mostly a change in W-L; or mostly a change in RS/RA. So an interim RS/RA may not be a good predictor.

    Last year it was argued that Reds W-L would improve to reach its good RS/RA. In fact, it was the RS/RA that changed.

    So on July 1 last year Reds had a .463 W-L percentage but RS/RA of 356/319.

    By seasons end Reds had the same .463 W-L percentage but RS/RA of 701/711.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-02-2020 at 10:12 AM.

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  18. #101
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    I made the same argument back in 2013 and basically got called a troll. Do I want the reds to have a positive win differential. Yes. It’s solid evidence that they will be a winning team. Does a positive run differential promise a winner. Nope. Actual games matter.
    "Actual games matter." What is this supposed to convey? Do you honestly believe I don't think actual games matter? Do you think I want only a positive win differential and don't care about the outcomes of games.

    Show me a team with a positive W/L record and a negative run differential and I'll show you a team almost guaranteed to miss the playoffs (unless the season is nearly over). The results of actual games matter, obviously. They can't take wins away from you. There also is some degree of signal in W-L records that is not captured by run differential. I don't deny this.

    However, the question is how much of W/L record is signal and how much is noise compared to the same question for run differential. The answer is tricky. Run differential gives you real signal MUCH earlier than W/L record does. In the long run, W/L record gives you more signal and, ultimately, after 162 (or 60) games, it's all that matters.

    But after 7 games if your question is "How many games is this team likely to win given how it has performed so far", run differential gives you a more accurate picture than actual W-L does. And the studies have shown that you have to get most of the way through a 162 game season before W/L record is a better predictor of future W/L record than run differential is.

    I am NOT happy about a 2-5 start. Make no mistake about it. But I don't think that 2-5 start portends a 25-35 final record or anything like that. I still believe this is a 31 or 32 win team talent wise and expect it to perform that way moving forward.

    And until somebody shows me a truly compelling argument that the Reds are going to underperform for some particular set of reasons that could actually be addressed by different leadership, I'm going to roll my eyes at those who think they have special knowledge about why the Reds are an ongoing exception to the rule.

    Given a process and an outcome, I'm going to continue to pursue the best looking process I can and trust that the outcome will come. If the outcome isn't coming, I'm certainly going to be open to checking my process to try to figure out if it's broken or not working for some reason. But until I can diagnose the actual problem with the process, not just point at the outcome repeatedly, it doesn't make sense to shout that the process has to change. It very well may need to. But simply demanding that the process ought to change over and over and over again simply isn't a useful conversation. The meaningful conversation has to be focused on why the process isn't working and how it can be improved.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-02-2020 at 10:19 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  20. #102
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Reds were 24-33 in one-run games last year. High number of games, high number of losses. This year so far they are 0-2 in one run games.

    Over a 60 game season, if the Reds lose a large number of one-run games the RS/RA might reflect a W-L better than the actual record.

    This is possible with Reds’ bullpen although improved offense makes it less likely than last season.

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    REDREAD (08-02-2020)

  22. #103
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Reds were 24-33 in one-run games last year. High number of games, high number of losses. This year so far they are 0-2 in one run games.

    Over a 60 game season, if the Reds lose a large number of one-run games the RS/RA might reflect a W-L better than the actual record.
    Like I said about 20 posts ago, the entire season is a small sample. I don’t know if any of this discussion is worth a dime this year.

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    REDREAD (08-02-2020)

  24. #104
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    If 7 games is less than meaningless, then why have a 60 game season? I agree itís obviously a small sample but then so is the entire season.
    Exactly. In a short season, a bullpen meltdown is going to be magnified. We are playing under a different set of rules. No time to wait for "things to even out".
    I think most of the board would agree that last year, the only really reliable arms were Lorenzen and Garrett. Some people would say Robert Stephenson too. I don't want to argue the details, but obviously, the bullpen needed more help than Strop if the Reds hoped to be World Series contenders.

    There was a study done a long time ago. I don't have the link, but it ran a correlation study among world series winners. The highest correlation between winning the World Series was defense and bullpen. Of course, correlation is not proof. There are teams that have won the WS with a bad bullpen, but it doesn't happen very often. It makes sense too. So the fact that Dick Williams publicly said
    (paraphrased) that the bullpen was not the problem last year, combined with his
    lack of action this offseason shows me that he does not know how to correctly build
    a contending team, even when he has money.

    Jim Bowden built on offense, defense and bullpen and was rightly criticized for neglecting starting pitching. Dick Williams thinks only starting pitching and offense matters.
    Both philosophies are flawed.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  26. #105
    Member Mitri's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams Needs To Resign

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Like I said about 20 posts ago, the entire season is a small sample. I donít know if any of this discussion is worth a dime this year.
    I agree with this, and think the bigger question is what kind of large-scope decisions should we be making in a SSS season? If the season plays out and the Reds miss the playoffs, even in an expanded format, should heads roll? I think so.

    But given the SSS of this SSS season, I'm willing to give Williams and Bell another couple of weeks. I do think Williams has failed to address the bullpen in consecutive offseasons and should be held accountable. To what extent I don't know. And I do think Bell is lacking a certain mentality that could allow this team to gain an edge over opponents. But that's just a gut feeling and my gut could be wrong. I don't have a strong opinion about either guy, and maybe that's a symptom of the problems.

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