Dick Williams Needs To Resign

[Ron Madden]

Sure he is the son of an owner, but he has also shown himself to be good at moving the Reds organization into the 21st century, something that was of dire need when he took over.

Amen!

[REDREAD]

They've also overhauled amateur scouting and drafting. They've also reorganized international scouting, including finally investing in Asia. Wins still need to come, but there's sensible optimism with regard to the broader organization.

We've heard this line about every General manager the Reds have had since and including Bowden, although sometimes the word "Latin America" is substituted for "Asia". Even Dan OBrien had his defenders.

[RedlegJake]

When Williams first emerged as a co-GM, in 2014/15 he wasn't in complete charge. He first had to deal with Jocketty and his advisors (the raft of old style failed GMs he hired from 2010 to 2014) and I am convinced that this cohort balked at Williams desire to move the Reds forward.

Williams took complete control when he became President of Baseball Operations and hired Krall as GM. That is also when the new thinking changes began to happen. Williams has been trying to change the direction of player development down the entire chain.

Then he began revamping the starting staff and last off season worked on building an offense to go with improved starters. Defense and the bullpen have suffered.

I understand the nepotism gripe but mark me down as in Williams corner. I think he's doing a good job rebuilding the infrastructure that develops players and it is mostly a long view.
Gray, Castellanos, Miley, Moustakas - those were moves designed to compete immediately but his real focus is on building a sustainable system, especially pitching.

As Antone, Green, Lodolo, Santillan advance more "failed starters" will emerge to feed the pen.

Also, changes out of his control, like truncated minor leagues, will make his developmental changes even more important.

[foster15]

Starting pitching upgrades are going to be more impactful than reliever upgrades since a good starter will get you 200 IP while a good reliever will get you 80 IP. So I think the Reds were correct in addressing the starting rotation first and have done a great job putting together an excellent rotation. Also, as far as reliever go, they are hard to predict, so while 80 IP of 2.50 ERA baseball and kicking replacing 80 IP of 5 ERA baseball is a nice decrease in runs allowed, the acquisition itself has a much higher risk of failure than hitters or starting pitchers. It also is going to have to be a monster upgrade to outweigh adding a much needed bat like Castellanos to the lineup.

The top line relievers signed last season are off to a rough start which is par for the course in signing free agent relievers:

Will Smith - Covid-19
Will Harris - 6.75 ERA
Dellin Betances - 15 ERA
Blake Treinen - 0.00 ERA but bad peripherals

Meanwhile Castellanos has a 1.343 OPS. This team is in a much better place with Castellanos than we are one of those relievers.

First of all, this season has proven to be kind of a fluke. Teams didn't tinker in the offseason with the expectation of a 60 game season with covid-19 dictating a lot of things, including no spring training.

So whatever happens this season, will be based on a lot of luck.

So I want to address making offseason moves based on a normal season. Keeping in mind that I'm not one to look at whatever happens this season over the long haul and blaming it on offseason moves.

Now, with that said, I don't agree that a single starter is more impactful than a reliever can be. At least not in all cases.

And the reason is the same as why we argue run differential. Would you rather your team score 20 runs in one game and zero in another vs 10 runs in 2 games? I'd take the 10 in two every time not knowing anything else.

A starter impacts one game for about every 6 innings he pitches. A reliever impacts about 6 games for every 6 innings he pitches. So if both had say an ERA of 6.00, that would be 4 runs given up in one game by the starter and 4 runs given up in 6 games for the reliever. The starter could cost us one loss at the most per 6 innings pitched while the reliever could cost us up to 4 losses dependent on how spread out those runs he gave up are and obviously if the bats absorbed it or not. But relievers giving up a run is usually more disastrous than a starter. Especially when it comes to the 2 or 3 you most depend on.

I agree that a starting pitching staff as a whole is more impactful, but not individually. And most importantly, the Reds starting staff was a perceived strength this past offseason without making moves while the relief corp was perceived as a weakness. There was much more room for improvement in the relief corp than the starting staff.

[BillDoran]

We've heard this line about every General manager the Reds have had since and including Bowden, although sometimes the word "Latin America" is substituted for "Asia". Even Dan OBrien had his defenders.

Valid argument. But look more closely than the international argument, where they'll likely never have the cash to compete.

Look at what the Reds are doing with the organizational pitching. Note all the coverage of Derek Johnson, Caleb Cotham and Kyle Boddy. Consider how good Gray, Castillo and Bauer look.

The Reds are trying (and appear to be succeeding) in building a competitive advantage. They're not just trying to apply the Yankees and Cubs formula with half the resources. They're doing what smart businesses and organizations do. They're looking to differentiate.

It may fail like all previous efforts have failed, but the fact that the Reds bought the very successful Johnson from the Brewers, then outbid the Cubs for Boddy, then brought in more Driveline guys this offseason suggests they've at least got a plan.

[mth123]

But it was William’s choice to tank. Those losing seasons were intentional in order to get better draft picks and rebuild the farm.

That didn’t have the desired results, the Reds farm is not the beast it should have been due to all that losing. They had to go out and spend a fortune to become competitive.

So we shouldn’t give Williams a pass on his first few seasons. They were a bust in regards to their ultimate goal.

I think the organization (Daddy, Uncle and Mr. Bob) chose to tank when the rotation of Bailey, Disco, Lorenzen and Iglesias evaporated prior to and during the 2016 season. They knew the rebuild wasn't going to be quick when that happened. Williams, being a family member, was more likely to just accept it than an outsider, which was my primary objection to hiring a family guy instead of the best guy available, but tanking in 2016 through 2018 was going to happen no matter who the GM was IMO. The guys Williams inherited Reed, Stephenson, Garrett, Lamb, Romano... all crashed and burned as starters, so they took time to see if any would work out before bringing anyone in. That's not how I would have played it, but any GM who thought that way wasn't going to get the job IMO. Finally, after 2018, the organization got tired of being a laughing stock and decided to go after pitching. Williams and his advisors did a pretty good job once that decision was made. I hate that the organization waited so long to actually try, but that doesn't mean Williams is personally responsible.

[757690]

Sure he is the son of an owner, but he has also shown himself to be good at moving the Reds organization into the 21st century, something that was of dire need when he took over.

Nearly every other organization found guys who did the same thing, most did it better, and none were relatives of the owner. Bringing the Reds into the 21st century, a good thing. Having Dick Williams be the ahead of that... the jury is still out.

[757690]

I think the organization (Daddy, Uncle and Mr. Bob) chose to tank when the rotation of Bailey, Disco, Lorenzen and Iglesias evaporated prior to and during the 2016 season. They knew the rebuild wasn't going to be quick when that happened. Williams, being a family member, was more likely to just accept it than an outsider, which was my primary objection to hiring a family guy instead of the best guy available, but tanking in 2016 through 2018 was going to happen no matter who the GM was IMO. The guys Williams inherited Reed, Stephenson, Garrett, Lamb, Romano... all crashed and burned as starters, so they took time to see if any would work out before bringing anyone in. That's not how I would have played it, but any GM who thought that way wasn't going to get the job IMO. Finally, after 2018, the organization got tired of being a laughing stock and decided to go after pitching. Williams and his advisors did a pretty good job once that decision was made. I hate that the organization waited so long to actually try, but that doesn't mean Williams is personally responsible.

All very good points.

However, you are leaving out that Williams was in GM when the Frazier and Chapman trades were made, which were what really set the Reds back, imo. Williams also refused to build a real roster, and instead rushed the prospects you mentioned, which is a big reason why they crashed and burned.

All of that is on Williams.

[mth123]

All very good points.

However, you are leaving out that Williams was in GM when the Frazier and Chapman trades were made, which were what really set the Reds back, imo. Williams also refused to build a real roster, and instead rushed the prospects you mentioned, which is a big reason why they crashed and burned.

All of that is on Williams.

I just don't think any of that is on Williams. It was on Daddy, Uncle and Mr. Bob.

[757690]

I just don't think any of that is on Williams. It was on Daddy, Uncle and Mr. Bob.

Dickie is part of the ownership group. That’s been the problem from day one.

If it’s one them, it’s on him too.

[Tom Servo]

Dickie is part of the ownership group.

I see two Williamses, and neither one is Dick. You can criticize him without inventing things.

[Falls City Beer]

That's not at all what I said. Relievers should be the last area of focus when it comes to building a winning team because of their volatile nature. And yeah, I am taking Castellanos over pretty much any reliever in the game.

But the choice should never have to be either/or. You can acquire Cast and pick up relievers and coach them for relatively cheap. The Reds used to do it all the time.

[757690]

I see two Williamses, and neither one is Dick. You can criticize him without inventing things.

Lol. It’s beyond ridiculous to believe that Dickie is separate from his father and uncle. He was chosen because he was kin and would do what they asked.

[Tom Servo]

Lol. It’s beyond ridiculous to believe that Dickie is separate from his father and uncle. He was chosen because he was kin and would do what they asked.

After all this time are we really going back to the coup theory

[757690]

After all this time are we really going back to the coup theory

Nope. Just nepotism in it’s most naked form.

Seriously, do you really think there is any separation between Dickie and his father and uncle?