offense

[Bruce Berenyi]

Williams said they got new offense talent to avoid all the close games they lost last year,,

so why bat ervin, jankowski, colon van meter and winker,, the games are close again and the bullpen is rancid

the bullpen has already lost 3 games maybe 3 and a half counting the cubs

[Falls City Beer]

Williams said they got new offense talent to avoid all the close games they lost last year,,

so why bat ervin, jankowski, colon van meter and winker,, the games are close again and the bullpen is rancid

the bullpen has already lost 3 games maybe 3 and a half counting the cubs

Yeah, I believed and still believe that “the offense will fix it” arguments were bs. Close games are always going to be a part of baseball, regardless of your offense. You’ve got to figure out how to seal them. This FO did not do that.

[MikeS21]

They bat those guys because the rules state that Moose, Cast, Shogo, and Votto can’t bat more than one time through the line up.

[Bruce Berenyi]

thanks for elucidating that abstruse point MIke

[Coopdaddy67]

Williams said they got new offense talent to avoid all the close games they lost last year,,

so why bat ervin, jankowski, colon van meter and winker,, the games are close again and the bullpen is rancid

the bullpen has already lost 3 games maybe 3 and a half counting the cubs

Unfortunately, Williams didn't predict a global pandemic would lead to the implementation of the DH. He shouldn't have allowed Votto, Moustakas and Senzel to be unavailable at times this year either.

[RedsManRick]

Every time I see somebody claim that the bullpen cost us a close game I wonder, how much of that was the bullpen allowing runs and how much of it was the offense not scoring runs? The league currently scores & allows 4.44 runs per game. That's essentially 0.5 runs per half inning as the break-even average point. You could, of course, argue that relievers tend to have lower ERA than starters, but that's barely true these days. The last few years, including 2020, starters were a mere 0.1 runs per 9 better than relievers. You could also argue, persuasively I think, that better relievers are used in the close games were typically looking closely at. That's likely true. If you want to adjust that 0.5 runs per inning down to 0.4, go for it. Just do it for both the bullpen and the offense.

So I figure it would be useful to think about the end of games in those terms.

So case in point yesterday:
- Bullpen allowed 4 runs in 3 innings, 2.5 runs more than the "expected" 1.5 runs. -2.5 runs (or -.5 runs if you want to not count the unearned runs against them)
- Offense scored 0 runs in 3 innings, 1.5 fewer runs than the "expected" 1.5 runs. -1.5 runs

So, we could look at it and say, we had a 2-0 lead and the bullpen blew it and tear into them. Narratively, sure, it describes what happened. But another way to say it is that the team had a -4 run differential in the last 3 innings, 60% of which is attributable to the bullpen and defense and 40% of which is attributable to the offense. Both under-performed and if either had done their job better, the outcome might have been different.

I also think it's helpful to remember that players don't control when they do well or poorly. At minimum, they have MUCH MUCH MUCH more control over whether they perform well than over when they perform well. And that's on top of admitting that even if we have the best bullpen in baseball, they're still going to allow something like 0.35 runs per half inning.

So yeah, the bullpen didn't exactly do its job yesterday. But if your team only wins close games when the bullpen is perfect, your problem goes well beyond your bullpen.

All that said, I'm generally a believer in the idea that late game management is sort of like your lineup. Once you're within the bounds of making reasonably intelligent choices, there's not a ton to be gained from the strategy of it. The vast majority of your success or failure will come from whether or not your players perform well in their given opportunities, which is to a first approximation NOT a function of which or when their opportunities come.

[Bruce Berenyi]

thats a great point now explain why they have a slugger i n the minors and an .050 batter playing

[bm1475]

Was this just a way to back into making an Aquino megathread? It kinda looks like it

[Old school 1983]

Bruce has a point. At this juncture the DH is deadweight. Aquino was a beast for a month last year. Let’s see if he can repeat it.

[Kc61]

Every time I see somebody claim that the bullpen cost us a close game I wonder, how much of that was the bullpen allowing runs and how much of it was the offense not scoring runs? The league currently scores & allows 4.44 runs per game. That's essentially 0.5 runs per half inning as the break-even average point. You could, of course, argue that relievers tend to have lower ERA than starters, but that's barely true these days. The last few years, including 2020, starters were a mere 0.1 runs per 9 better than relievers. You could also argue, persuasively I think, that better relievers are used in the close games were typically looking closely at. That's likely true. If you want to adjust that 0.5 runs per inning down to 0.4, go for it. Just do it for both the bullpen and the offense.

So I figure it would be useful to think about the end of games in those terms.

So case in point yesterday:
- Bullpen allowed 4 runs in 3 innings, 2.5 runs more than the "expected" 1.5 runs. -2.5 runs (or -.5 runs if you want to not count the unearned runs against them)
- Offense scored 0 runs in 3 innings, 1.5 fewer runs than the "expected" 1.5 runs. -1.5 runs

So, we could look at it and say, we had a 2-0 lead and the bullpen blew it and tear into them. Narratively, sure, it describes what happened. But another way to say it is that the team had a -4 run differential in the last 3 innings, 60% of which is attributable to the bullpen and defense and 40% of which is attributable to the offense. Both under-performed and if either had done their job better, the outcome might have been different.

I also think it's helpful to remember that players don't control when they do well or poorly. At minimum, they have MUCH MUCH MUCH more control over whether they perform well than over when they perform well. And that's on top of admitting that even if we have the best bullpen in baseball, they're still going to allow something like 0.35 runs per half inning.

So yeah, the bullpen didn't exactly do its job yesterday. But if your team only wins close games when the bullpen is perfect, your problem goes well beyond your bullpen.

All that said, I'm generally a believer in the idea that late game management is sort of like your lineup. Once you're within the bounds of making reasonably intelligent choices, there's not a ton to be gained from the strategy of it. The vast majority of your success or failure will come from whether or not your players perform well in their given opportunities, which is to a first approximation NOT a function of which or when their opportunities come.

The Reds spent large sums last off-season trying to fix the offense. They did not do much of substance to improve the late inning relief.

So while both areas share in losing close games, it’s harder to swallow continued bullpen issues. With the offense, well they certainly tried.

[DocRed]

Awfull

[Reds Freak]

Frustrating so far for sure. But they seem to be unlucky with BABIP (29th in MLB) and we're 12 games with a stop-and-start spring training. I know it's a short season, but sometimes I remember that normally we'd be at like April 15 right now.

[NC-Red]

I said it in week 1 that the offense was a major concern and everybody said it was “early.” Well it’s not so early
Anymore after already playing 1/6 of the schedule. They cannot hit outside of the occasional home run. They look no better than last season when the offense was dreadful.

[westofyou]

Small Sample sizes know nothing about short seasons's

Be prepared is all I can think

[NC-Red]

Reds currently rank 23rd in team batting average after ranking 24th last season with a higher BA. This just shows that nobody on this team can get on base or hit outside of hitting a HR.