Reds stats after 15 games, 2020

[Kc61]

One quarter of the shortened 2020 regular season is complete for Reds. They are 7-8, second place in NL Central by win percentage, trail Cubs by 4 games, but standings are incomplete since division rival Cards have only played 5 games due to coronavirus. Reds RS/RA is-4. Reds are 2-2 in one-run games, 3-5 at home and 4-3 on the road.

Offense - Reds team OPS is .697, tenth in NL, with BA of .200 last in the NL. OBP is 8th in league at .314, with BB% second highest at 12.0%. SLG is tenth at .384, although Reds have third most homers, 21. Reds team BABIP is league low .226 which helps explain BA. wRC+ for non-pitchers is 97, just below league average 100. Reds have scored 64 runs, seventh highest in NL, although wide variations in games played by some teams.

Individually, Castellanos has been the major bat with .315/.393/.778/1.171. No other Reds hitter (excluding one game for rookie Stephenson) is above .250 BA. Castellanos and Moustakas (small sample due to injury) only Reds above .800 OPS although Votto and Senzel are close to that figure.

Pitching - Team pitching ERA is 3.87, 8th in NL. (Fangraphs shows it as 4.08, slight discrepancy with earned runs allowed.) Fangraphs FIP listed at .337 and xFIP at 3.14, with Reds having best pitching fWAR in league at 2.9. Reds dominating in K rate, 12.38, by far highest in league. Walk rate ninth best at 3.45.

Of course, Reds pitching led by tremendous effort by starters. Reds starters with 2.30 ERA, leading league, 111 strikeouts, leading league, 12.18 K rate, leading league. Starters have allowed 5 homers total, tied for league's fewest (with clubs having fewer games). Gray 3-0, 0.96 ERA, 13.50 K rate, 2.41 BB rate, 2.32 FIP. Bauer 2-0, 0.93 ERA, 14.90 K rate, 1.86 BB rate, 1.84 FIP. DeSclafani 1-0 with 0.00 ERA in two starts. Castillo wit 4.76 ERA but 13.76 K rate.

Bullpen a different story with 7.24 ERA, 14th in NL High K rate of 12.72 but also high BB rate of 4.70. Fangraphs shows pen FIP at 5.55 but xFIP at better 3.98. Pen with 4 losses and 3 blown saves so far. Very small sample for relievers and team has been sorting through a number of relievers. Lucas Sims a pleasant surprise with 1.23 ERA, although 2 blown saves. Garrett at 1.59 ERA. Iglesias perhaps settling down, 16.88 K rate with 0 BBs so far despite 5.06 early ERA. Lorenzen off to shaky start.

Fielding - Reds with low Fangraphs Def of -2.9. Reds also low using DRS, -4. Using Fangraphs Def, Galvis leads team with .7. Catchers also positive, Senzel at .5. Votto -1.4, Shogo (LF) -1.1, Castellanos -1.0. Reds have allowed 13 unearned runs this season (Fangraphs shows 10).

Reds have had their share of injuries and absences, although some teams much worse. Reds soon have eight games with KC (6-10) and Pittsburgh (3-12) so a chance to get over .500. It's been awhile.

[schroomytunes]

good post!!! hopefully the offense can get it going and the pen can settle down a bit!!

[M2]

Reds team BABIP is league low .226

That's actually good news. That's going to rise sharply and fairly soon. It's hard for a team number that low to persist.

And while 7-8 is far from ideal at the quarter pole, it won't be any major impediment as long as they can make it their worst quarter this season. It's a pretty decent record when luck is working hardcore against you (their pitching BABIP is right at the MLB average).

[Kc61]

That's actually good news. That's going to rise sharply and fairly soon. It's hard for a team number that low to persist.

And while 7-8 is far from ideal at the quarter pole, it won't be any major impediment as long as they can make it their worst quarter this season. It's a pretty decent record when luck is working hardcore against you (their pitching BABIP is right at the MLB average).

Fully agree, I suggested in the OP that Reds’ team BA should improve with inevitable BABIP uptick.

Last year Reds were last in NL offensive BABIP as well. However, of course, at a much higher level, .288.

This year NL league average BABIP is .276 as compared with .298 last season.

One can look for upward BABIP trends from the league generally, and particularly from the Reds who are .050 behind league average and .062 behind last year, despite an upgraded offense.

[Kc61]

A few games ago, when this thread was done, Reds team ERA was 3.87. It is now 4.45 along with 15 unearned runs allowed. Overall, Reds have allowed 96 runs, which is the fifth most in the league. Reds’ RS/RA is now -13, was -4 when the thread was started.

Run prevention, guys.

[mth123]

A few games ago, when this thread was done, Reds team ERA was 3.87. It is now 4.45 along with 15 unearned runs allowed. Overall, Reds have allowed 96 runs, which is the fifth most in the league. Reds’ RS/RA is now -13, was -4 when the thread was started.

Run prevention, guys.

Daggone defense should have prevented those 3 HR in the first inning tonight.

[Kc61]

Daggone defense should have prevented those 3 HR in the first inning tonight.

Must have been Jankowski’s fault.

[RedsManRick]

Regarding the bullpen, it has allowed HR on 25% of hits flyballs, stranding fewer than 60% of men on base.

Anything can happen in small samples in terms of observed performance. So let's get that out of the way. However, it's a reasonable question to wonder what we should expect as moving forward given what we've seen so far. Expected performance is, to a first approximation, a question of true talent.

Prior to the season, which is still our best esimate of true talent at this point, the Reds bullpen was projected to be decent. But let's assume that was just flat wrong and this actually is the worst pen in baseball. In a full season in recent years, the worst bullpen in baseball typically allows ~17% HR/FB and strands ~68% of men on base.

To reiterate, in smaller samples, you expect more variance and thus more extreme values. So the worst team this year will likely perform at worse than those levels after 60 games. But as an anchor point, the answer to the question "But what if they really are this bad?" is "Nope. Even assuming the worst, the aren't this bad. Not even close."