60 Game Sample Size and the Big Picture

[UPRedsFan]

This is where I live

Baseball is not a small sample game, this is not a normal season, I don't expect normalcy in the numbers at all, I'm just happy there is some baseball to divert my attention. I am just going to ride it and enjoy what is out there. When the Reds do bad I move on and watch other games, I am a baseball fan first then a Reds fan. I refuse to let the Reds ruin baseball for me, I suggest some other should take that approach as well.

Chicken soup for the Reds fan. Good advice Westofyou!

I think we ought to take it a game at a time. When they play well and when the key players meet our expectations, we can enjoy that game and be happy for the entertainment. When last night happens, turn it off and wait for the next game, or watch another game as you say.

If they don’t go on a streak and make the playoffs, I’m still looking forward to 2021 normal season with this roster minus Disco and Galvis most likely.

[podgejeff_]

Chicken soup for the Reds fan. Good advice Westofyou!

I think we ought to take it a game at a time. When they play well and when the key players meet our expectations, we can enjoy that game and be happy for the entertainment. When last night happens, turn it off and wait for the next game, or watch another game as you say.

If they don’t go on a streak and make the playoffs, I’m still looking forward to 2021 normal season with this roster minus Disco and Galvis most likely.

And probably Bauer.

[westofyou]

And probably Bauer.

There will be a lot of turnover in most teams rosters in the next two years with the CBA coming to renewal. It's going to be really volatile and somewhat exciting. However there could be a work stoppage too, going to be weird the next couple seasons. Just like it has been this year

[Ron Madden]

There will be a lot of turnover in most teams rosters in the next two years with the CBA coming to renewal. It's going to be really volatile and somewhat exciting. However there could be a work stoppage too, going to be weird the next couple seasons. Just like it has been this year

The One Thing I hope doesn't happen is another work stoppage

[klw]

This is where I live

Baseball is not a small sample game, this is not a normal season, I don't expect normalcy in the numbers at all, I'm just happy there is some baseball to divert my attention. I am just going to ride it and enjoy what is out there. When the Reds do bad I move on and watch other games, I am a baseball fan first then a Reds fan. I refuse to let the Reds ruin baseball for me, I suggest some other should take that approach as well. It's liberating.

When life gives you lemons make lemonade.

I can't watch the Reds games unless they are the MLB.com free game or on ESPN. I find it easier not to watch most of the time these past few years.

[westofyou]

The One Thing I hope doesn't happen is another work stoppage

Yep, I have a feeling this one will be a bad one too. I'm still affected by the whole year the NHL took off in 2004

[thejanitor]

The Reds are where they should be. I never bought into this Reds being favorites to win the division. At best they were among the Cards, Cubs and Brewers as being contenders.

As for the current state of the team, Castellanos and Winker have exceeded their expectations which negates Moustakas and Suarez who have disappointed thus far. The rest of the position players are producing within expectations. The Reds starters have been fantastic while the pen while not good is within line with everyones else's in the division. Even if the Reds get lucky and make the playoffs it is doubtful they make it past someone like the Dodgers.

[foster15]

Suggesting baseball should only be evaluated over a 160+ game season feels more like the excuses of a team that is 6 games under .500 after the halfway point. They play baseball in college and decide the best team without anything near 160 games....same for every other level. There can always be an argument that the larger the sample size of anything, the more accurate the results the sample will produce. At the same time, we were given 60 games to make our case....it is not like we came up short in a single elimination tournament...and we have failed.

This. I doubt anyone is going to say when season is over, "We built this team to win over a 162 game schedule, not a 60 game schedule". The 162 game schedule wasn't some magic number that separates contenders from pretenders, it's a way for MLB to maximize profits. And while some teams do turn it around from game 61 or 100 or whatever, and get into the post season, I'm pretty sure thats an anomaly and should not be used as an excuse for failure in 60 games. One of the reasons it takes teams so long to turn things around in a season is because the luxury to do so exists and they are managed that way, but when the urgency hits, they play their best. Well the urgency started game one this year and the Reds aren't responding.

[CaiGuy]

This. I doubt anyone is going to say when season is over, "We built this team to win over a 162 game schedule, not a 60 game schedule". The 162 game schedule wasn't some magic number that separates contenders from pretenders, it's a way for MLB to maximize profits. And while some teams do turn it around from game 61 or 100 or whatever, and get into the post season, I'm pretty sure thats an anomaly and should not be used as an excuse for failure in 60 games. One of the reasons it takes teams so long to turn things around in a season is because the luxury to do so exists and they are managed that way, but when the urgency hits, they play their best. Well the urgency started game one this year and the Reds aren't responding.

Just because the importance of each game and each AB is heaver because of a 60 game schedule, doesn't change the laws of physics of baseball. And one of those laws is you need a really large sample to separate the noise and luck out of both individual and team performances. The long season separates the talented from the less talented.

Even in the 60 game season, it looks like the Reds quickly jumped towards what they should be based on the talent on their roster.

[foster15]

Just because the importance of each game and each AB is heaver because of a 60 game schedule, doesn't change the laws of physics of baseball. And one of those laws is you need a really large sample to separate the noise and luck out of both individual and team performances. The long season separates the talented from the less talented.

Even in the 60 game season, it looks like the Reds quickly jumped towards what they should be based on the talent on their roster.

I'm not buying it. 162 games is what MLB does. But baseball is played on all other levels(high school and college for instance) in much less games and the cream rises to the top just the same. The reason it seems needed in MLB is because the luxury to take your time is there. Things like leaving a ready star in the minors a few months to keep the rights to him an extra season is one thing. Being more cautious with what appears to be non-serious injuries is another. Fooling around longer with players like Jankowski, Davidson, Colon, and Nate Jones is another. The ability to play .500 ball up to the trade deadline and then improve is another.

A lot of those things just don't happen or happen on a smaller scale in shortened season.

[CaiGuy]

I'm not buying it. 162 games is what MLB does. But baseball is played on all other levels(high school and college for instance) in much less games and the cream rises to the top just the same. The reason it seems needed in MLB is because the luxury to take your time is there. Things like leaving a ready star in the minors a few months to keep the rights to him an extra season is one thing. Being more cautious with what appears to be non-serious injuries is another. Fooling around longer with players like Jankowski, Davidson, Colon, and Nate Jones is another. The ability to play .500 ball up to the trade deadline and then improve is another.

A lot of those things just don't happen or happen on a smaller scale in shortened season.

There are much wider gaps in talent in amateur baseball than in the pros. Like a lot. The really good players can feast on the less-talented even in a shorter sample. They can put up video-game numbers.

In the majors, everyone is actually a really talented ballplayer. Even the scrubs, relatively speaking. Much smaller gabs in talent.

Look no further than the world champs from last year. They were sub-500 for the first 60+ games. We can really argue that they were really a sub-500 talent team can we?

And would these Marlins be hanging around for 162 games?