NBA 2019-20: Who wins the bubble?

[Kingspoint]

It may be 2-0 Miami, but this series will be tied before it's over.

These are two great teams with two great Coaches who are both excellent at making adjustments...probably the two best in the league the last several years.

[Bourgeois Zee]

It may be 2-0 Miami, but this series will be tied before it's over.

Maybe.

Both games were the C's to lose. And they did.

Similar to the Clippers, Boston seems to be the more talented team but is having issues producing. Tatum made multiple bone-headed moves last night when he couldn't afford to make any. Brown struggled for the second game in a row. Kemba was better, but also had several head-scratching moments. Smart, even though he's playing as well as he has his entire career, came back to earth slightly.

Much of the issue, IMO, is laid at the feet of Stevens. His late-game offensive sets are putrid. (12 seconds of dribbling in place before a hero ball shot from either long two or deep three range? I could design that play.) Not having Hayward has limited his substitution patterns, I'm sure, but Theis can't handle Bam when he's rolling, so he turns to untested rookie Grant Williams-- who's the same size as Theis and offers pretty much the same athletic package? (I suspect this is the limitation of the small-ball center, btw. If you're being overpowered in the pain-- and Boston is-- you need a bruiser to put a stop to that.)

Part of it is Miami's offense and how well its parts fit together and are just basketball smart. Adebayo might be a high basketball IQ second-teamer, but he's the third smartest guy on that team. Both Dragic and Butler are genius level basketball smart. (This, IMO, is where Miami's "culture" destroys the rest of the league, save perhaps the Lakers, who boast two all-timer Basketball Genius guys in Rondo and LeBron. It might also be the hidden tool we, as fans, dismiss or ignore. It's so often the key to success in a league where everyone has 99.99% athleticism.)

Spo's offensive sets are beautiful to watch, but the players flow freely within those sets and play smart. Duncan Robinson sprinting to a new area to catch and shoot threes, knowing Dragic will find him? Adebayo seeing a back-cut and waiting for the defender to commit so that he can pass to the open corner three? Herro recognizing the mismatch on Bam so that he can lob to the rim off the dribble drive? Butler's defensive stance, fundamentals, and realization that he can disrupt Walker's/ Brown's/ Tatum's drives with a denial then having the presence of mind to flick away the lob? That's basketball porn right there. Even newbie Jae Crowder (another smart player) understands not just his own responsibilities, but everyone else's.

So far this series, Spo's coaching rings around Stevens, IMO. He's pushing the right buttons, and his players are responding over and over again.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I remain interested in how Denver and LA will stack their lineups in their series, and I've come to the conclusion that it might behoove Malone to go super big with Plumlee and Jokic together in the frontcourt.

That allows Jokic to guard Howard or McGee (and easier cover than AD) and hack on AD with Plumlee, hoping to wear him out with physicality. This, in turn, allows Grant and Millsap to tag off on LeBron (run like hell and hope to tire him out) and Murray to guard the weakest of Green, KCP, or Rondo, with Harris on the better scorer (and occasionally on James?). Most importantly, it allows both of his stars to essentially rest a bit on defense.

Vogel will counter with Kuzma in a big lineup, but Malone can move Porter in at that point, and put him on the Kuz. (Which works in Denver's favor, IMO.)

Vogel could also go small.

I'm pretty sure he wants AD on Jokic as much as possible. That would require a "small ball" lineup of all 6'11" guys with wingspans that stretch across a street from white line to white line. (AD on Joker, LeBron as a Swiss Army knife bodying Porter, and Morris/ Kuzma defending Millsap/ Grant/ Plumlee.) This would mean KCP and Green can take turns on Murray, forming yet another superior defensive front for the Blue Arrow to fire against. (Seriously, has any scorer had to do more against so many than Murray this series?)

I don't think this is a great series for Playoff Rondo to go nuts. He might play when Malone goes to his bench for Craig or Morris. His minutes against Murray should probably be limited. (That said, Rondo as a help defender on Harris might be a smart way to bother Jokic and/or Murray.)

What would you guys do?

[M2]

I tend toward the best plan being getting your best players the most minutes. I know coaches are trying to exploit matchups, but can your best 5 take their best 5? For Denver, if guys like Milsap, Grant and Harris can be a handful, the Lakers are going to be stretched. L.A. probably needs Kuzma and Green to make the Nuggets pay for over attention to Bron and AD.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I tend toward the best plan being getting your best players the most minutes. I know coaches are trying to exploit matchups, but can your best 5 take their best 5? For Denver, if guys like Milsap, Grant and Harris can be a handful, the Lakers are going to be stretched. L.A. probably needs Kuzma and Green to make the Nuggets pay for over attention to Bron and AD.

The issue is that, at this point in the playoff game, my best five largely depends on the matchups.

Rondo ate Westbrook's lunch in the last series. I'm not sure he's the Laker's seventh or eighth best player against Murray and the Nugs.

Dwight Howard could well be a key figure in this series, and he was a mop-up guy against Houston.

[M2]

The issue is that, at this point in the playoff game, my best five largely depends on the matchups.

Rondo ate Westbrook's lunch in the last series. I'm not sure he's the Laker's seventh or eighth best player against Murray and the Nugs.

Dwight Howard could well be a key figure in this series, and he was a mop-up guy against Houston.

I find it hard to believe Howard or McGee are on the floor at crunch time. Rondo is probably the biggest wild card for the Lakers, with Porter being that guy for the Nuggets (he might be able to torch Kuzma).

[Bourgeois Zee]

I find it hard to believe Howard or McGee are on the floor at crunch time. Rondo is probably the biggest wild card for the Lakers, with Porter being that guy for the Nuggets (he might be able to torch Kuzma).

I'm not sure about Howard, M2.

Davis has positively owned Jokic when they've gone head to head over their careers, true. But Jokic is uniquely difficult to guard, and the Lakers have multiple options. In a reserve role from this season only, Howard's per minute numbers against Jokic and company are exceptional. Double figure scoring on a very high percentage with great per minute rebounding numbers and huge free throw numbers. (He didn't hit them, but it does indicate he causes problems when he plays.) Play him 25 - 30 minutes, and he's likely to give you a double-double and, more importantly wear Jokic out by taking him inside and banging on him all game.

This also allows Davis to play Grant/ Millsap/ Porter and be a defensive safety on a wing (with LeBron at the other wing) and negate Denver's rebounding wings (Porter and Grant, typically). It also alleviates some concern about Laker guards, who can then focus 18 fouls and manic energy on chasing Murray all over the court. It also limits Rondo's minutes. (I suspect he'll be a net minus in this series.)

[Kingspoint]

Marcus Smart was yelling/motivating his teammates in the lockerroom after the loss to be accountable for their actions.

I'm going to guess that Marcus Smart is not the most "diplomatic" type of motivator.

Jaelyn Brown got his feelings ruffled, didn't want his teammates to listen to Smart's rant, or whatever, and took exception and told him to settle down.

Smart took it up a notch and they got into a scuffle before teammates broke it up.


Smart accomplished what he went after....got everyone to pay attention to what's happening.

Celtics will win the next two games.

[Kingspoint]

Howard's a dirty player who can bother whoever he goes against, including put a lot of physical pain on others. His six fouls that he uses make a mark even if his Defense is on the atrocious side of things.

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Milsap needs to retire. Grant should be playing 40 minutes.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Howard's a dirty player who can bother whoever he goes against, including put a lot of physical pain on others. His six fouls that he uses make a mark even if his Defense is on the atrocious side of things.

Howard's defensive rating-- 103-- ranks third on the Lakers' team.

[M2]

I'm not sure about Howard, M2.

Davis has positively owned Jokic when they've gone head to head over their careers, true. But Jokic is uniquely difficult to guard, and the Lakers have multiple options. In a reserve role from this season only, Howard's per minute numbers against Jokic and company are exceptional. Double figure scoring on a very high percentage with great per minute rebounding numbers and huge free throw numbers. (He didn't hit them, but it does indicate he causes problems when he plays.) Play him 25 - 30 minutes, and he's likely to give you a double-double and, more importantly wear Jokic out by taking him inside and banging on him all game.

This also allows Davis to play Grant/ Millsap/ Porter and be a defensive safety on a wing (with LeBron at the other wing) and negate Denver's rebounding wings (Porter and Grant, typically). It also alleviates some concern about Laker guards, who can then focus 18 fouls and manic energy on chasing Murray all over the court. It also limits Rondo's minutes. (I suspect he'll be a net minus in this series.)

We'll have to see how it plays out, but when he's on defense the Nuggets can pull Howard 20 feet away from the basket and switch him to death. And I suspect Denver would love to see Howard getting touches on offense.

[Bourgeois Zee]

We'll have to see how it plays out, but when he's on defense the Nuggets can pull Howard 20 feet away from the basket and switch him to death. And I suspect Denver would love to see Howard getting touches on offense.

If he's rolling to the basket, a la Bam, I'd bet on Howard doing some real damage to anyone who's happy to see him there.

Good point on switching Howard as a weak link. But he's not exactly a weak link in that area. (Focus on the Murray D at somewhere around 1:17, among others):


Offensively, he's able to do this:

[adkindo]

Howard's a dirty player who can bother whoever he goes against, including put a lot of physical pain on others. His six fouls that he uses make a mark even if his Defense is on the atrocious side of things.

Howard is an aging player that has diminished athleticism by his standards, and that will from time to time lead to physical fouls....and even fouls out of personal frustration. All that said, as someone who has had a low opinion of Howard for much of his career, I would never call him a "dirty player". The truth is (in my opinion) the league no longer has many truly dirty players because the players for the most part will not tolerate the type of "dirty player" that was in the NBA through the '90's.....and through punitive measures, the league has legislated most of the dirty play from the league. Maybe our definition is simply different, and you are more referring to agitating and baiting stuff, but I do not consider that "dirty play".

[Kingspoint]

Howard's defensive rating-- 103-- ranks third on the Lakers' team.

Small sample size. He sucks on Defense.

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Howard is an aging player that has diminished athleticism by his standards, and that will from time to time lead to physical fouls....and even fouls out of personal frustration. All that said, as someone who has had a low opinion of Howard for much of his career, I would never call him a "dirty player". The truth is (in my opinion) the league no longer has many truly dirty players because the players for the most part will not tolerate the type of "dirty player" that was in the NBA through the '90's.....and through punitive measures, the league has legislated most of the dirty play from the league. Maybe our definition is simply different, and you are more referring to agitating and baiting stuff, but I do not consider that "dirty play".

He's a dirty player. It's not defensible. Only a Laker fan would try to say that.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Small sample size. He sucks on Defense.

Small sample... on... the... season?

The entire season?

Given more than 10 games played, he's been 104 or lower every year he's played in the NBA.