We are in the late stretch of the 2020 NL Playoff chase with only 23 games remaining, and as has been the case in recent years, we are on the outside looking in. The difference is we are not completely out of the picture in this abbreviated season...not even close. The situation as of today is we are 2.5 games behind the 2nd place team in the Central Division and 2 games behind the 8th place team in the NL which would be the final wild card. Compared to 2019 with 23 games remaining, we were 14.5 games behind in the Central Division and 11.5 games behind the final Wild Card slot, both clearly an insurmountable deficit.
While we remain in the playoff hunt, I have seen little signs that we are going to catch fire and chase down the Cubs (we trail Cubs by 6 Games) to win the Central and will likely need some help, or at least not have other teams get hot and go on a run. We are 6 Games under .500 which is bad, but the NL does not even have 8 teams over .500 if the playoffs started today...and only 5 teams with a record above .500.
I am someone that likes to look out at the schedule and play with what happens if we win this game or lose that game. Most of those models usually result in me walking away realizing what is always true....we just need to win games. Still, it seems like we have mostly focused on the NL Central Division games on the schedule because they have such a direct impact on our standing within the division since a win always results in a NL Central Division foe losing. While the NL Central games do have elevated importance, I have had an eye on the two AL Central series we have late in the season against the White Sox and Twins. Both teams have been in the playoff hunt this season which could result in tougher series, but recently both teams have positioned themselves to likely get in the playoffs which is potentially good for the Reds. Ideally, both will continue to play well, and be safely in the playoffs when we play those series.
As we know, the expanded playoff in 2020 will include the Division winners being seeded #1-#3 and the Division runner ups being seeded #4-#6 followed by the two Wild Card slots being seeded #7 & #8. Right now, it appears very likely that 5 NL teams are safe or getting close to safe of making the post season (Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Padres Phillies) and may slot something like the following with the final 3 slots unlikely to remain the same in order or team.
1. Dodgers
2. Braves
3. Cubs (Reds trail by 6 games)
4. Padres (Reds trail by 6 games)
5. Phillies (Reds trail by 4 games)
6. Cardinals (Reds trail by 2.5 games)
7. Marlins (Reds trail by 2.5 games)
8. Rockies (Reds trail by 2 games)
There is clutter beyond the 8 teams as currently the Giants and Brewers have a 1.5 Game lead n the Reds and the Mets have a 0.5 game lead on the Reds. I think the teams trailing the Reds are not likely in the post season picture.
Marlins
The most likely team to fall out of post season contention is the Marlins. They begin a 3 game series on the road today against the Rays who are the #1 AL team, followed by a 3 game road series against the NL East leading Braves who are playing their best baseball of the year, followed by 7 game home series against the Phillies who are the hottest team in baseball. It would not surprise me if the Marlins lose 9/10 of those 13 games and drift out of the post season picture.
Cardinals
Based on the opposition remaining on their schedule, the Cardinals appear to be in a fairly good position. The problem is not the Win/Loss records of the opponents, but the fact that the Cardinals have to fit over 30 games into a 23 day calendar. They begin a 5 game series (4 Road & 1 Home) in 4 days against the NL Central leader Cubs today. The Cardinals have 7 Double Headers scheduled over the next 23 days. I think the Cardinals are similar in quality to the Reds, but I have doubts they will be able to maintain their current position with the schedule demands to finish the season.
Rockies
The Rockies started the season strong due to a favorable schedule, but recently have been mediocre at best. Based on the way they have played recently and their upcoming schedule, I am confident they will slide in the standings. Today they begin a 3 game road series against the Dodgers followed by a 3 game series against the Padres who have been excellent @ home this season. A quick series against the Angels could be a break before going into a 2 game series against the AL West leading A's followed by a 4 game series against the Dodgers.
Giants, Mets and Brewers
The other 3 teams are situationally positioned similar to the Reds in both record and schedule remaining. Unlike the Reds, I personally think all 3 teams records are a little better than their roster and I would bet on all 3 having a record below .500 in the games remaining on each teams schedule.
Am I bias? Yes, but I think I have been reasonably fair about our current position and opportunity to finish out the season. Personally, after digging through the quick analysis of our position, I feel far better about our current position than I did a few days ago. Currently, ESPN has our odds @ 38.3% chance at making the playoffs while the Rockies who currently hold the final playoff slot have a 34.5% chance. As always, it is as simple as winning games...and if we can get back to .500ish, I think the odds are high that we snag a postseason spot.
23 games remaining - 09/03/2020
NL Central 1st - -6 Games
NL Central 2nd - -2.5 Games
NL Final Playoff slot - -2 Games