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Thread: 2020 Playoff Push

  1. #706
    he/him *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by NebraskaRed View Post
    Banned.
    Garlic is an overwhelming flavor that is best used to play second fiddle and I will not back down!


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  3. #707
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    Everything since terror twilight has been a disappointment.

    But Malkmus has two WS titles and a pennant or two since the Reds last won either.
    You’re cracked. His solo output is much better than the last two Pavement albums.

  4. #708
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    edit: finished the vid. Rusty got recycled
    They can remake him, better than he was before.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  5. #709
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    I'm going to dance around the FCB show in this thread and think about some tiebreaker scenarios. It seems like the Reds are in pretty good shape. First, here are the scenarios for two way ties (I'm just going to skip three way ties for now):

    1) Head-to-Head - only relevant for teams in the same division.
    2) Intra-division record - the first scenario for two teams in different divisions. Reds are 21-19.
    3) Intra-division winning percentage in the last 20 games. Reds are 12-8 (thank you, Pirates)

    So the NL Central is pretty straightforward in a two-way tie. St. Louis has the tiebreaker vs. the Reds, but the Reds have the tiebreaker vs. the Brewers.

    I'm going to take a stab at the others, and I may miss something but here goes ...

    For Reds vs. Marlins, if the Marlins lose to the Braves then the Reds automatically win the tiebreaker via #2 above. If the Marlins beat the Braves, they go to #3 above where I believe the Marlins win the tiebreaker. Short story - we need the Braves to win tonight.

    For Reds vs. Phillies, both teams are 21-19 via #2 above so we go to #3. Reds win that tiebreaker.

    For Reds vs. Giants, this one should automatically go the Reds. The only way the Giants can tie the Reds at 21-19 is by sweeping the Padres all four games. If the Padres win even 1 out of 4, then the tiebreaker automatically goes to the Reds. If the Giants sweep, then the Giants would still lose the #3 tiebreaker to the Reds.

    For three way ties:

    If it's Reds/Cards/Brewers, my understanding is the tiebreaker would go Cards-Reds-Brewers. This scenario comes into play if the Reds lose 2 of 3 to Minnesota and Milwaukee wins 3 of 5 vs. St. Louis.

    And I'm reaching here, because I haven't dug through the specifics, but if the Reds are in a three way tie with any combo of the Brewers/Phillies/Marlins/Giants, then I think we win the first tiebreaker among all of them except the Marlins ... unless the Marlins lose tonight. Then we've got all of them.

    Essentially, the only teams that got us are St. Louis and Miami, if Miami wins tonight. We've got everyone else. If Miami loses tonight, we've got them too.

    Now someone please fact check all of this.

    If this is actually correct then that Braves/Marlins game is potentially very important. We really need the Braves to win.
    This is great, thanks.

    One of the writers tweeted that, with today’s Giants’ loss, Reds have the tiebreaker over the Giants.

    I haven’t dug into the numbers, except that Giants already have 19 losses, same as Reds, in their division.

    Again, very helpful post.

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  7. #710
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Cards lead Brewers 3-1. Fourth inning.

    I’m rooting for them both to lose. But since that’s impossible, it’s best for Reds to root for Cards.

    If Reds can close out the Brewers and Phils for the wild card, Reds are in the playoffs.

    Reds’ magic number to close out the Brew is 3. Reds’ magic number to beat out the Phils as WC is 2.

    This isn’t air tight because Phils could finish second in East, but still seems most likely and easiest path to playoffs for Reds.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-24-2020 at 10:14 PM.

  8. #711
    Probably not Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Fangraphs has us at 88.5 percent after giants loss, which would include remaining strength of schedule.

    Very cool considering how low we were 2 weeks ago.

    Just gotta taaaaaap it in.


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  10. #712
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I’ve written books, raised two remarkably successful kids, and remained married for 25 years. I have tremendous success and joy in my life.
    For the record, I once had a threesome with Halle Barry and Jennifer Aniston, while eating a pastrami sandwich and watching the Reds on TV.


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  11. #713
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    2020 Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    For the record, I once had a threesome with Halle Barry and Jennifer Aniston, while eating a pastrami sandwich and watching the Reds on TV.


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    Can unequivocally say I’ve seen this guy multitask, but never eat pastrami. That’s the dead give away that this is a fib.


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  13. #714
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Cards lead Brewers 3-1. Fourth inning.

    I’m rooting for them both to lose. But since that’s impossible, it’s best for Reds to root for Cards.

    If Reds can close out the Brewers and Phils for the wild card, Reds are in the playoffs.

    Reds’ magic number to close out the Brew is 3. Reds’ magic number to beat out the Phils as WC is 2.

    This isn’t air tight because Phils could finish second in East, but still seems most likely and easiest path to playoffs for Reds.
    feeling greedy...if we could snag that 2nd in NL Central slot which will likely be the 5th seed....we will have finished with a wild card ticket in the non-expanded playoff which was truly our goal before they announced the expansion days before the season began.
    “The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.”
    ― Marcus Aurelius

  14. #715
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by adkindo View Post
    feeling greedy...if we could snag that 2nd in NL Central slot which will likely be the 5th seed....we will have finished with a wild card ticket in the non-expanded playoff which was truly our goal before they announced the expansion days before the season began.
    Here’s the difficulty of the second Central spot.

    If Reds lose 2 to Twins, they’ll have 30 losses.

    Cards now only have 26 losses.

    Cards would need 5 more losses this season for Reds to catch them and get second spot. (Cards with tiebreaker.)

    Possible, sure, and maybe Reds do better against Twins - but the wild card route is more likely.

  15. #716
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    For the record, I once had a threesome with Halle Barry and Jennifer Aniston, while eating a pastrami sandwich and watching the Reds on TV.


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    How was the pastrami sandwich?
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  17. #717
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Here’s the difficulty of the second Central spot.

    If Reds lose 2 to Twins, they’ll have 30 losses.

    Cards now only have 26 losses.

    Cards would need 5 more losses this season for Reds to catch them and get second spot. (Cards with tiebreaker.)

    Possible, sure, but the wild card route is more likely.
    I could be wrong, but I believe everything is decided by winning percentage, considering the irregular schedule.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  18. #718
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I could be wrong, but I believe everything is decided by winning percentage, considering the irregular schedule.
    If it impacts who makes playoffs, Cards will play next Monday two makeup games in Detroit. Then everybody would finish with 60 games played.

    If it only impacts seeding, then Cards won’t play those extra games. That’s your “winning percentage” scenario.

    In any event, as the Fangraphs and other playoff odds show, the chances are greater that Reds make the playoffs as a wild card.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-24-2020 at 10:44 PM.

  19. #719
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    If a team makes it to the 2nd round of the playoffs, how many starters will be needed in the rotation? I assume at least 4 (if they play all 5 games) since there are no days off during the 2nd round?
    “The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.”
    ― Marcus Aurelius

  20. #720
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    Re: 2020 Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    Everything since terror twilight has been a disappointment.

    But Malkmus has two WS titles and a pennant or two since the Reds last won either.
    I almost rear ended him last fall, he drives recklessly... but I so do I sometimes


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