Reds stats after 45 games, 2020

[Kc61]

Three quarters of the 60-game season complete. Reds finish third quarter at 7-8, following 7-8 and 6-9 for Q1 and Q2. Reds now 20-25, trailing Cards by 2.5 and Brewers by 1.5 in race for second Central playoff spot. Reds also 3 back for final wild spot trailing four teams. Reds 12-14 on road (including one game counted as "home") and 8-11 at home. 10 of final 13 at home presents opportunity but uphill fight. Reds -25 RS/RA, were -3 after Q2. Reds 6-7 in one run games, not great but in normal range as compared with 2019.

Offense - Reds at .211/.310/.400/.710, a slight drop off from Q2. OPS fell from 10th to 12th in NL. BA worst in MLB. Using wRC+ (league adjusted, 100 league average), Reds at 88, 25th in MLB. Reds with highest walk rate in NL, 11.1% and fourth highest BB/K rate. Reds ISO power is sixth in NL, .189, and tied for 4th-5th in HRs, 66. But Reds with lowest BABIP in MLB, .241, Reds with fly ball style, fourth lowest GB/FB ratio in NL, 1.08. Reds pull % is fifth highest in league at 42.8% and oppo % 11th at 22.5% Bottom line Reds have scored 172 runs, third fewest in league, only Cards (fewer games) and Pirates with less.

Using 100 wRC+ as the break point, Winker (152), Casali, Castellanos, Senzel, Suarez, Moustakas at or above 100. Votto on the cusp at 97. But long list at 88 wRC+ or below - in descending order Galvis, Aquino, Akiyama, Barnhart, Davidson (sent down), Farmer, Goodwin (as Red), Payton (sent down), Ervin (DFA), VanMeter (traded), Colon (sent down), Garcia, Jankowski (sent down). Hotter batters over last 14 days Akiyama 157 wRC+, Votto 140, Casali 139, Suarez 124, Moustakas 122. Winker 17th MLB in average EV (50 PA min) at 92.7. Cast 30th in Barrel % 15.8.

Pitching - Reds team ERA now 4.14, fourth in NL, though Fangraphs shows slightly higher 4.21 (small discrepancy over earned v unearned runs). Last time was 3.83 so some slippage. Fangraphs has FIP at 4.06, fourth in NL. Pitching fWAR tied for league lead with Brewers at 6.8. Reds starters with league best fWAR at 6, well ahead of second place teams, and low ERA of 3.73, FIP of 3.62. Bullpen 7-6 with 5.01 ERA, 4.79 FIP, and 8th best NL 0.8 fWAR. Relief FIP almost identical as last report, 4.78. Over last 14 days pen is 4.29 ERA, 4.33 FIP, with 3-1 W-L.

Bauer with 1.74 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 51.2 innings, only 28 hits, 0.79 WHIP, 12.37 K/9, 2.26 BB/9. Castillo, though 2-5, with 3.44 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 11.35 K/9, 3.44 B/9, low HR rate of 0.69. Luis with 59.1% GB rate. Gray with a couple of subpar starts up to 3.94 ERA but still 2.93 FIP, 11.82 K rate, high 4.14 BB rate, good 47.8% ground ball rate. Mahle with 37 IP, 3.89 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 10.95 K rate, 3.16 BB rate, but 1.46 HR rate too high. Antone now in rotation, 25 IP, 2.49 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 11.72 K rate, 3.91 BB rate. Disco with high ERA not yet on track.

Main relievers (15 or more outings) led by Garrett with 1.93 ERA, 2.69 FIP, Sims 2.12 ERA, 3.42 FIP. Iglesias 4.11 ERA but 2.54 FIP. All with high K rates, although Sims with 3.71 BB rate. Lorenzen 5.23 ERA, 7.40 K rate, 6.10 BB rate, though results a bit better over last 14 days. Nate Jones leads team with 17 outings, -0.1 fWAR and high ERA/FIP.

Fielding - Fangraphs Def Reds team fourth from bottom of NL at -5.1. DRS Reds -5, 11th in NL. Barnhart 20th in NL individual Fangraphs Def with 2.0 rating. Galvis at short 1.6 Def. Garcia and Winker in smaller samples in positive territory. Votto -5.1 and Castellanos -3.1 using that Def stat.

Let's see if Reds can have a hot finish and approach or even reach .500.

[Kc61]

Some takeaways from the stats review -

1. Reds offensive style probably similar to design in that walks, power emphasized. BABIP obviously disappointing as discussed in threads. Bottom half of position group did not contribute enough.

2. Starting pitching for 2021 partially dependent on Bauer, but big positive is Mahle and Antone as part of equation at low cost.

3. Some good bullpen performances, Bradley should help, but another depth problem. Jones and Lorenzen, despite iffy results, among only five guys with more than 9 outings. Too much filler.

4. Defense a concern, Reds will need to be inventive to try and improve given LTCs probably locking some guys in.

[zigbeenuthouse]

Corrections in a few areas like defense and hitting into DPs and raising BA a bit will lead to wins.

[Kc61]

Corrections in a few areas like defense and hitting into DPs and raising BA a bit will lead to wins.

Fair summary, some more quality depth is important too.

[zigbeenuthouse]

Fair summary, some more quality depth is important too.

Sure, for next year the FO has to add some quality in terms of those able to play off the bench. I was essentially referring to this season.

[mth123]

Changing the team around is going to be difficult unless they are willing to spend even more. The HR guys who are iffy defenders are Suarez, Moose, Castellanos, Votto and Winker. Four of those guys are locked into long term deals three of which are probably not moveable. Suarez could probably be moved and Winker is not locked in. I'm coming around to the idea of trading Suarez, but they'd be selling low and they really need a haul in return. This team is starting to look like the Orioles with a lot of under-performing big dollar guys. I might trade Winker with the idea of getting a more all around player who can play middle infield, but I'd guess it will be difficult without kicking in something else.

The best play may be to bring them all back and expect them to hit better. Votto's decline probably continues, but Suarez, Castellanos and Moose should all hit better. Shogo is coming around. They'll probably get more out of Senzel. Winker has always hit. Scoring more runs would cover a lot of sins with the defense and the bullpen. I'd let Disco and Galvis walk and deal Barnhart. Use the freed up money for a raise for Bauer and try to find a SS who is either better or at least cheaper as the stopgap for Garcia. I'd make Stephenson and Casali the catching tandem.

The Bullpen probably needs some new bodies. I'd look to deal Miley and Lorenzen. Iggy, Garrett, Bradley and Sims seems like a decent core. I'd look to add another late inning lefty. I'd keep Stephenson as a wild card. Assuming Disco goes and Bauer stays, the rotation would be Bauer, Gray, Castillo, Mahle and Antone. I'd find a vet to compete for the back end with the odd man out becoming a swing man.

[zigbeenuthouse]

Bauer is gone. He is not coming back and Reds are not in a position to come close to what he will get. I don’t think he is happy anyway. Dodgers or Yankees or maybe padres or Phillies will be teams to watch . I could see cubs in mix.

[Kc61]

Changing the team around is going to be difficult unless they are willing to spend even more. The HR guys who are iffy defenders are Suarez, Moose, Castellanos, Votto and Winker. Four of those guys are locked into long term deals three of which are probably not moveable. Suarez could probably be moved and Winker is not locked in. I'm coming around to the idea of trading Suarez, but they'd be selling low and they really need a haul in return. This team is starting to look like the Orioles with a lot of under-performing big dollar guys. I might trade Winker with the idea of getting a more all around player who can play middle infield, but I'd guess it will be difficult without kicking in something else.

The best play may be to bring them all back and expect them to hit better. Votto's decline probably continues, but Suarez, Castellanos and Moose should all hit better. Shogo is coming around. They'll probably get more out of Senzel. Scoring more runs would cover a lot of sins with the defense and the bullpen. I'd let Disco and Galvis walk and deal Barnhart. Use the freed up money for a raise for Bauer and try to find a SS who is either better or at least cheaper as the stopgap for Garcia. I'd make Stephenson and Casali the catching tandem.

The Bullpen probably needs some new bodies. I'd look to deal Miley and Lorenzen. Iggy, Garrett, Bradley and Sims seems like a decent core. I'd look to add another late inning lefty. I'd keep Stephenson as a wild card. Assuming Disco goes and Bauer stays, the rotation would be Bauer, Gray, Castillo, Mahle and Antone. I'd find a vet to compete for the back end with the odd man out becoming a swing man.

Reds can improve the offense by keeping the top end guys but adding some league average bats as modest additions, including from within.

They got little offense out of starting catcher, shortstop and from Senzel’s and Moustakas’ injury replacements. Instead of replacement level guys at these spots, add some league average hitters. The Goodwin deal was an example, he’s league average despite his slow start.

Same with the bullpen. Instead of Raley, Jones and Thornburg types, get some average quality MLB guys.

Bolster the bottom half of the roster.

[mth123]

Bauer is gone. He is not coming back and Reds are not in a position to come close to what he will get. I don’t think he is happy anyway. Dodgers or Yankees or maybe padres or Phillies will be teams to watch . I could see cubs in mix.

What's he going to cost? He's already making $17 Million. With the money they could free by dealing Miley and Barnhart and letting Disco and Galvis walk, they could easily bump that by $10 Million per year. Even more if necessary. I don't think he's getting $30 Million per year.

[zigbeenuthouse]

What's he going to cost? He's already making $17 Million. With the money they could free by dealing Miley and Barnhart and letting Disco and Galvis walk, they could easily bump that by $10 Million per year. Even more if necessary. I don't think he's getting $30 Million per year.

Not sure what he gets. We’ve seen reds tie up money before and it didn’t work due injuries. Bauer only will sign one year deals he said. Reds would like that part. Again, I doubt he comes back as a team may give him 25-30.

[mth123]

Not sure what he gets. We’ve seen reds tie up money before and it didn’t work due injuries. Bauer only will sign one year deals he said. Reds would like that part. Again, I doubt he comes back as a team may give him 25-30.

But the reds could give him that much fairly easily and they should.

[zigbeenuthouse]

But the reds could give him that much fairly easily and they should.

What has kept them from already offering a deal?

[mth123]

What has kept them from already offering a deal?

How do you know they haven't?

[zigbeenuthouse]

How do you know they haven't?

He’s unsigned. Really makes my point he’s gone because if they offered he must of said no. If he wanted to return and Reds made this great offer you say they could do then he’d be signed. He’s not returning or it would already be done and announced.

[zigbeenuthouse]

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...cy/4891745002/

Reds have not offered and Bauer would not entertain one anyway because he has ideas he first wants to explore with other teams.