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Thread: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

  1. #1
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    This team was floundering all season, I like the Bradley/ Goodwin acquisitions but IMO Bauer should have been dealt as he's not gonna accept the QO, and at best we get a top 35- 50 pick for him in next years draft. I know the Twins were interested in him, what were any other rumors, players, etc?

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    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Wouldn’t have mattered. We’ve still got pocket full of magic beans from the last trades we made.
    I'm just going to go find a cash machine.

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    The issue is you have no clue what teams were offering for him.

    For all you know, the potential draft pick is more valuable than the prospect(s) they were offered in return.

  6. #4
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by TheBigLebowski View Post
    Wouldn’t have mattered. We’ve still got pocket full of magic beans from the last trades we made.
    Your right!! this ownership group has no plan on how to run a successful franchise, the Padres, Rays, and Braves are the teams I'm jealous of!!

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    We're finally getting to the point where hindsight might be coming into focus.... and if all goes badly, this scorching hot take will age well.

    But let's be sensible: every trade, you're giving something away and getting something back, and if you don't think what you're getting back is worth the loss, you don't do it. And in 2020, this is NOT a simple bit of algebra where the trade return for Bauer has to be better than the expected return of a compensation pick.

    In 2020, it becomes full blown differential calculus, because you don't want to fold your hand too soon, because the playoffs are still a realistic option for all but a handful of teams. Suddenly, the return for Bauer needs to go up, because he's worth more to us this year, not just in terms of maybe making the playoffs, but then possibly advancing on the strength of our top 3 starters. Unless other teams were offering a major haul that moves the needle for a FUTURE playoff run into the "Highly Probable" territory, I think you have to keep Bauer and roll the dice on this season's flukiness.

    And also: to me, the QO being rejected isn't even the problem. If Bauer wanted to stay here, I think he and the Reds would work it out in a longer term deal. But all Bauer's reasons for wanting to be here (forward thinking, driveline-friendly front office/coaching staff that appreciates and nurtures his new school approach) are all but offset by the fact that his 2 year experience has led him to believe that the Reds have a losing culture. And that guy wants to win, above all else.

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopdaddy67 View Post
    The issue is you have no clue what teams were offering for him.

    For all you know, the potential draft pick is more valuable than the prospect(s) they were offered in return.
    Based on what teams got for their players this trade deadline, I am certain the Reds wouldn’t have gotten more this offseason than the draft pick they will get for him when he leaves.
    Were going to get the pitching. -Bob Castellini
    You got the pitching, now what? - Reds fans

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Based on what teams got for their players this trade deadline, I am certain the Reds wouldn’t have gotten more this offseason than the draft pick they will get for him when he leaves.
    The difference is probably how close to the majors they are.

    A draft pick that is 4 to 5 years away from his debut is different then if you get a little lesser talent that is maybe 2 years out. But either way, with a shortened season such as this, the compensation for maybe 5 Bauer starts wasn't going to be a lot that is for sure.

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  11. #8
    Probably not Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Reds did grab guys with another year of control, and kept Bauer who will return a good draft pick.

    Strategy was a bunch of half measures, which I think is reasonable based on where they were in the standings and expectations going in, and theoretical true talent level.


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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopdaddy67 View Post
    The issue is you have no clue what teams were offering for him.

    For all you know, the potential draft pick is more valuable than the prospect(s) they were offered in return.
    I disagree. Bauer is an ace. In the expanded playoffs, adding an ace is a huge difference maker.
    Someone would have given up a lot for Bauer.
    A compensation pick for losing a free agent has very little value. Look at the Reds' history. I am trying to remember what compensation picks actually worked out. I think Lorenzen and Winker might have been comp picks, I am not sure, but there's
    scores of other guys (as well as 1st and 2nd round regular picks) that have flamed out.

    It would not have been difficult to flip Bauer for a couple of prospects that would have at least been solid MLB players (ie Senzel level, not stars, but solid starters). When you trade for prospects , you are getting guys with some minor league time, it's a lot
    safer bet than the draft.. The prospects are easier to project.

    Sure, there's a chance the Reds might have screwed it up, but I like the odds better than a compensation pick.

    Bottom line is that Dick Williams can't admit he made a mistake this year. So instead of cutting his losses by trying to sell Bauer and perhaps other players, he doubled down and added two players in a hopeless season. At least he didn't give up much
    to get those guys, and maybe those guys help in 2021, but it was a big miscalculation, which we will regret next year.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    What are the odds for Bauer re-signing with the Reds? Are the Reds willing to pay his market value? Would Bauer stay if the money is right? The tone of RZ overall is that he won’t come back. Is this the consensus?
    Its not the thing you fling, its the fling itself.

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    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    What are the odds for Bauer re-signing with the Reds? Are the Reds willing to pay his market value? Would Bauer stay if the money is right? The tone of RZ overall is that he wont come back. Is this the consensus?
    I think they have a chance. The Reds support his style and methods, which was a problem in Cleveland, and have enough money they can cut to bump his salary enough. Galvis, Barnhart, Disco, Lorenzen and Miley are all guys they should be looking to move or let walk to free some money (roughly $25 Million in annual salary). Antone, Mahle, Bradley and Stephenson make al but Galvis expendable and the Reds clearly don't like Galvis at SS. Bump Bauer $10 to $15 Million and use the rest to bring in a SS stopgap and a lefty reliever.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think they have a chance. The Reds support his style and methods, which was a problem in Cleveland, and have enough money they can cut to bump his salary enough. Galvis, Barnhart, Disco, Lorenzen and Miley are all guys they should be looking to move or let walk to free some money (roughly $25 Million in annual salary). Antone, Mahle, Bradley and Stephenson make al but Galvis expendable and the Reds clearly don't like Galvis at SS. Bump Bauer $10 to $15 Million and use the rest to bring in a SS stopgap and a lefty reliever.
    Nope, money isn't the issue as much as winning. And that means dealing with Votto which doesn't look like management is ready to do. Slim to no chance you see Bauer back.

    It will be a comp pick somewhere around 90-100 for the Reds

  19. #13
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    It's hard for me to know what motivates Bauer.
    Is it the biggest check? If so, the Reds are out of it.
    If he truly likes the Reds, as mth says, and I believe it. The Reds have a chance.
    Bauer might not want to risk going to another team and being told what to do for a bigger check.

    Another issue is if Bauer truly wants to go year to year (Reds have a chance) or if someone is
    going to make him a huge multiyear deal that he can't refuse (Reds have no chance).
    If one of the big market teams offer him 10 years at 26-30 million a year, that's going to be
    hard for even Bauer to turn down.

    If Bauer wants to win, well, he's likely gone from the Reds too. He's not dumb. He knows this
    team is a mess now, and has some bad contracts that will take time to recover from. Of course,
    it's possible some of those bad contracts will have bounce back years in 2021, but if he really
    wants to win, he can go to a big market team and be almost guaranteed of contending.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  20. #14
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I disagree. Bauer is an ace. In the expanded playoffs, adding an ace is a huge difference maker.
    Someone would have given up a lot for Bauer.
    A compensation pick for losing a free agent has very little value. Look at the Reds' history. I am trying to remember what compensation picks actually worked out. I think Lorenzen and Winker might have been comp picks, I am not sure, but there's
    scores of other guys (as well as 1st and 2nd round regular picks) that have flamed out.

    It would not have been difficult to flip Bauer for a couple of prospects that would have at least been solid MLB players (ie Senzel level, not stars, but solid starters). When you trade for prospects , you are getting guys with some minor league time, it's a lot
    safer bet than the draft.. The prospects are easier to project.

    Sure, there's a chance the Reds might have screwed it up, but I like the odds better than a compensation pick.

    Bottom line is that Dick Williams can't admit he made a mistake this year. So instead of cutting his losses by trying to sell Bauer and perhaps other players, he doubled down and added two players in a hopeless season. At least he didn't give up much
    to get those guys, and maybe those guys help in 2021, but it was a big miscalculation, which we will regret next year.
    Maybe a team would have given up a nice haul, but we don't know. With that said, teams have been very reluctant to give up solid prospects for rentals in recent years. It wasn't going to look better when you're only getting a handful of starts from a guy.

    Also, you're ignoring that Castellini may not have allowed Williams to even explore selling at the deadline. In fact, I tend to think that is very likely what happened, so they added non-rentals for a relatively low cost with next year in mind.

  21. #15
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Nope, money isn't the issue as much as winning. And that means dealing with Votto which doesn't look like management is ready to do. Slim to no chance you see Bauer back.

    It will be a comp pick somewhere around 90-100 for the Reds
    Too bad the new guys from the last 2 years weren't able to come in and take control of the clubhouse.

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