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Thread: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

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  1. #1
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    This team was floundering all season, I like the Bradley/ Goodwin acquisitions but IMO Bauer should have been dealt as he's not gonna accept the QO, and at best we get a top 35- 50 pick for him in next years draft. I know the Twins were interested in him, what were any other rumors, players, etc?

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  3. #2
    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Wouldn’t have mattered. We’ve still got pocket full of magic beans from the last trades we made.
    “The crows seem to be calling my name,” thought Caw.

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by TheBigLebowski View Post
    Wouldn’t have mattered. We’ve still got pocket full of magic beans from the last trades we made.
    Your right!! this ownership group has no plan on how to run a successful franchise, the Padres, Rays, and Braves are the teams I'm jealous of!!

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    The issue is you have no clue what teams were offering for him.

    For all you know, the potential draft pick is more valuable than the prospect(s) they were offered in return.

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopdaddy67 View Post
    The issue is you have no clue what teams were offering for him.

    For all you know, the potential draft pick is more valuable than the prospect(s) they were offered in return.
    Based on what teams got for their players this trade deadline, I am certain the Reds wouldn’t have gotten more this offseason than the draft pick they will get for him when he leaves.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Based on what teams got for their players this trade deadline, I am certain the Reds wouldn’t have gotten more this offseason than the draft pick they will get for him when he leaves.
    The difference is probably how close to the majors they are.

    A draft pick that is 4 to 5 years away from his debut is different then if you get a little lesser talent that is maybe 2 years out. But either way, with a shortened season such as this, the compensation for maybe 5 Bauer starts wasn't going to be a lot that is for sure.

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  9. #7
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopdaddy67 View Post
    The issue is you have no clue what teams were offering for him.

    For all you know, the potential draft pick is more valuable than the prospect(s) they were offered in return.
    I disagree. Bauer is an ace. In the expanded playoffs, adding an ace is a huge difference maker.
    Someone would have given up a lot for Bauer.
    A compensation pick for losing a free agent has very little value. Look at the Reds' history. I am trying to remember what compensation picks actually worked out. I think Lorenzen and Winker might have been comp picks, I am not sure, but there's
    scores of other guys (as well as 1st and 2nd round regular picks) that have flamed out.

    It would not have been difficult to flip Bauer for a couple of prospects that would have at least been solid MLB players (ie Senzel level, not stars, but solid starters). When you trade for prospects , you are getting guys with some minor league time, it's a lot
    safer bet than the draft.. The prospects are easier to project.

    Sure, there's a chance the Reds might have screwed it up, but I like the odds better than a compensation pick.

    Bottom line is that Dick Williams can't admit he made a mistake this year. So instead of cutting his losses by trying to sell Bauer and perhaps other players, he doubled down and added two players in a hopeless season. At least he didn't give up much
    to get those guys, and maybe those guys help in 2021, but it was a big miscalculation, which we will regret next year.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I disagree. Bauer is an ace. In the expanded playoffs, adding an ace is a huge difference maker.
    Someone would have given up a lot for Bauer.
    A compensation pick for losing a free agent has very little value. Look at the Reds' history. I am trying to remember what compensation picks actually worked out. I think Lorenzen and Winker might have been comp picks, I am not sure, but there's
    scores of other guys (as well as 1st and 2nd round regular picks) that have flamed out.

    It would not have been difficult to flip Bauer for a couple of prospects that would have at least been solid MLB players (ie Senzel level, not stars, but solid starters). When you trade for prospects , you are getting guys with some minor league time, it's a lot
    safer bet than the draft.. The prospects are easier to project.

    Sure, there's a chance the Reds might have screwed it up, but I like the odds better than a compensation pick.

    Bottom line is that Dick Williams can't admit he made a mistake this year. So instead of cutting his losses by trying to sell Bauer and perhaps other players, he doubled down and added two players in a hopeless season. At least he didn't give up much
    to get those guys, and maybe those guys help in 2021, but it was a big miscalculation, which we will regret next year.
    Maybe a team would have given up a nice haul, but we don't know. With that said, teams have been very reluctant to give up solid prospects for rentals in recent years. It wasn't going to look better when you're only getting a handful of starts from a guy.

    Also, you're ignoring that Castellini may not have allowed Williams to even explore selling at the deadline. In fact, I tend to think that is very likely what happened, so they added non-rentals for a relatively low cost with next year in mind.

  11. #9
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopdaddy67 View Post
    Maybe a team would have given up a nice haul, but we don't know. With that said, teams have been very reluctant to give up solid prospects for rentals in recent years. It wasn't going to look better when you're only getting a handful of starts from a guy.

    Also, you're ignoring that Castellini may not have allowed Williams to even explore selling at the deadline. In fact, I tend to think that is very likely what happened, so they added non-rentals for a relatively low cost with next year in mind.
    Great starting pitchers get traded almost every year at the deadline for a better haul than a compensation pick.

    It's the GM's job to convince ownership what's in the best interest of the club.
    Jim Bowden talked ownership into bringing Greg Vaughn in, as well as other moves.
    Dick Williams can't have a talk with his dad and tell him that trading Bauer in a lost season will
    make the Reds better in the future? That doesn't seem like too much to ask of Williams.
    I mean, there's no fans in the stands , the TV money is set. The Reds are having a bad season.
    90% of the fans would not even notice Bauer was gone to be honest. I mean seriously, I don't
    think ownership is that dumb to not let Bauer be traded.

    Dick Williams is trying to save face. That's why he added two players. He's hoping the team
    finishes strong so he's not as embarrassed. That's why Bauer was not shopped.
    The only other possibility is that the Reds are super confident they can bring Bauer back next year..
    Obviously, if they resign Bauer, I'm ok with them not trading him this year.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  12. #10
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I disagree. Bauer is an ace. In the expanded playoffs, adding an ace is a huge difference maker.
    Someone would have given up a lot for Bauer.
    A compensation pick for losing a free agent has very little value. Look at the Reds' history. I am trying to remember what compensation picks actually worked out. I think Lorenzen and Winker might have been comp picks, I am not sure, but there's
    scores of other guys (as well as 1st and 2nd round regular picks) that have flamed out.

    It would not have been difficult to flip Bauer for a couple of prospects that would have at least been solid MLB players (ie Senzel level, not stars, but solid starters). When you trade for prospects , you are getting guys with some minor league time, it's a lot
    safer bet than the draft.. The prospects are easier to project.

    Nick Senzel was a top 5 in MLB prospect when he was promoted to the majors (i.e. when it should have been easiest prorject his value). When you try to project prospects, even close to ready prospects, the "solid but not star" prosects often turn into replacement level players, and the actual projected stars, like Senzel, turn into...well, Nick Senzel.

    jvs

  13. #11
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by PTjvs View Post
    Nick Senzel was a top 5 in MLB prospect when he was promoted to the majors (i.e. when it should have been easiest prorject his value). When you try to project prospects, even close to ready prospects, the "solid but not star" prosects often turn into replacement level players, and the actual projected stars, like Senzel, turn into...well, Nick Senzel.

    jvs
    My point is that Bauer could be traded for better and more projectable prospects than a single comp pick.
    Just look at Reds' history, how relativeliy few comp picks became useful players. Very few.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    My point is that Bauer could be traded for better and more projectable prospects than a single comp pick.
    Just look at Reds' history, how relativeliy few comp picks became useful players. Very few.
    The Reds have actually done well in this area:

    Trammel - turned into Bauer
    Downs - turned into wood/puig
    Todd Frazier
    Michael Lorenzen
    Brad Boxberger
    Jesse Winker

    There have been a few misses along the way, but the pick definitely has value, and with the Reds now a game out of the playoffs there would be a lot of bad optics around waiving the white flag at the deadline for a modestly better deadline package.

    This was a weird year with few teams willing to absorb cash due to budgetary constraints due to Covid that no teams were willing to really move good prospects for talent. It was a tough sell accross baseball, not just with the Reds’ internal hierarchy.

    I’m going to enjoy the ride of playoff chase, possibility of resigning, and at worst comp pick rather than dream of another lottery ticket.


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  16. #13
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I disagree. Bauer is an ace. In the expanded playoffs, adding an ace is a huge difference maker.
    Someone would have given up a lot for Bauer.
    A compensation pick for losing a free agent has very little value. Look at the Reds' history. I am trying to remember what compensation picks actually worked out. I think Lorenzen and Winker might have been comp picks, I am not sure, but there's
    scores of other guys (as well as 1st and 2nd round regular picks) that have flamed out.

    It would not have been difficult to flip Bauer for a couple of prospects that would have at least been solid MLB players (ie Senzel level, not stars, but solid starters). When you trade for prospects , you are getting guys with some minor league time, it's a lot
    safer bet than the draft.. The prospects are easier to project.

    Sure, there's a chance the Reds might have screwed it up, but I like the odds better than a compensation pick.

    Bottom line is that Dick Williams can't admit he made a mistake this year. So instead of cutting his losses by trying to sell Bauer and perhaps other players, he doubled down and added two players in a hopeless season. At least he didn't give up much
    to get those guys, and maybe those guys help in 2021, but it was a big miscalculation, which we will regret next year.
    The Reds may end up missing the playoffs, but I disagree with the bolded.

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  18. #14
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    We're finally getting to the point where hindsight might be coming into focus.... and if all goes badly, this scorching hot take will age well.

    But let's be sensible: every trade, you're giving something away and getting something back, and if you don't think what you're getting back is worth the loss, you don't do it. And in 2020, this is NOT a simple bit of algebra where the trade return for Bauer has to be better than the expected return of a compensation pick.

    In 2020, it becomes full blown differential calculus, because you don't want to fold your hand too soon, because the playoffs are still a realistic option for all but a handful of teams. Suddenly, the return for Bauer needs to go up, because he's worth more to us this year, not just in terms of maybe making the playoffs, but then possibly advancing on the strength of our top 3 starters. Unless other teams were offering a major haul that moves the needle for a FUTURE playoff run into the "Highly Probable" territory, I think you have to keep Bauer and roll the dice on this season's flukiness.

    And also: to me, the QO being rejected isn't even the problem. If Bauer wanted to stay here, I think he and the Reds would work it out in a longer term deal. But all Bauer's reasons for wanting to be here (forward thinking, driveline-friendly front office/coaching staff that appreciates and nurtures his new school approach) are all but offset by the fact that his 2 year experience has led him to believe that the Reds have a losing culture. And that guy wants to win, above all else.

  19. #15
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Reds did grab guys with another year of control, and kept Bauer who will return a good draft pick.

    Strategy was a bunch of half measures, which I think is reasonable based on where they were in the standings and expectations going in, and theoretical true talent level.


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