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Thread: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

  1. #16
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    Too bad the new guys from the last 2 years weren't able to come in and take control of the clubhouse.

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    Management has to back them and that doesn't seem to have happened. You don't have a coup with out some muscle.


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  3. #17
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Management has to back them and that doesn't seem to have happened. You don't have a coup with out some muscle.
    Oh well. Votto at least seemed good at leading choreographed HR celebrations with Geno and Winker, if nothing else

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    It's hard for me to know what motivates Bauer.
    Is it the biggest check? If so, the Reds are out of it.
    If he truly likes the Reds, as mth says, and I believe it. The Reds have a chance.
    Bauer might not want to risk going to another team and being told what to do for a bigger check.

    Another issue is if Bauer truly wants to go year to year (Reds have a chance) or if someone is
    going to make him a huge multiyear deal that he can't refuse (Reds have no chance).
    If one of the big market teams offer him 10 years at 26-30 million a year, that's going to be
    hard for even Bauer to turn down.

    If Bauer wants to win, well, he's likely gone from the Reds too. He's not dumb. He knows this
    team is a mess now, and has some bad contracts that will take time to recover from. Of course,
    it's possible some of those bad contracts will have bounce back years in 2021, but if he really
    wants to win, he can go to a big market team and be almost guaranteed of contending.
    Getting paid a market rate on the money side, but he wants flexibility more than anything. Doesn't want to be stuck on a team like the Reds have been over the last 5 (or so) years for any amount of $$$'s. It will be a 1 year deal, most likely with a player only option for a second year that is way below market rate. That way the team agreeing to it knows he will not exercise it. It won't be multi year.

    He wants to play on a winning team, year in year out. And there is no guarantee when you sign long term that will happen. He is a fierce competitor and wants to spend his time in baseball competing for something versus just running out the string every August to collect the $$$$$.

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  6. #19
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I disagree. Bauer is an ace. In the expanded playoffs, adding an ace is a huge difference maker.
    Someone would have given up a lot for Bauer.
    A compensation pick for losing a free agent has very little value. Look at the Reds' history. I am trying to remember what compensation picks actually worked out. I think Lorenzen and Winker might have been comp picks, I am not sure, but there's
    scores of other guys (as well as 1st and 2nd round regular picks) that have flamed out.

    It would not have been difficult to flip Bauer for a couple of prospects that would have at least been solid MLB players (ie Senzel level, not stars, but solid starters). When you trade for prospects , you are getting guys with some minor league time, it's a lot
    safer bet than the draft.. The prospects are easier to project.

    Nick Senzel was a top 5 in MLB prospect when he was promoted to the majors (i.e. when it should have been easiest prorject his value). When you try to project prospects, even close to ready prospects, the "solid but not star" prosects often turn into replacement level players, and the actual projected stars, like Senzel, turn into...well, Nick Senzel.

    jvs

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    Getting paid a market rate on the money side, but he wants flexibility more than anything. Doesn't want to be stuck on a team like the Reds have been over the last 5 (or so) years for any amount of $$$'s. It will be a 1 year deal, most likely with a player only option for a second year that is way below market rate. That way the team agreeing to it knows he will not exercise it. It won't be multi year.

    He wants to play on a winning team, year in year out. And there is no guarantee when you sign long term that will happen. He is a fierce competitor and wants to spend his time in baseball competing for something versus just running out the string every August to collect the $$$$$.
    Rachel Luba?


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  9. #21
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    This continues to be a terrible take for multiple reasons...

    1 - They are (and were at the TDL) still close enough to making the playoffs to make a run at it. With a 1-2-3 of Gray, Bauer, and Castillo and a nice lineup (that while mostly underperforming could still be potent) it makes zero sense to not go for it. After years and years of cellar dwelling they finally have a talented team and now we want them to sell their best SP? For what? Another handful of prospects for the organization to developmentally fumble?

    2 - Bauer likes Cincinnati. That doesn't happen often. The Reds aren't typically on many big time FAs wish list as a small market club. The Reds have embraced his character and let him do and say as he pleases. Is winning (or lack of) an issue? Yes, but I also believe Bauer knows how much talent there is on that pitching staff (and team overall). So while I get that winning is important to him I believe his decision will be made on teams winning potential, which the Reds clearly have.

    3 - No LTC. This is where many have issues. While some see this as a "He can't be considered into future plans...He'll walk next year..." situation I see it as something that benefits the Reds. Any other FA of his caliber would cost the Reds a massive contract with a lot of years. This type of deal is extremely risky for a small market club. I think rolling the dice on Bauer staying in Cincinnati on short deals is worth sacrificing whatever return package he would bring the Reds.

    I fully understand that Bauer has/had good value on the TDL market and why some would want to flip him into future value. I was yelling from the mountain tops to trade Disco in '16 and Iggy in '17. The difference is those teams were not winning AND were not built to win. While the current team may not be winning as much as expected it is still built to win. You don't trade your best pitcher when you're in the position the Reds are in right now. We're 2.5 games out of the playoffs with 13 games to go and Bauer seeing starts vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Chicago, and at Minnesota. If the Reds are going to pull this off Trevor is going to be part of the reason.

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  11. #22
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    This continues to be a terrible take for multiple reasons...

    1 - They are (and were at the TDL) still close enough to making the playoffs to make a run at it. With a 1-2-3 of Gray, Bauer, and Castillo and a nice lineup (that while mostly underperforming could still be potent) it makes zero sense to not go for it. After years and years of cellar dwelling they finally have a talented team and now we want them to sell their best SP? For what? Another handful of prospects for the organization to developmentally fumble?

    2 - Bauer likes Cincinnati. That doesn't happen often. The Reds aren't typically on many big time FAs wish list as a small market club. The Reds have embraced his character and let him do and say as he pleases. Is winning (or lack of) an issue? Yes, but I also believe Bauer knows how much talent there is on that pitching staff (and team overall). So while I get that winning is important to him I believe his decision will be made on teams winning potential, which the Reds clearly have.

    3 - No LTC. This is where many have issues. While some see this as a "He can't be considered into future plans...He'll walk next year..." situation I see it as something that benefits the Reds. Any other FA of his caliber would cost the Reds a massive contract with a lot of years. This type of deal is extremely risky for a small market club. I think rolling the dice on Bauer staying in Cincinnati on short deals is worth sacrificing whatever return package he would bring the Reds.

    I fully understand that Bauer has/had good value on the TDL market and why some would want to flip him into future value. I was yelling from the mountain tops to trade Disco in '16 and Iggy in '17. The difference is those teams were not winning AND were not built to win. While the current team may not be winning as much as expected it is still built to win. You don't trade your best pitcher when you're in the position the Reds are in right now. We're 2.5 games out of the playoffs with 13 games to go and Bauer seeing starts vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Chicago, and at Minnesota. If the Reds are going to pull this off Trevor is going to be part of the reason.
    This is where I'm at. A white flag at the end of August would not have gone down well. Not after all the years of tanking that we've gone through.

    If Bauer, walks, the Reds not only get the comp pick, but they'll have $17 Million to sign another pitcher for the top part of the rotation. The Reds haven't been all that successful dealing for prospects. Jose Peraza has probably been the most successful. Cody Reed, Brandon Finnegan, Keury Mella, Rookie Davis... not much was really gained from any of them.

    Adam Duvall was OK for a couple years, then fell off and was turned into Sims which is good. The Reds seem to do better at those kinds of deals. Dealing guys who've lost value seems to return more than dealing guys who are All Stars. I don't know why. Even Desclafani, Castillo and Suarez were acquired for guys who were in an obvious state of decline. The Reds seem to make their best advances that way.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  13. #23
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    If the Reds actually sign Bauer this off season, they may control/get value him for 2 years if QO is still a thing after the next CBA.

    He does seem to like it in Cincinnati. Maybe it is time the Reds thought more about keeping quality instead of trading them for a future that always seems just a few more moves away.
    Use a Cocktail Stick!

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  15. #24
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Bauer has said over and over again that he only wants to sign one year deals. But that doesn't mean he doesn't want to re-sign with the Reds (although I wouldn't blame him if he didn't.) If it's just a one year deal, pretty much all 30 teams are in play. Even a team like the Pirates could sign him to a big money one year deal. But with no attendance revenue from this year and possibly for at least a part of next season. I would guess the RSNs are going want some givebacks for the games that weren't televised. Because if that I don't think there's going to be a lot of teams willing to hand out big contracts. Now he apparently likes working with Derek Johnson and co. and with Kyle Boddy and Driveline. But I don't know if Boddy would be available to work with him if Bauer is with another team.

    Bauer is definitely an ace but he does come with some baggage. He's very honest when asked questions. He has questioned authority on several occasions. Now fans are sympathetic towards him because his target is usually Manfred. He's the kind of guy who you like to have in your team but hate if you're a fan of another team or the actual team. His mouth and antics are great when the team is winning but they ring hollow to even his own team's fans when the team is losing. There are advantages to being on a one year deal. You're always trying your best for that next contract. However he's also looking out for himself more than the team. If he's got a sore arm, he may want to pitch through it to put up numbers for his next deal rather than taking it easy and resting due to the security of a long term deal.
    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I was wrong
    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Chip is right

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  17. #25
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    If Trevor Bauer could have fetched a return of say a Top 50 prospect Iíd at least listen.

    But I donít believe that for a second.

    So having said that, if we had traded Bauer, who is pitching today as the Reds go for a DH sweep that if done would get them within a game of the wildcard?

    Iím not a huge believer but you gotta go for it.

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  19. #26
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    If Trevor Bauer could have fetched a return of say a Top 50 prospect Iíd at least listen.

    But I donít believe that for a second.

    So having said that, if we had traded Bauer, who is pitching today as the Reds go for a DH sweep that if done would get them within a game of the wildcard?

    Iím not a huge believer but you gotta go for it.
    Thatís another thing, the return for Bauer would be nowhere near his worth as the #1 on this team. Not only are prospects somewhat unknown commodities but teams have been much stingier and overvaluing them for the last few TDLs and they most likely would have tried to take the Reds to the woodshed with Bauer being an impending FA.


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  20. #27
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Can we close this thread?
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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  22. #28
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    This wasn’t a good take from the start. Even less so 48 hours later. Imagine being 1 game back of a playoff spot in September and advocating we should have traded our best player when we haven’t done jack in years. I’ll pass on the rebuild.
    Last edited by HammerTime; 09-14-2020 at 10:52 PM.

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  24. #29
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I disagree. Bauer is an ace. In the expanded playoffs, adding an ace is a huge difference maker.
    Someone would have given up a lot for Bauer.
    A compensation pick for losing a free agent has very little value. Look at the Reds' history. I am trying to remember what compensation picks actually worked out. I think Lorenzen and Winker might have been comp picks, I am not sure, but there's
    scores of other guys (as well as 1st and 2nd round regular picks) that have flamed out.

    It would not have been difficult to flip Bauer for a couple of prospects that would have at least been solid MLB players (ie Senzel level, not stars, but solid starters). When you trade for prospects , you are getting guys with some minor league time, it's a lot
    safer bet than the draft.. The prospects are easier to project.

    Sure, there's a chance the Reds might have screwed it up, but I like the odds better than a compensation pick.

    Bottom line is that Dick Williams can't admit he made a mistake this year. So instead of cutting his losses by trying to sell Bauer and perhaps other players, he doubled down and added two players in a hopeless season. At least he didn't give up much
    to get those guys, and maybe those guys help in 2021, but it was a big miscalculation, which we will regret next year.
    The Reds may end up missing the playoffs, but I disagree with the bolded.

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  26. #30
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Not to mention if the Reds make the playoffs maybe Bauer actually resigns here? At least remembers ownership and management pushed in the chips. Gaining some trust here in committing to win.


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